2015 Gold Cup

[loveracing]

Really like your thinking loveracing with regards to Smad Place.

I definitely think wih horses such as Road to Riches, Silviniaco Conti, On His Own and potentially Coneygree this GC is going to be a good truly run race this year which is really going to suit the better stayers up the hill.

With his liking for Cheltenham and better ground I could certainly see Smad Place making the frame at a price

Hi Lessey and welcome on board the forum.

FYI - Smad Place is not a horse I fancy for the GC, it was just an interetsing write up taken from Matt Tombs / Oddscher.

 

[Old Vic]

Missed Holywell ...any views on him ?

AP quote below

McCoy said: "He jumped well after the first. It's amazing how different a horse he is in the spring. He just seems to be better for some reason.

"He was the highest rated novice (chaser) last season after Aintree and he'll do nothing but keep improving.

"He is definitely a horse who will have a good chance in the Gold Cup."

 

[iainmcf]

I never seen Hollywell in action but in an underwhelming Gold Cup field he is another who you could make a case for, a spring horse whose won at Chelters and trained for one race only.Trouble is you could damn near make a case for all the runners this year,I would not be surprised whatever one this year

 

[mayo]

My main thing I have against Holywell is I dont like horses coming from Handicap company ( as per last 2 fez's) into Grade 1 races.

I thought the same about Sir Des Champs and was nearly wrong

If you like Holywell got to back Ma F too ?

 

[Mytentoryours]

I never seen Hollywell in action but in an underwhelming Gold Cup field he is another who you could make a case for, a spring horse whose won at Chelters and trained for one race only.Trouble is you could damn near make a case for all the runners this year,I would not be surprised whatever one this year

Hit the nail on the head there. Lots of possible winners of this.

 

[dazzler]

Nice piece from the donn

After Djakadam was beaten in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November off a mark of 142, when he finished a tired and drained eighth, some 30 lengths behind the winner Many Clouds, people put a line through him and they moved on.

But rewind seven months. Djakadam was travelling well in the JLT Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last March when he came down at the fourth last fence. Of course, that was too far out to know how he would have fared, but he had done everything right up until that point. He had jumped just about every fence well, and he had settled into a lovely rhythm for Paul Townend just behind the leaders.

He actually didn't do too much wrong at the fourth last fence either. He just got in a little tight, clipped the top of the birch and just couldn't get his legs out in front of him into 'land' position on time.

He was travelling as well as any of his rivals at that point, and he was travelling better than most. It is more than possible that he would have won the race if he had stood up. However, given the evidence that we have now, it is probably reasonable to assume that he would have finished at least among the three horses who fought out the finish.

At the time that the Hennessy was run, those three horses were rated, respectively, 159, 161 and 159. Djakadam was racing in the Hennessy of a mark of 142. In truth, on the evidence that we had at the time, and without the hype, 5/1 about him for the Hennessy was actually too big. He was one of the best-handicapped horses in training.

So how is he going to win a Gold Cup if he couldn't win a Hennessy off a mark of 142? It is a reasonable question, but the answer lies in the fact that he had a rushed preparation for the Hennessy and in subsequent events, in his Thyestes Chase win.

We couldn't see that much of him through the fog at Gowran Park that day, even with the camera sticking out the sun-roof of the car that followed the field around, but what we saw was good. His jumping was good, his jump at the second last fence in particular was superb, and he stayed on really well to win impressively.

So it was only a handicap chase. A Grade 1 chase is different, and a Gold Cup is different again. But we have been here before. There is precedent. When On His Own won the Thyestes Chase last year, he carried 11st 6lb, he raced off a mark of 142 and he won by six lengths. When Djakadam won it this year, he carried 11st 10lb, he raced off a mark of 145 and he won by eight lengths. Djakadam carried 4lb more, he raced off a mark that was 3lb higher and he won by two lengths further.

On His Own was beaten a short head in last year's Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Also, On His Own was 10-years-old and had raced 10 times over fences going into last year's Thyestes, Djakadam was six-years-old and had raced four times over fences going into this year's race. The Saint Des Saints gelding still has massive scope for progression.

This year's Gold Cup is an open one. There is no Best Mate, no Denman, no Kauto Star. Silviniaco Conti is well clear on Timeform ratings, but, like it or not, he does have the Cheltenham thing to overcome. He is zero for three there, zero for two in Gold Cups.

He may well be a different horse this year to the horse who wavered on the hill last year, he may have improved for the fitting of cheekpieces. But he actually recorded a higher Timeform rating for winning the King George last season - before he was beaten in the Gold Cup - than the one that he recorded for winning the King George this season.

He is obviously a top class staying chaser, but he still has to prove that he can be as good at Cheltenham as he is at Kempton or Haydock.

Very fast ground would be a slight concern for Djakadam, simply because he is such a big horse. Also, the fact that he fell on his only attempt at Cheltenham is not ideal. But he seemed to be handling the track well last year, and he was travelling and jumping really well on the good ground before his mishap at fourth last. He should be okay on similar ground this year and, if it happens to come up a little softer, that would be a bonus.

Add in the fact that he is trained by Willie Mullins and that he will probably be ridden by Ruby Walsh, and the case is compelling. A price of 17.016/1 on the Exchange is big.

 

[Old Vic]

Good stuff Dazzler. Multiple Donn fans on the board.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Is Djakadam not a bit young at 6 to be running in the Gold cup, how many of this age group have won the race, can't be many that have even tried I wouldn't have thought, can't just remember how old Long Run was when he won, think he may have been 6, but he seemed to go on a downward spiral after that, even though he won the following seasons King George, he was then third in the Gold cup then followed a route to the National. His recent runs have looked like those of a horse in terminal decline, same could happen to Djakadam if they ask too much of him at an early age, could emulate Long Run though I suppose and win this one, maybe that would suit them fine.

 

[Yeehaa]

He is a looker that Djakadam. French bred I presume.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

He is a looker that Djakadam. French bred I presume.

He's a really big horse too, maybe that's what's encouraging them to think Gold cup

 

[Old Vic]

Ascot Preview

PN: have no worries that Silviniaco Conti acts around Cheltenham, as he was travelling when he fell in the race two years ago."He had a few little mishaps training, but he is much more assured now. His last two wins have been two of the best performances of his career and he had a nice racecourse gallop with Sam Winner on Wednesday. On form he is the one to beat.

Sam Winner is the main danger ! He is in good form and loves it around Cheltenham and he needs to be fresh, which he will be. He is the sort of horse that could run into a place at a big price.

BO: Silviniaco Conti is a worthy fav, but Road To Riches the Irish threat

AC: Aidan wouldn't run the novice Coneygree in the Gold Cup, it is a big jump up. 12-1 for Gold Cup, but would be nearly favourite for RSA

All tip Silviniaco Conti to win, Road To Riches & Hollywell get shouts as alternative options

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Ascot Preview

PN: have no worries that Silviniaco Conti acts around Cheltenham, as he was travelling when he fell in the race two years ago."He had a few little mishaps training, but he is much more assured now. His last two wins have been two of the best performances of his career and he had a nice racecourse gallop with Sam Winner on Wednesday. On form he is the one to beat.

Sam Winner is the main danger ! He is in good form and loves it around Cheltenham and he needs to be fresh, which he will be. He is the sort of horse that could run into a place at a big price.

BO: Silviniaco Conti is a worthy fav, but Road To Riches the Irish threat

AC: Aidan wouldn't run the novice Coneygree in the Gold Cup, it is a big jump up. 12-1 for Gold Cup, but would be nearly favourite for RSA

All tip Silviniaco Conti to win, Road To Riches & Hollywell get shouts as alternative options

I've lost count of the number of times I've listened to Paul Nichols talk up one or more of his horses then ignored what he says and go another way, only to sit shaking my head when he is proved right. Now he's saying SC is a worthy fav with the main danger being Sam Winner, still available at 33/1. I'm already on SC at 20/1 courtesy of one of those special ante-post doubles with the King George/Gold cup, so now I have to ask how will I feel if SW noses ahead of him on the run-in with me having, once again, ignored PN, I think it must be worth a few quid ew, who knows more about winning a Gold cup than him.

 

[mayo]

I've lost count of the number of times I've listened to Paul Nichols talk up one or more of his horses then ignored what he says and go another way, only to sit shaking my head when he is proved right. Now he's saying SC is a worthy fav with the main danger being Sam Winner, still available at 33/1. I'm already on SC at 20/1 courtesy of one of those special ante-post doubles with the King George/Gold cup, so now I have to ask how will I feel if SW noses ahead of him on the run-in with me having, once again, ignored PN, I think it must be worth a few quid ew, who knows more about winning a Gold cup than him.

His horses are going to go off the boil at some stage though ?

I have previous with Sam Winner too.

Beaten 4/1 favourite in the Triumph - 4th
Beaten 4/1 favourite in Pertemps - finished 18/24


5th in last years RSA at 12/1 - behind Ballycasey, Smad Place, Morning Assembly, O F Boy would give you a glimmer but Ill pass.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

His horses are going to go off the boil at some stage though ?

I have previous with Sam Winner too.

Beaten 4/1 favourite in the Triumph - 4th
Beaten 4/1 favourite in Pertemps - finished 18/24


5th in last years RSA at 12/1 - behind Ballycasey, Smad Place, Morning Assembly, O F Boy would give you a glimmer but Ill pass.

I know what you mean but Nicholls gets so many of these calls right, and when they go off the boil it seems largely due to the training regime taking the edge off a horse because they are preparing for a big race down the line. If he says Sam Winner is the danger to SV it suggests to me that he's showing an upward curve in his prep at home, Nicholls tends to be the most forthright trainer there is when it comes to keeping the public informed.

 

[loveracing]

I know what you mean but Nicholls gets so many of these calls right, and when they go off the boil it seems largely due to the training regime taking the edge off a horse because they are preparing for a big race down the line. If he says Sam Winner is the danger to SV it suggests to me that he's showing an upward curve in his prep at home, Nicholls tends to be the most forthright trainer there is when it comes to keeping the public informed.

In last years stable tour SW was one of their most fancied horses and he has obviously been improving this season looking at his results. I peronally think he ran a cracker for most of the way in the Lexus and he could well be "a" danger if he really does like the Chelt track and better ground seems no issue.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

In last years stable tour SW was one of their most fancied horses and he has obviously been improving this season looking at his results. I peronally think he ran a cracker for most of the way in the Lexus and he could well be "a" danger if he really does like the Chelt track and better ground seems no issue.

Agreed LR, I think it's a good idea to take on board what PN says, even if you don't act on it he always gives me the impression he tries to be honest with his assessments of his horses, and realistic, so if he's bullish there's usually good reason

 

[mayo]

In last years stable tour SW was one of their most fancied horses and he has obviously been improving this season looking at his results. I peronally think he ran a cracker for most of the way in the Lexus and he could well be "a" danger if he really does like the Chelt track and better ground seems no issue.

I have him down as a soft ground slogger

Form on good is 46FF315

 

[loveracing]

Agreed LR, I think it's a good idea to take on board what PN says, even if you don't act on it he always gives me the impression he tries to be honest with his assessments of his horses, and realistic, so if he's bullish there's usually good reason

Well Lac Fontana was a big fancy in 2013 and did not perform in the Triumph. Then the following year he was also fancied and ended up winning the County Hurdle beating Arctic Fire, who I thought got blind sided and should have won. So I wouldn't take PN's quotes lightly coming up to Chelts.

 

[loveracing]

Yep I agree Mayo, I also think SW is a slogger and doesn't have that extra kick home. Whether the Chelt track suits him good I don't know.

 

[mayo]

Well Lac Fontana was a big fancy in 2013 and did not perform in the Triumph. Then the following year he was also fancied and ended up winning the County Hurdle beating Arctic Fire, who I thought got blind sided and should have won. So I wouldn't take PN's quotes lightly coming up to Chelts.

A fair point. I always approach trainers comments with caution. They have to be careful not to upset owners. Jockeys making choices always do a lot of it too. It was a tough decision blah blah.