AP emotional there. Last day in Leopardstown and first Hennessy win. Has four nice rides for JP in feature races now.
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2015 Gold Cup
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loveracing
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I am interested to see how RTR will get on with track cos I know he prefers good ground. He hammered a big field(though no GC horses) in the Galway Plate on good and seemed to cope ok with soft in the Lexus. Jumps sound.
MrMcGoldrick
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Shutthefrontdoor must be the National horse then.
I had Carlingford Lough backed.
Could run in both, wouldn't be the first time JP has done that, for what it's worth I have a few quid on Shutthefrontdoor for the Gold cup
mayo
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Are National weights this week or next ?
Carlingford Lough going to be carrying more weight now but you can hardly expect them to pass up on a Grade 1. Irish Hennessy is a big race in its own right and brillant scenes there yesterday.
MrMcGoldrick
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Weights announced 17th Feb I think, Lord Windermere is entered, can't see them running him if he wins the Gold cup
mayo
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Coneygree for Gold Cup?
The eight-year-old put up a terrific front-running display when making it three wins from as many starts over fences in Saturday’s Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury, and connections are starting to wonder if this year’s open-looking Gold Cup might even be the easier option.
Sara Bradstock, wife of trainer Mark, said on Sunday: "He’s incredible, but it’s nerve-wracking. He’s not a Gold Cup horse at home, where he’s become quite idle, so every time he runs and steps it up again it’s another bonus.
"Before Saturday the needle was pointing very much towards the RSA, but after winning like that it’s much closer to the middle. In fairness he’s won enough prize-money now for us to go to the line before choosing so that we can take everything into consideration.
"We’re not greedy and we’d be happy to win the RSA, but with Silviniaco Conti such a strong favourite despite being beaten last year the Gold Cup is tempting. It might even be the easier race."
Bradstock reported Coneygree "very fresh", which suggests he did not take too much out of himself. She added he has earned a break now, albeit a short one.
She said: "We’ll wrap him in cotton wool and he’ll have an easy time now, but he wouldn’t take more than a week of that without exploding. We’ll then build him up again for Cheltenham, but it’s all about keeping a lid on him.
"Any injuries he’s had aren’t training injuries. They’re through being such an idiot. He’s a thug, but a likeable one. Mark has now taken to wearing three coats when he goes into his box as he bites so much. He’s given up trying to stop him and just wears protective armour now!"
While the Bradstocks were delighted with the ride Coneygree was given by substitute jockey Richard Johnson, there is no question of the suspended Nico de Boinville losing the mount.
Bradstock added: “We feel very sorry for Nico, who had a whip ban. In some stables it might have cost him the ride in future, but we’re not going to jock him off.”
The eight-year-old put up a terrific front-running display when making it three wins from as many starts over fences in Saturday’s Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury, and connections are starting to wonder if this year’s open-looking Gold Cup might even be the easier option.
Sara Bradstock, wife of trainer Mark, said on Sunday: "He’s incredible, but it’s nerve-wracking. He’s not a Gold Cup horse at home, where he’s become quite idle, so every time he runs and steps it up again it’s another bonus.
"Before Saturday the needle was pointing very much towards the RSA, but after winning like that it’s much closer to the middle. In fairness he’s won enough prize-money now for us to go to the line before choosing so that we can take everything into consideration.
"We’re not greedy and we’d be happy to win the RSA, but with Silviniaco Conti such a strong favourite despite being beaten last year the Gold Cup is tempting. It might even be the easier race."
Bradstock reported Coneygree "very fresh", which suggests he did not take too much out of himself. She added he has earned a break now, albeit a short one.
She said: "We’ll wrap him in cotton wool and he’ll have an easy time now, but he wouldn’t take more than a week of that without exploding. We’ll then build him up again for Cheltenham, but it’s all about keeping a lid on him.
"Any injuries he’s had aren’t training injuries. They’re through being such an idiot. He’s a thug, but a likeable one. Mark has now taken to wearing three coats when he goes into his box as he bites so much. He’s given up trying to stop him and just wears protective armour now!"
While the Bradstocks were delighted with the ride Coneygree was given by substitute jockey Richard Johnson, there is no question of the suspended Nico de Boinville losing the mount.
Bradstock added: “We feel very sorry for Nico, who had a whip ban. In some stables it might have cost him the ride in future, but we’re not going to jock him off.”
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Kevin Blake on Irish Hennessy
The market for the featured Hennessy Gold Cup reflected the staying chase division as a whole, with it being wide open and full of unknowns. It was encouraging to see two second-season chasers in the shape of the John Kiely-trained Carlingford Lough and the Ted Walsh-trained Foxrock come out on top over their more experienced rivals and both sets of connections will have cause for encouragement that their horses can improve again.
Carlingford Lough, having just his second start of the campaign, did very well to overcome a mistake at the penultimate fence to grind out the victory. He had a very long and testing campaign as a novice last season and that he has come back and shown further improvement is a testament to both his constitution and the ability of his trainer. Foxrock clearly hasn’t finished improving yet and with his sometimes careful jumping seeming to becoming less of an issue, he rates as arguably an even more promising a prospect than the winner. He is not entered in the Gold Cup, but could well be supplemented for it.
Of the others, there was great encouragement to taken from the run of the Jim Culloty-trained Lord Windermere. It was surprising to see him sent to the lead before the second-last fence and he was entitled to weaken on the run-in in the circumstances, but he ran a very sweet race and has better prospects of retaining his Gold Cup crown than many are giving him credit for.
Whatever about the horses, the races, the horsemen and women, the tracks, the prize money and anything else you want to add into the mix that makes Irish horse racing great, for me, what was really showcased at Leopardstown is something that in my opinion no racing nation anywhere in the world can match and that no amount of money can ever buy, the passion of the racing public.
The market for the featured Hennessy Gold Cup reflected the staying chase division as a whole, with it being wide open and full of unknowns. It was encouraging to see two second-season chasers in the shape of the John Kiely-trained Carlingford Lough and the Ted Walsh-trained Foxrock come out on top over their more experienced rivals and both sets of connections will have cause for encouragement that their horses can improve again.
Carlingford Lough, having just his second start of the campaign, did very well to overcome a mistake at the penultimate fence to grind out the victory. He had a very long and testing campaign as a novice last season and that he has come back and shown further improvement is a testament to both his constitution and the ability of his trainer. Foxrock clearly hasn’t finished improving yet and with his sometimes careful jumping seeming to becoming less of an issue, he rates as arguably an even more promising a prospect than the winner. He is not entered in the Gold Cup, but could well be supplemented for it.
Of the others, there was great encouragement to taken from the run of the Jim Culloty-trained Lord Windermere. It was surprising to see him sent to the lead before the second-last fence and he was entitled to weaken on the run-in in the circumstances, but he ran a very sweet race and has better prospects of retaining his Gold Cup crown than many are giving him credit for.
Whatever about the horses, the races, the horsemen and women, the tracks, the prize money and anything else you want to add into the mix that makes Irish horse racing great, for me, what was really showcased at Leopardstown is something that in my opinion no racing nation anywhere in the world can match and that no amount of money can ever buy, the passion of the racing public.
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And a timeform
Leopardstown’s Hennessy card on Sunday followed the weekend’s script, in that AP McCoy retained the headlines in lifting Carlingford Lough to success in the feature. That performance was a career-best for the horse (162) and he’s more progressive than 17 starts over fences would suggest, but he’ll have to stay on that trajectory to feature in the Gold Cup.
Besides the winner there wasn’t much to cover in the Hennessy from a ratings perspective. Runner-up Foxrock was stepping up in grade but improved by only 1 lb on the day, to 161. He can get better still, but the small jump he’s had to make to go from handicapper to Grade 1 contender tells us plenty about the Irish staying chasers.
To touch on the wider picture of staying chasers: connections of Silviniaco Conti (176) must be irked at the repeated assertions that this is an open Gold Cup. With all of the major trials now out of the way, he’s 11 lb clear on Timeform ratings of those likely to run against him. The seemingly received wisdom that this Gold Cup is up for grabs gets only as far as assuming he’s not capable of his best around Cheltenham. If that proves to be the case, it is admittedly as open a Gold Cup as we’ve seen since 2006.
Leopardstown’s Hennessy card on Sunday followed the weekend’s script, in that AP McCoy retained the headlines in lifting Carlingford Lough to success in the feature. That performance was a career-best for the horse (162) and he’s more progressive than 17 starts over fences would suggest, but he’ll have to stay on that trajectory to feature in the Gold Cup.
Besides the winner there wasn’t much to cover in the Hennessy from a ratings perspective. Runner-up Foxrock was stepping up in grade but improved by only 1 lb on the day, to 161. He can get better still, but the small jump he’s had to make to go from handicapper to Grade 1 contender tells us plenty about the Irish staying chasers.
To touch on the wider picture of staying chasers: connections of Silviniaco Conti (176) must be irked at the repeated assertions that this is an open Gold Cup. With all of the major trials now out of the way, he’s 11 lb clear on Timeform ratings of those likely to run against him. The seemingly received wisdom that this Gold Cup is up for grabs gets only as far as assuming he’s not capable of his best around Cheltenham. If that proves to be the case, it is admittedly as open a Gold Cup as we’ve seen since 2006.
Nicholls talking up Sam Winner in the RP.
Taking the Hennessy as a major form boost.
STD rides - will have been well named if he is right !
Taking the Hennessy as a major form boost.
STD rides - will have been well named if he is right !
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Another good read from Ben
3. The Cheltenham Gold Cup picture just got even more interesting…
Saturday: Coneygree demolished his more experienced opposition in the Denman Chase.
Sunday: Carlingford Lough showed his standard resolution to dig deep under AP McCoy and land the Irish Hennessy.
Both horses now feature prominently in the Gold Cup betting. Both horses add immense intrigue to an already mouthwatering contest.
Of the two I would be keener on the chances of Carlingford Lough over the novice Coneygree. In fact I don’t think Coneygree should be going for the Gold Cup at all. It can be a rough race and Mark Bradstock’s novice is still learning his trade, that’s why he is called a novice. The Gold Cup really is no place for a novice.
The Denman Chase was relatively straightforward for Coneygree. He wasn’t really meeting with top class 3 milers there. He was given his own space out front. He had his preferred soft underfoot conditions. He was getting weight from most of the others. It was a fine piece of placement from his trainer.
Running him in the Gold Cup would be a terrible piece of placement. Unlike the Denman Chase things won’t be run to suit him and conditions are unlikely to be in his favour. Let him complete his apprenticeship and run him in the RSA, it’s the sensible option and would give his career the correct trajectory to gun for the Gold Cup in 2016. Don’t ruin a potential star by gunning him for the top too soon.
Carlingford Lough, on the other hand, his time is now.
He very much reminds me of 2012 Gold Cup winner Synchronised in that he has his own method of getting from A to B and whilst it may not be pretty it certainly works (you don’t win 3 Grade 1’s and a Galway Plate without jumping plenty fences!). Like I said about Synchronised at the time if this one is within reaching distance of the pack coming down the hill he will be staying on back up the hill as strong as anything else, possibly stronger.
On the trends front Carlingford Lough makes for a solid fit and I would expect him to be bang there when I pull together my trends for NTF members the evening before the Gold Cup. He wouldn’t be bang on with the Dosage stats but he isn’t a negative on that score and I wouldn’t be chucking him out of my thinking based on that angle alone.
He should also have the bonus of that retiring dude in the saddle! And for a horse like Carlingford Lough that is certainly no bad thing!
- See more at: http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/ap-mccoy-retires/#sthash.PhVTZso9.OMu11Y6d.dpuf
3. The Cheltenham Gold Cup picture just got even more interesting…
Saturday: Coneygree demolished his more experienced opposition in the Denman Chase.
Sunday: Carlingford Lough showed his standard resolution to dig deep under AP McCoy and land the Irish Hennessy.
Both horses now feature prominently in the Gold Cup betting. Both horses add immense intrigue to an already mouthwatering contest.
Of the two I would be keener on the chances of Carlingford Lough over the novice Coneygree. In fact I don’t think Coneygree should be going for the Gold Cup at all. It can be a rough race and Mark Bradstock’s novice is still learning his trade, that’s why he is called a novice. The Gold Cup really is no place for a novice.
The Denman Chase was relatively straightforward for Coneygree. He wasn’t really meeting with top class 3 milers there. He was given his own space out front. He had his preferred soft underfoot conditions. He was getting weight from most of the others. It was a fine piece of placement from his trainer.
Running him in the Gold Cup would be a terrible piece of placement. Unlike the Denman Chase things won’t be run to suit him and conditions are unlikely to be in his favour. Let him complete his apprenticeship and run him in the RSA, it’s the sensible option and would give his career the correct trajectory to gun for the Gold Cup in 2016. Don’t ruin a potential star by gunning him for the top too soon.
Carlingford Lough, on the other hand, his time is now.
He very much reminds me of 2012 Gold Cup winner Synchronised in that he has his own method of getting from A to B and whilst it may not be pretty it certainly works (you don’t win 3 Grade 1’s and a Galway Plate without jumping plenty fences!). Like I said about Synchronised at the time if this one is within reaching distance of the pack coming down the hill he will be staying on back up the hill as strong as anything else, possibly stronger.
On the trends front Carlingford Lough makes for a solid fit and I would expect him to be bang there when I pull together my trends for NTF members the evening before the Gold Cup. He wouldn’t be bang on with the Dosage stats but he isn’t a negative on that score and I wouldn’t be chucking him out of my thinking based on that angle alone.
He should also have the bonus of that retiring dude in the saddle! And for a horse like Carlingford Lough that is certainly no bad thing!
- See more at: http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk/ap-mccoy-retires/#sthash.PhVTZso9.OMu11Y6d.dpuf
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| Latest Entries Horse | Age | Owner | Trainers |
| BALLYCASEY (IRE) | 8 | Susannah Ricci | Willie Mullins IRE |
| BOBS WORTH (IRE) | 10 | The Not Afraid Partnership | Nicky Henderson |
| BOSTON BOB (IRE) | 10 | Andrea & Graham Wylie | Willie Mullins IRE |
| CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE) | 9 | J P McManus | John Kiely IRE |
| CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) | 8 | Susannah Ricci | Willie Mullins IRE |
| CONEYGREE | 8 | The Max Partnership | Mark Bradstock |
| DJAKADAM (FR) | 6 | Susannah Ricci | Willie Mullins IRE |
| DON COSSACK (GER) | 8 | Gigginstown House Stud | Gordon Elliott IRE |
| FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE) | 10 | Gigginstown House Stud | Mouse Morris IRE |
| HOLYWELL (IRE) | 8 | Gay Smith | Jonjo O'Neill |
| HOME FARM (IRE) | 8 | Chris Jones | Henry de Bromhead IRE |
| HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (FR) | 8 | Mrs Julian Blackwell | Venetia Williams |
| LORD WINDERMERE (IRE) | 9 | Dr Ronan Lambe | Jim Culloty IRE |
| MA FILLEULE (FR) | 7 | Simon Munir | Nicky Henderson |
| MANY CLOUDS (IRE) | 8 | Trevor Hemmings | Oliver Sherwood |
| ON HIS OWN (IRE) | 11 | Andrea & Graham Wylie | Willie Mullins IRE |
| RIVER CHOICE (FR) | 12 | Fergus Wilson | Richard Chotard FR |
| ROAD TO RICHES (IRE) | 8 | Gigginstown House Stud | Noel Meade IRE |
| SAM WINNER (FR) | 8 | Angela Yeoman | Paul Nicholls |
| SILVINIACO CONTI (FR) | 9 | Chris Giles & Potensis Bloodstock Ltd | Paul Nicholls |
| SMAD PLACE (FR) | 8 | Trish Andrews | Alan King |
| SPRING HEELED (IRE) | 8 | Dr Ronan Lambe | Jim Culloty IRE |
| THEATRE GUIDE (IRE) | 8 | Jean Bishop | Colin Tizzard |
| THE GIANT BOLSTER | 10 | Simon Hunt & Gary Lambton | David Bridgwater |
<tbody>
</tbody>
loveracing
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Matt Tombs / Tuesday 10th February 2015 / 16:17
Gold Cup Preview
You always have to be philosophical when a big priced ante-post bet gets injured, and in Dynaste’s case, it was probably the least bad horse in the portfolio for it to happen to, as David Pipe was probably going to run him in the Ryanair anyway. With the final major trials for the Gold Cup run either side of the Irish Sea last weekend, its time for another look at the race.
I’m itching to oppose the favourite Silviniaco Conti (100/30). On this season’s form 100/30 is, if anything, a big price. If the race were run on a flat track, I’d have him as a 2/1 shot. However, it isn’t and its rare for horses that have been beaten on their first run in a Gold Cup to ever win it, (See More Business in 1999 was the last and he was carried out the previous year.) Silviniaco Conti has had two bad experiences in the Gold Cup, falling 2 seasons ago and then going sideways on the run in last season with the race at his mercy. The cheekpieces have clearly helped but I just can’t back a horse, even a top class one like him, with that sort of Cheltenham record. Horses need to dig to the depths to win a Gold Cup, and he’s got some serious scar tissue that I think will find him out.
By contrast, Road To Riches (9/1) has just the right profile. He’s a 2nd season chaser on the up that’s won a key trial in the Lexus. Evaluating his chances really depends on evaluating that form. Runner-up On His Own and 4th Boston Bob let it down in the Irish Hennessy but 5th Carlingford Lough bounced back in that race. On form you could argue his price is a bit skinny, but he’ll be miles better on decent ground and is just the sort of progressive horse that wins the Gold Cup. I think he’s decent value, especially as he proved in the Lexus he didn’t need to lead.
Carlingford Lough (12/1) had been held up in the first half of the season, (John Kiely’s yard has been out of sorts all winter,) before just a decent 5th on his reappearance in the Lexus. He improved markedly when just running Foxrock out of the Irish Hennessy. He’s tough and stays – in some ways he reminds me of the same owner’s Synchronised. He started as handicapper, and can be a sticky jumper who gets himself out of contention in the first half of the race – but if AP can nurse him round as he did Synchronised in the Gold Cup, he could provide the champ with a fairytale retirement present. He never got in a rhythm in the RSA on his only run at Cheltenham though, and I’m concerned he’ll get too far behind.
It sounds an odd thing to suggest of a winner of the Hennessy (3m2½f) and Betbright Cup (3m1½f,) but I’m not convinced Many Clouds (10/1) is a definite stayer. Before his Hennessy win, he’d looked better at intermediate trips. He was apparently exhausted after the Hennessy and they crawled round in the Betbright, so I’m slightly concerned whether he’d get home in a fast run race. He was winning the Hennessy off 151, (9lb lower than Bobs Worth and 10lb lower than Denman,) and I think he did two stayers for toe in the Betbright. He’s a classy, improving type but I’m not sure he’s quite up to Gold Cup standard – I’d also be really concerned about him handling genuinely good ground.
Defending champions tend to be over-bet in the Gold Cup but you couldn’t say that about Lord Windermere (14/1). He ran well in the Irish Hennessy, travelling much better than in the Lexus, but ultimately weakening on the run in. It’s hard to know what to make of that performance – perhaps he’s still short of peak fitness and will be a different proposition again at Cheltenham. They did go steadily in the Gold Cup last year though and perhaps he just got outstayed at Leopardstown where they went pretty quickly, (albeit that seems illogical over 2½f shorter.) 14/1 is probably decent value.
Holywell (14/1) is an unknown quantity. He only seems to come alive in the spring, when the all important blinkers go back on. He’s no chance on this season’s form and I’m not convinced the promise of his novice campaign justifies him being such a short price. If he wins, they’ll be plenty of people keen to explain that they understood how Jonjo campaigns his horses etc – but I don’t like backing horses with that sort of profile unless its at big prices.
Coneygree (16/1) was impressive in the Denman, beating a solid 161 rated yardstick easily. He’s only had 3 runs so is hugely inexperienced for a Gold Cup, but few novices take their chance, so the fact one hasn’t won since Captain Christy 41 years ago is a bit misleading. He’s 12/1 NRNB, (might run in the RSA instead,) and if he runs here is likely to be shorter on the day given his profile. As well as his lack of experience, I’d be concerned about genuinely good ground not suiting.
With the other Mullins contenders not enhancing their claims, it’s likely his main chance will rest with 6 year old Djakadam (16/1). He won the hugely competitive Thyestes Chase last time off 145, (a 3lb higher mark than On His Own won the Thyestes off before being edged out in the Gold Cup last season.) He’s always been highly regarded at Closutton and, whilst he has plenty of improvement to find, he could easily find it. He has stamina to prove but looked to be staying on well at Gowran and I’m optimistic he’ll get the trip. He has raced mainly on testing ground and his breeding suggests he might need plenty of cut, which would be a concern if it came up genuinely good ground in the Gold Cup. I might have missed the price by then, but he’s one I’m going to look at again near race-day, when I have a better idea of the likely going conditions.
Bobs Worth (16/1) is an easy one to scrub off the list. He had an incredibly hard race when winning 2 years ago and that looked to tell in last season’s race. He ran no race in the Lexus on his only run this season and the vibes aren’t great. I think he’s on the downgrade and am keen to oppose him.
Of the others, Foxrock (14/1) needs supplementing and the vibes from Ted Walsh are that he thinks him next season’s horse. Shutthefrontdoor (20/1) isn’t quick enough and looks more likely to be aimed at the National. Sam Winner (33/1) ran a good race to be 3rd in the Lexus but I doubt is quite good enough.
The interesting one at a big price is Smad Place, (25/1). He ran a blinder to be touched off in the RSA last season, (well ahead of Sam Winner and Carlingford Lough). With the pair he split, O’Faolains Boy and Morning Assembly, not running this season it’s not easy to assess the form, but its possible the market has incorrectly considered it a substandard RSA.
Smad Place was only 20l 5th off 155 in the Hennessy but Alan King said he was short of fitness there, having not had a prep run, (to protect his mark). He was given a decent break after a hard race at Newbury and then was 1¼l 2nd to Many Clouds, (who gave 8lb,) in the Betbright Cup over 3m1½f at Cheltenham.
In theory that leaves him plenty to find with Many Clouds but they crawled round in the Betbright, (all six runners within a couple of lengths turning into the straight.) The crawl-sprint nature of the race allowed Many Clouds to get first run and didn’t suit Smad Place, who was too keen and whose strong suit is stamina. Both his runs have been on soft ground this season and, whilst he acts on soft, he loves a sound surface, relishing the fast ground in last season’s RSA – all of which suggests he can improve significantly in the Gold Cup.
As a stayer he’s susceptible to the sort of horse with a turn of foot that often wins this, (having had stamina question marks beforehand), but unusually, there isn’t really a horse with that sort of profile this year, other than possibly Djakadam.
Smad Place has been placed at the last 3 Festivals, (2 World Hurdles before last season’s RSA,) and I think he’s got an excellent chance of being placed again. More importantly, in what looks a weak renewal, I can see him winning if there’s a truly run race.
1pt e/w Smad Place in the Gold Cup @ 25/1 NRNB
Gold Cup Preview
You always have to be philosophical when a big priced ante-post bet gets injured, and in Dynaste’s case, it was probably the least bad horse in the portfolio for it to happen to, as David Pipe was probably going to run him in the Ryanair anyway. With the final major trials for the Gold Cup run either side of the Irish Sea last weekend, its time for another look at the race.
I’m itching to oppose the favourite Silviniaco Conti (100/30). On this season’s form 100/30 is, if anything, a big price. If the race were run on a flat track, I’d have him as a 2/1 shot. However, it isn’t and its rare for horses that have been beaten on their first run in a Gold Cup to ever win it, (See More Business in 1999 was the last and he was carried out the previous year.) Silviniaco Conti has had two bad experiences in the Gold Cup, falling 2 seasons ago and then going sideways on the run in last season with the race at his mercy. The cheekpieces have clearly helped but I just can’t back a horse, even a top class one like him, with that sort of Cheltenham record. Horses need to dig to the depths to win a Gold Cup, and he’s got some serious scar tissue that I think will find him out.
By contrast, Road To Riches (9/1) has just the right profile. He’s a 2nd season chaser on the up that’s won a key trial in the Lexus. Evaluating his chances really depends on evaluating that form. Runner-up On His Own and 4th Boston Bob let it down in the Irish Hennessy but 5th Carlingford Lough bounced back in that race. On form you could argue his price is a bit skinny, but he’ll be miles better on decent ground and is just the sort of progressive horse that wins the Gold Cup. I think he’s decent value, especially as he proved in the Lexus he didn’t need to lead.
Carlingford Lough (12/1) had been held up in the first half of the season, (John Kiely’s yard has been out of sorts all winter,) before just a decent 5th on his reappearance in the Lexus. He improved markedly when just running Foxrock out of the Irish Hennessy. He’s tough and stays – in some ways he reminds me of the same owner’s Synchronised. He started as handicapper, and can be a sticky jumper who gets himself out of contention in the first half of the race – but if AP can nurse him round as he did Synchronised in the Gold Cup, he could provide the champ with a fairytale retirement present. He never got in a rhythm in the RSA on his only run at Cheltenham though, and I’m concerned he’ll get too far behind.
It sounds an odd thing to suggest of a winner of the Hennessy (3m2½f) and Betbright Cup (3m1½f,) but I’m not convinced Many Clouds (10/1) is a definite stayer. Before his Hennessy win, he’d looked better at intermediate trips. He was apparently exhausted after the Hennessy and they crawled round in the Betbright, so I’m slightly concerned whether he’d get home in a fast run race. He was winning the Hennessy off 151, (9lb lower than Bobs Worth and 10lb lower than Denman,) and I think he did two stayers for toe in the Betbright. He’s a classy, improving type but I’m not sure he’s quite up to Gold Cup standard – I’d also be really concerned about him handling genuinely good ground.
Defending champions tend to be over-bet in the Gold Cup but you couldn’t say that about Lord Windermere (14/1). He ran well in the Irish Hennessy, travelling much better than in the Lexus, but ultimately weakening on the run in. It’s hard to know what to make of that performance – perhaps he’s still short of peak fitness and will be a different proposition again at Cheltenham. They did go steadily in the Gold Cup last year though and perhaps he just got outstayed at Leopardstown where they went pretty quickly, (albeit that seems illogical over 2½f shorter.) 14/1 is probably decent value.
Holywell (14/1) is an unknown quantity. He only seems to come alive in the spring, when the all important blinkers go back on. He’s no chance on this season’s form and I’m not convinced the promise of his novice campaign justifies him being such a short price. If he wins, they’ll be plenty of people keen to explain that they understood how Jonjo campaigns his horses etc – but I don’t like backing horses with that sort of profile unless its at big prices.
Coneygree (16/1) was impressive in the Denman, beating a solid 161 rated yardstick easily. He’s only had 3 runs so is hugely inexperienced for a Gold Cup, but few novices take their chance, so the fact one hasn’t won since Captain Christy 41 years ago is a bit misleading. He’s 12/1 NRNB, (might run in the RSA instead,) and if he runs here is likely to be shorter on the day given his profile. As well as his lack of experience, I’d be concerned about genuinely good ground not suiting.
With the other Mullins contenders not enhancing their claims, it’s likely his main chance will rest with 6 year old Djakadam (16/1). He won the hugely competitive Thyestes Chase last time off 145, (a 3lb higher mark than On His Own won the Thyestes off before being edged out in the Gold Cup last season.) He’s always been highly regarded at Closutton and, whilst he has plenty of improvement to find, he could easily find it. He has stamina to prove but looked to be staying on well at Gowran and I’m optimistic he’ll get the trip. He has raced mainly on testing ground and his breeding suggests he might need plenty of cut, which would be a concern if it came up genuinely good ground in the Gold Cup. I might have missed the price by then, but he’s one I’m going to look at again near race-day, when I have a better idea of the likely going conditions.
Bobs Worth (16/1) is an easy one to scrub off the list. He had an incredibly hard race when winning 2 years ago and that looked to tell in last season’s race. He ran no race in the Lexus on his only run this season and the vibes aren’t great. I think he’s on the downgrade and am keen to oppose him.
Of the others, Foxrock (14/1) needs supplementing and the vibes from Ted Walsh are that he thinks him next season’s horse. Shutthefrontdoor (20/1) isn’t quick enough and looks more likely to be aimed at the National. Sam Winner (33/1) ran a good race to be 3rd in the Lexus but I doubt is quite good enough.
The interesting one at a big price is Smad Place, (25/1). He ran a blinder to be touched off in the RSA last season, (well ahead of Sam Winner and Carlingford Lough). With the pair he split, O’Faolains Boy and Morning Assembly, not running this season it’s not easy to assess the form, but its possible the market has incorrectly considered it a substandard RSA.
Smad Place was only 20l 5th off 155 in the Hennessy but Alan King said he was short of fitness there, having not had a prep run, (to protect his mark). He was given a decent break after a hard race at Newbury and then was 1¼l 2nd to Many Clouds, (who gave 8lb,) in the Betbright Cup over 3m1½f at Cheltenham.
In theory that leaves him plenty to find with Many Clouds but they crawled round in the Betbright, (all six runners within a couple of lengths turning into the straight.) The crawl-sprint nature of the race allowed Many Clouds to get first run and didn’t suit Smad Place, who was too keen and whose strong suit is stamina. Both his runs have been on soft ground this season and, whilst he acts on soft, he loves a sound surface, relishing the fast ground in last season’s RSA – all of which suggests he can improve significantly in the Gold Cup.
As a stayer he’s susceptible to the sort of horse with a turn of foot that often wins this, (having had stamina question marks beforehand), but unusually, there isn’t really a horse with that sort of profile this year, other than possibly Djakadam.
Smad Place has been placed at the last 3 Festivals, (2 World Hurdles before last season’s RSA,) and I think he’s got an excellent chance of being placed again. More importantly, in what looks a weak renewal, I can see him winning if there’s a truly run race.
1pt e/w Smad Place in the Gold Cup @ 25/1 NRNB
Lessey
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Really like your thinking loveracing with regards to Smad Place.
I definitely think wih horses such as Road to Riches, Silviniaco Conti, On His Own and potentially Coneygree this GC is going to be a good truly run race this year which is really going to suit the better stayers up the hill.
With his liking for Cheltenham and better ground I could certainly see Smad Place making the frame at a price
I definitely think wih horses such as Road to Riches, Silviniaco Conti, On His Own and potentially Coneygree this GC is going to be a good truly run race this year which is really going to suit the better stayers up the hill.
With his liking for Cheltenham and better ground I could certainly see Smad Place making the frame at a price
Holywell out today.
O'Neill said yesterday: "He's in grand form at home but we've been waiting for good ground. We're going to Kelso because it's supposed to be better ground. We could either go there or go nowhere and you'd like to see him put in a good round of jumping before Cheltenham.
"His first two runs have been poor and I wouldn't make any excuses for him, he has to put his best foot forward tomorrow. The blinkers are back on, there's no time to be messing around now."
O'Neill said yesterday: "He's in grand form at home but we've been waiting for good ground. We're going to Kelso because it's supposed to be better ground. We could either go there or go nowhere and you'd like to see him put in a good round of jumping before Cheltenham.
"His first two runs have been poor and I wouldn't make any excuses for him, he has to put his best foot forward tomorrow. The blinkers are back on, there's no time to be messing around now."
I was disappointed with Smad Place but Wayne wasn't
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I was delighted with Smad Place in the BetBright Cup as tactically things did not work out in his favour as they went steadily early and he is all about stamina.
He was quite gassy and keen but that was nice to see as the boss (Alan King) had left him on the fresher side after he'd taken a while to come to hand after the Hennessy at Newbury in November.
He has jumped super and just left his backend in one of the ditches but has run his race. He was getting eight pounds from Many Clouds and Dynaste but I think that he will improve again come March and it can be a different scenario.
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