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Oldest 2yo's in Spring system

Shrews

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Easy this one

2pts to win any 2yo born in January, 1pt e/w 10/1+ (RP Predicted price)
1pt to win any 2yo born before 14th February, 0.5 e/w 10/1+ (RP Predicted price)

The general idea is that a few months difference in a very young horses life can be a significant factor in how forward and developed the animal is. As it gets older it becomes less significant. Turf races only

I will run it until the end of May, see how it does.
 
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I am more of a jumps man but enjoying your stuff shrews.

Totally get this angle !

Remember reading about a relative age effect in Galdwells outliers ....it's a big thing in professional hockey. Definition from Wikipedia ...

The term ‘relative age effect’ (RAE) is used to describe a bias, evident in the upper echelons of youth sport[1] and academia,[2][3] where participation is higher amongst those born early in the relevant selection period (and correspondingly lower amongst those born late in the selection period) than would be expected from the normalised distribution of live births. The selection period is usually the calendar year, the academic year or the sporting season.

The term ‘month of birth bias’ is also used to describe the effect and ‘season of birth bias’ is used to describe similar effects driven by different hypothesised mechanisms.

The bias results from the common use of age related systems, for organizing youth sports competition and academic cohorts, based on specific cut-off dates to establish eligibility for inclusion. Typically a child born after the cut-off date is included in a cohort and a child born before the cut-off date is excluded from it.

The most commonly used cut-off date for youth international sporting competition is 1 January. The IOC[4] and FIFA[5] and the 6 international football confederations (AFC, CAF, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, OFC and UEFA[6]) all use 1 January as their administrative cut-off date when determining an athlete's eligibility to compete in youth competitions, children born before a specified cut-off date are excluded.




No reason why it shouldn't also exist in your sample - good luck !
 
I am no flat expert either but don't breeders program accordingly - are most flat breds born in First 3/4 months of the year ?
 
Breeding is February to July I believe with an 11 month gestation period, which means the horse is typically born January to May/early June. It seems logical that a horse should be bred to get as much racing out of its life as possible (and to maximise the amount of prize money it can earn), with the flat starting end of March then a January horse surely has more races in it than a May horse who wouldn't even be 2 years old yet (even if it is officially)

I believe that it works out at 6.5 years to a humans year before a horse is three and then slows down afterwards (20 horse years = 60 in human age). Therefore a 2yo is 13 in human age, whereas as a 3yo is 18. That means a January 2yo could be equal to 15+ and they could be racing against horses who are only 13 in human years.

That's not to say a 13yo human can't be as advanced as a 15yo, but horse breeding is more of an exact science and horses are bred to be as forward as possible and therefore to me it seems unlikely that a May 2yo will be as forward as a January 2yo.

Of course, training, ability, condition etc all play their part as always, but it seems like an angle that might be worth checking to see if there's anything in it. Last year I did ok with it from memory, nothing staggering, but profitable nevertheless.
 
Thanks Shrew - will keep an eye out for qualifiers.
 
Monday 14th April

Pontefract 2.10
Little Sista (15th January)
Appleberry (13th February)
Ar Colleen Aine (5th February)

Windsor 2.20
June's Moon (22nd January)
Arousal (10th February)
Frozen Princess (6th February)
Kidmeforever (2nd February)
Magical Daze (25th January)
 
Monday 14th April

Pontefract 2.10
Little Sista (15th January) - 9/1 - Unplaced 9th - -2pts
Appleberry (13th February) - 33/1 - Unplaced 6th - -1pt
Ar Colleen Aine (5th February) - 16/1 - Unplaced 4th - -1pt

Windsor 2.20
June's Moon (22nd January) - 20/1 - Unplaced 4th - -2pts
Arousal (10th February) - 8/1 - Unplaced 11th - -1pt
Frozen Princess (6th February) - 16/1 - Unplaced 8th - -1pt
Kidmeforever (2nd February) - 33/1 - Unplaced 12th - -1pt
Magical Daze (25th January) - NON-RUNNER

So, -9pts on the day, a great start. But as you can see from the prices, it normally only takes 1 to go in to put it back in the black

No flat races tomorrow
 
Two 4th places in there too...
 
Wednesday 16th April

1.55 Beverley
Bahamian Art - 1st February

2.30 Beverley
Kylach Me If You Can - 15th January

2.20 Newmarket
Big Mcintosh - 4th February
Ralph Mactell - 22nd January
 
1.55 Beverley
Bahamian Art - 1st February - 11/10f - Unplaced 5th - -1pt

2.30 Beverley
Kylach Me If You Can - 15th January - 11/2 - Unplaced 2nd - -2pts

2.20 Newmarket
Big Mcintosh - 4th February - 11/1 - Unplaced 6th - -1pt
Ralph Mactell - 22nd January - 100/1 - Unplaced 8th - -2pts

- 6pts
Acc - 15pts
 
Thursday 17th April

1.45 Newmarket
El Che - 28th January
London Life - 20th January
Rise Up Lotus - 25th January

1.55 Ripon
Midterm Break - 7th February
 
1.45 Newmarket
El Che - 28th January - 3rd 40/1 - +7
London Life - 20th January - Unplaced (4th) 18/1 - -2
Rise Up Lotus - 25th January - Unplaced (6th) 20/1- -2

1.55 Ripon
Midterm Break - 7th February - Unplaced (2nd) 11/2 -1

+2pts
acc -13pts

Up on the day ! :cool:
 
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Good Friday

2.10 Musselburgh
Kepples Best (12th February)
 
Good Friday

2.10 Musselburgh
Kepples Best (12th February) - Unplaced (6th) 100/1

-1pt
Acc -14pts
 
Saturday 19th April

6.30 Bath
Majenski (9th Feb)
May One (1st Feb)
Stinky Socks (12th Feb)

5.15 Notts
Burtonwood (26th Jan)
Celestial Vision (13th Feb)
Dr No (2nd Feb)
Makin a Statement (13rd Feb)
Rose Of Kiev (7th Feb)
 
Saturday 19th April

6.30 Bath
Majenski (9th Feb) - Unplaced (11th)- 8/1- -1
May One (1st Feb) - Unplaced (10th)- 25/1 - -1
Stinky Socks (12th Feb) - Unplaced (2nd) - 5/1 - -1

5.15 Notts
Burtonwood (26th Jan) - WON - Evens +2
Celestial Vision (13th Feb) - Unplaced 3rd (8/1)- 1
Dr No (2nd Feb) - Unplaced (5th) 13/8 -1
Makin a Statement (13rd Feb) - Unplaced (6th) 25/1 -1
Rose Of Kiev (7th Feb) - Unplaced (4th) 50/1 -1

-5
Acc -19pts

Could do with a big price going in :(
 
Monday 21st April

1.50 Yarmouth
Abseil (10th Feb)
Halation (8th Jan)
Jay Gee Speedfit (26th Jan)
Twin Point (20th Jan)
 
Monday 21st April

1.50 Yarmouth
Abseil (10th Feb) - Won 5/4 +1.25
Halation (8th Jan) - Unplaced (5th) 16/1 -2pts
Jay Gee Speedfit (26th Jan) - Unplaced (12th) 66/1 -2pts
Twin Point (20th Jan) - Unplaced (4th) 3/1 -2pts

-4.75
Acc -23.75
 
Tuesday 22nd April

4.20 Yarmouth
Brown Velvet (12th Feb)
Arousal (10th Feb)