• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

robith said:
I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it
Click to expand...

Genuinely considering doing the same Robith - and that for me would be very rare for a festival race, although I’m much better these days at not having a bet ‘for the sake of it’!
 
robith said:
I'm lost on this race. So many stats. I also can't remember my last handicap winner (Superb Story I think). Might just swerve it
Click to expand...

Stats
Only 2 horses meet all main stats
singlefarmpayment
Final Nudge (might go Kim Muir)
Gold Present met all the stats except the (80day run) stat.
 
kinloch brae said:
I don't see Snow Falcon at all. Far too many negatives. 5th in two Cheltenham runs, looking to travel well and finishing tamely both times. Had the run of the race in the Flogas and finished weakly again. Didn't jump hurdles well and really isn't that good over fences. He jumps some fine but is hesitant at too many others. In a big field he will surely need to jump better. I don't think soft ground is ideal for him either. He has been backed a few times in the past but not delivered. Suspect he will always be an under achiever. I am pretty sure Meade would have seen him as a graded horse for this year's Festival so if he comes here even the trainer will have revised his expectations downwards.
Click to expand...

Intersting.... I've not got much time tonight (Tonight is the last night I'll spend quality time with the wife before the Saturday after the festival:devilish:)

In response to the negatives you've got...

1. 5th in two runs at Cheltenham -
Came 5th in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle, which isn't bad at all. Certainly doesn't give me a negative about his abilility at the track.... Footpad was 4th in a CH and might win an Arkle 40 mins earlier... I think his 5th just showed he isn't a grade 1 hurdler. Also 5th in a Neptune beaten 5.5L, similar thoughts on that... doesn't prove he doesn't act around Cheltenham for me.

2. Finished tamely in the Flogas
Pretty confident that Flogas was the best piece of novice chase form we've seen (or will see outside of spring festivals) and to finish 5th beaten 5.5L again isn't a negative for me..it just bmeans he is a good handicapper rather than grade 1 novice chaser.

3. Didn't jump hurdles well, or fences either
Not something I've got time to look at now, wasn't a note I'd made before about him but will look at this again.

4. Soft ground not ideal for him
I'm still working on the basis it'll be good-to-soft, so not worried about this yet... but his highest RPR this season is on Soft ground and highest ever is Yielding to Soft... so that doens't worry me massively

5. Backed a few times in the past and not delivered/Suspect will always be an under achiever
Can't really argue that or qualify that point... if he gets well backed I'll see it as a positive that at least I am pciking out the right horses...if he doesn't, I'll still think I am right in identifying him haha

6. Pretty sure Meade thinks he was a graded horse...
Meade is usually pretty bullish .... and I haven't said and don't think Snow Falcon is a grade 1 winning horse... but I do think he can win the Ultima or Brown Plate at this years festival.


I've backed him NRNB in this and the Brown Plate, and wouldn't put anyone off either still.
 
Last edited:
Kevloaf said:
Intersting.... I've not got much time tonight (Tonight is the last night I'll spend quality time with the wife before the Saturday after the festival:devilish:)

In response to the negatives you've got...

1. 5th in two runs at Cheltenham -
Came 5th in the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle, which isn't bad at all. Certainly doesn't give me a negative about his abilility at the track.... Footpad was 4th in a CH and might win an Arkle 40 mins earlier... I think his 5th just showed he isn't a grade 1 hurdler. Also 5th in a Neptune beaten 5.5L, similar thoughts on that... doesn't prove he doesn't act around Cheltenham for me.

2. Finished tamely in the Flogas
Pretty confident that Flogas was the best piece of novice chase form we've seen (or will see outside of spring festivals) and to finish 5th beaten 5.5L again isn't a negative for me..it just bmeans he is a good handicapper rather than grade 1 novice chaser.

3. Didn't jump hurdles well, or fences either
Not something I've got time to look at now, wasn't a note I'd made before about him but will look at this again.

4. Soft ground not ideal for him
I'm still working on the basis it'll be good-to-soft, so not worried about this yet... but his highest RPR this season is on Soft ground and highest ever is Yielding to Soft... so that doens't worry me massively

5. Backed a few times in the past and not delivered/Suspect will always be an under achiever
Can't really argue that or qualify that point... if he gets well backed I'll see it as a positive that at least I am pciking out the right horses...if he doesn't, I'll still think I am right in identifying him haha

6. Pretty sure Meade thinks he was a graded horse...
Meade is usually pretty bullish .... and I haven't said and don't think Snow Falcon is a grade 1 winning horse... but I do think he can win the Ultima or Brown Plate at this years festival.


I've backed him NRNB in this and the Brown Plate, and wouldn't put anyone off either still.
Click to expand...

He was fifth in the 2015 Neptune.

I won't dwell on it because I have already said the same elsewhere. I think the Flogas win was a good enough springboard for Monalee to take a poor JLT but with so many horses within a few lengths I don't think the form is as good as some have suggested. Snow Falcon sat in the box seat but having challenged off the final bend just fell away.
 
kinloch brae said:
He was fifth in the 2015 Neptune.

I won't dwell on it because I have already said the same elsewhere. I think the Flogas win was a good enough springboard for Monalee to take a poor JLT but with so many horses within a few lengths I don't think the form is as good as some have suggested. Snow Falcon sat in the box seat but having challenged off the final bend just fell away.
Click to expand...

Yeah I edited the 1 run bit, I forgot to go back more than 2 years haha. 5th in a Neptune also not bad though!
 
Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.
 
kinloch brae said:
Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.
Click to expand...


Coo Star is being tipped like it's going to bolt in, I can't see it at all! Happy for this to go off fav!
 
Last Goodbye given a shout in this by Dan Barber at the Timeform preview - ran well in the Close Brothers last year & a good winner last time out.
 
kinloch brae said:
Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.
Click to expand...

opatcho said:
Coo Star is being tipped like it's going to bolt in, I can't see it at all! Happy for this to go off fav!
Click to expand...

What do you like / have backed/ will be backing?
 
Kevloaf said:
What do you like / have backed/ will be backing?
Click to expand...

I like Traffic Fluide, I have backed it to win at large prices, and will back it again on the day to Place

- Entered for National, so expect him to take 3 mile route
- Ran in last years Champion Chase, outpaced but finished ok considering
- Expect to run better on better ground (better than Ascot and Haydock soft)
- Often hits a flat spot, hope the undulations will allow Moore to get a breather into him to reduce any impact of this
- Finished the season on 156 OR (highest was 158), two Grade 1 (King George and the Betfair chase!) and three Grade 2 races later, he arrives at the festival on 143!
- Ran in 3 handicaps back in 2015, only been in one since - where he tried to set the pace over 2m3f in the Old Roan, only to be outpaced.. he then kept on from 2 out

His two stand out performance last year were in the Champ Chase (Good-Soft ground), and at Ascot (good ground).

Good to soft ground on Tuesday, and I'll be very happy! Soft ground, I start to look towards the place market more. Then again, it will be the second chase run of the day, so ground shouldnt be that bad for him

This is also a huge step down in class, and will running off 11 lbs less from his run in the Roan Chase
 
My money is on singlefarmpayment but also like Royal Vacation at value.
 
kinloch brae said:
Amazed at the money for Coo Star Sivola and Snow Falcon. Beginning to see why favourites win nothing when it comes to the handicaps. Must have been a lot of similar gambles gone west since that last winning favourite.

That win of Coo Star Sivola proved next to nothing last time. He had to do little more than negotiate the fences. About as far from solid form as you can get.

I am struggling with Dingo Dollar as well. Up a stone for beating 8 rivals in two ordinary races. Will find this a little different.
Click to expand...

Yeah I am of the same opinion when it comes to Coo Star Sivola, I just don't get it, but a nice false favourite to have, it keeps the other prices competitive. I actually like Snow Falcon though as a horse, I just think he goes better on flat tracks, his most eye catching run prior to falling IMO was at Newbury last season when it looked as though he may put it up to UNWIMH, but 3m @ Newbury isn't the same as 3m+ @ Cheltenham (obviously) and think he will struggle again, but my main concern with him, and I am not too sure how it reads when it comes to this race, but he's been on the go, including flat racing, since August, that's a long old season for him, it didn't work last season for Cheltenham, and I can't see it working again!
 
Rather Be looks to have a very good chance of winning the Close. Bros. He will be competing at the highest level next year. Ryanair horse


Sorry wrong thread ...again.
 
King also raised the intriguing possibility of the JP McManus-owned Yanworth running in the Ultima Handicap Chase, due off 40 minutes before the Champion Hurdle.

Two from four over fences this term, the eight-year-old holds an entry in the RSA Chase, and King has not ruled out the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

There might be, however, a third option at the festival.

"He's in very good form and we're about to start cranking him up now," said King, speaking to Racing UK. "He'll do some serious work this week. We'll get him there in top shape then decide where we go.

"Off 149 he might well have an entry in the Ultima."
 
Think King’s been reading the ‘Willie Mullins on Putting Everyone Away’ guide...
 
Can't Catch Me said:
King also raised the intriguing possibility of the JP McManus-owned Yanworth running in the Ultima Handicap Chase, due off 40 minutes before the Champion Hurdle.

Two from four over fences this term, the eight-year-old holds an entry in the RSA Chase, and King has not ruled out the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

There might be, however, a third option at the festival.

"He's in very good form and we're about to start cranking him up now," said King, speaking to Racing UK. "He'll do some serious work this week. We'll get him there in top shape then decide where we go.

"Off 149 he might well have an entry in the Ultima."
Click to expand...

That quotes from about a month ago isn't it?! He's confirmed for the stayers
 
Yeah...

A day later he confirmed Stayers :highly_amused:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom