RSA Chase 2018

[Folski]

On Shattered Love, she couldn't go with them at all last year at the festival. Maybe she was burnt out by the time she rocked up to the festival, but shes had a busy enough campaign already this year and if I was on her I'd like to hope she goes straight there. I think there is some question marks on the ground and the form of SL.

Kelly had Mall Dini beaten several times over at very short odds last year, yet he ran great in the Kim Muir, thought Katie gave both him and Wonderful Charm way too much to do. It's interesting that Percy had a shocker before coming out and hosing up in a handicap off 145 next time despite being rated 159 at Punchestown over hurdles. I really think it's all about one day for Kelly.

 

[Scooby91]

On Shattered Love, she couldn't go with them at all last year at the festival. Maybe she was burnt out by the time she rocked up to the festival, but shes had a busy enough campaign already this year and if I was on her I'd like to hope she goes straight there. I think there is some question marks on the ground and the form of SL.

Kelly had Mall Dini beaten several times over at very short odds last year, yet he ran great in the Kim Muir, thought Katie gave both him and Wonderful Charm way too much to do. It's interesting that Percy had a shocker before coming out and hosing up in a handicap off 145 next time despite being rated 159 at Punchestown over hurdles. I really think it's all about one day for Kelly.

She does go straight there.


On the trainer of PP
The rsa is not a handicap you can plot yourself in.

 

[Folski]

She does go straight there.


On the trainer of PP
The rsa is not a handicap you can plot yourself in.

Very true, it's also not run in November.

Don Poli is the only winner to have won all his chase starts since Denman.

 

[Scooby91]

Very true, it's also not run in November.

Don Poli is the only winner to have won all his chase starts since Denman.

Hes done nothing since November. To improve from that. But I'll leave it as that.

It will soon be the wednesday and the rsa before we know it

 

[ComplyOrDie]

On Shattered Love, she couldn't go with them at all last year at the festival. Maybe she was burnt out by the time she rocked up to the festival, but shes had a busy enough campaign already this year and if I was on her I'd like to hope she goes straight there. I think there is some question marks on the ground and the form of SL.

Being a Gigginstown owned horse I can be 90% certain she was brought with chasing in mind, so what she achieved over hurdles was a big bonus, including a listed and Grade 3 hurdle back in Ireland. I actually thought she was campaigned well, until the festival, where for some unknown reason they put her in the Neptune, when she had never raced beyond 2m 2f back home. After that she had a long enough season to be put away anyway, which they didn't and her final seasonal performance showed that her exertions from the season had taken its toll.

She looks a fantastic chaser so far, and this time round they have actually given her a trip over 3m before just sending her to the festival as an unknown quantity, not to mention she has also been given more time to freshen up than last season, she has finished ahead of PP already this season, and unfortunately we do not know how things would have panned out with Monalee when she won the Grade 1 over Christmas, coincidentally the same race Don Poli won before taken the RSA that season and the same race No More Heroes won, before that ill-fated run (RIP) in the RSA that same season.

Both horses were given breaks after that Christmas race, just like Shattered Love this time around and I think she goes to Cheltenham with a lot better chance than the 20/1 that is on offer, or even the 14/1 NRNB available.

 

[Robbante]

Being a Gigginstown owned horse I can be 90% certain she was brought with chasing in mind, so what she achieved over hurdles was a big bonus, including a listed and Grade 3 hurdle back in Ireland. I actually thought she was campaigned well, until the festival, where for some unknown reason they put her in the Neptune, when she had never raced beyond 2m 2f back home. After that she had a long enough season to be put away anyway, which they didn't and her final seasonal performance showed that her exertions from the season had taken its toll.

She looks a fantastic chaser so far, and this time round they have actually given her a trip over 3m before just sending her to the festival as an unknown quantity, not to mention she has also been given more time to freshen up than last season, she has finished ahead of PP already this season, and unfortunately we do not know how things would have panned out with Monalee when she won the Grade 1 over Christmas, coincidentally the same race Don Poli won before taken the RSA that season and the same race No More Heroes won, before that ill-fated run (RIP) in the RSA that same season.

Both horses were given breaks after that Christmas race, just like Shattered Love this time around and I think she goes to Cheltenham with a lot better chance than the 20/1 that is on offer, or even the 14/1 NRNB available.

Was there any excuse for her run in the JLT last year? That's the one thing putting me off, was well backed that day and just didn't go at all. On bare form, that run aside, you've every right to be as confident about her as anyone could be about Presenting Percy

 

[Folski]

Hes done nothing since November. To improve from that. But I'll leave it as that.

It will soon be the wednesday and the rsa before we know it

He won a handicap off 145 on the bridle over 3.5m. The form of which includes a horse which fell while in 3rd at the last of a €110k chase and a Thyestes runner up.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Was there any excuse for her run in the JLT last year? That's the one thing putting me off, was well backed that day and just didn't go at all. On bare form, that run aside, you've every right to be as confident about her as anyone could be about Presenting Percy

I assume you mean the Neptune?

And no, no apparent reason anyway, other than the fact for me they campaigned her over shorter all season, then for some reason they stick her in the Neptune, one of the hardest novice hurdle races to win of the season, which is over further.

It still bemuses me why they done that, and the only reason I have behind it was it was Gigginstown's only representative, they had nothing to go at the race with so gave her a shot. Either way, she's a better chaser than hurdler anyway

 

[Robbante]

I assume you mean the Neptune?

And no, no apparent reason anyway, other than the fact for me they campaigned her over shorter all season, then for some reason they stick her in the Neptune, one of the hardest novice hurdle races to win of the season, which is over further.

It still bemuses me why they done that, and the only reason I have behind it was it was Gigginstown's only representative, they had nothing to go at the race with so gave her a shot. Either way, she's a better chaser than hurdler anyway

Yes neptune sorry. I'd be far more inclined to take the 20s for her than the 3s PP, but then I would say that as i'm a little bitter that i'm not on PP at about the same price that Shattered Love is now. PP price now is based on hype rather than form, don't think anyone can argue against that

 

[Folski]

On shattered love. O’Leary recently mentioned he acquired Apples Jade due to the increase of fixtures and prize money/status of mares races. So she may not have been acquired with the intention of being a 3m chaser like most GG horses.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes neptune sorry. I'd be far more inclined to take the 20s for her than the 3s PP, but then I would say that as i'm a little bitter that i'm not on PP at about the same price that Shattered Love is now. PP price now is based on hype rather than form, don't think anyone can argue against that

Yeah, I've heard the Irish believe PP is one of their bankers of the festival, I'd not be so sure of that, but he's a good horse.

 

[Scooby91]

He won a handicap off 145 on the bridle over 3.5m. The form of which includes a horse which fell while in 3rd at the last of a €110k chase and a Thyestes runner up.

None of that has anything to do with a grade 1 novice chase off levels

 

[Scooby91]

I assume you mean the Neptune?

And no, no apparent reason anyway, other than the fact for me they campaigned her over shorter all season, then for some reason they stick her in the Neptune, one of the hardest novice hurdle races to win of the season, which is over further.

It still bemuses me why they done that, and the only reason I have behind it was it was Gigginstown's only representative, they had nothing to go at the race with so gave her a shot. Either way, she's a better chaser than hurdler anyway

I backed her for the neptune ew at 50s. She just diddnt turn up on the day

 

[kinloch brae]

I think Shattered Love has had three runs outside mare's company, winning one. The vast majority of her form is in small field, relatively uncompetitive mare's races. I suppose her chance depends to large extent as to what you think of Jury Duty. Having looked to be travelling well that horse was run over by Presenting Percy in the Pertemps. I doubt very much Jury Duty has improved more than Presenting Percy for a fence. I would be very surprised if Shattered Love threatens to place in the RSA.

 

[Scooby91]

I think Shattered Love has had three runs outside mare's company, winning one. The vast majority of her form is in small field, relatively uncompetitive mare's races. I suppose her chance depends to large extent as to what you think of Jury Duty. Having looked to be travelling well that horse was run over by Presenting Percy in the Pertemps. I doubt very much Jury Duty has improved more than Presenting Percy for a fence. I would be very surprised if Shattered Love threatens to place in the RSA.

Jury duty jumps brilliantly. Nothing to do with PP . But if jury duty hasn't improved considerably for fences I'd very suprised.

 

[kinloch brae]

None of that has anything to do with a grade 1 novice chase off levels

It might have everything to do with it should that be the best form on offer. Really difficult to give that performance an accurate rating because he cruised round and bolted up. I would far sooner have the experience of racing in a big field, rather than pottering round against a handful of runners.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

None of that has anything to do with a grade 1 novice chase off levels

How can going from a mark of 145 to 156 not be relevant? He will be higher rated than most previous winners going into the race this year.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think Shattered Love has had three runs outside mare's company, winning one. The vast majority of her form is in small field, relatively uncompetitive mare's races. I suppose her chance depends to large extent as to what you think of Jury Duty. Having looked to be travelling well that horse was run over by Presenting Percy in the Pertemps. I doubt very much Jury Duty has improved more than Presenting Percy for a fence. I would be very surprised if Shattered Love threatens to place in the RSA.

OK, we'll look at it another way, which bit of chase form makes you believe PP is better than Jury Duty / Shattered Love over fences?

The handicap win? Or the Grade 2 where he finished behind both Jury Duty & Shattered Love?

FWIW, I'm not adament Shattered Love will win the RSA, but I feel she is massively overpriced and overlooked, and that PP is actually massively over hyped, probably because his connection can plot a handicap win, but as Scooby has said, this is a Grade 1 Novice Chase, not a handicap.

 

[Folski]

OK, we'll look at it another way, which bit of chase form makes you believe PP is better than Jury Duty / Shattered Love over fences?

The handicap win? Or the Grade 2 where he finished behind both Jury Duty & Shattered Love?

FWIW, I'm not adament Shattered Love will win the RSA, but I feel she is massively overpriced and overlooked, and that PP is actually massively over hyped, probably because his connection can plot a handicap win, but as Scooby has said, this is a Grade 1 Novice Chase, not a handicap.

Are you asking in any given race at any give distance at any time of the year or specifically asking in the RSA chase, because they are two very different things, in my opinion.

Might Bite was beaten by Binge Drinker early last season, yet Binge Drinker is not favourite for the Gold Cup.

Regarding the race where PP was well beat by JD & SL. I would suggest some of the following arguments, in defence of PP.

JD & SL both were having their 3rd run of the season, this was PP 2nd run of the season. I am suggesting the other 2 were fitter.

JD & SL started their season on the 8th and 7th of October respectively, compared to PP who started on the 30th of October. This race took place on the 19th of November, coming 20 days after a win on heavy ground having had 6 months off.

Willie Mullins is not overly active in October or November and his entries really step up toward the end of November.
Gordon having lost the trainers championship last year at Punchestown despite having a very nice lead at the start of the week was very keen to build up as much of a lead as possible while Willie was getting up and running, this is evidenced by the fact that between Down Royal's Jwine meeting and Fairyhouses Hatton's Grace meeting there was 11 Grade 1 or 2 races in Ireland. Elliott was responsible for 21 of the 65 runners in these races (32.3%) and won 7 of the 11 races (63.6%) with his highest place finishers in races he did not win as follows, A Toi Phil (2nd in Clonmel Oil), Ball D'Arc (3rd in Skymas Chase), Mick Jazz (3rd in WKD Hurdle) & Campeador (Fell in Morgiana).

Taking the above into account, I would imagine Gordon's were very forward in November. Kelly had 5 runners none of which managed even a place. Gordon on the other hand had 141 runners 34 of which won (24.1%) with another 36 placing meaning 49.6% of his runners either won or placed.

Pat Kelly has had winners at Cheltenham the last 2 years, I would not imagine he is overly keen on a race in mid November, Gordon on the other hand very much is, as it is time to make hay while the sun is shinning, the sun being Willie's inactivity.

I'd also suggest that in the horse losing it probably resulted in a decent price on his next start 7/2 and also got some juice in a price for RSA. Which I would imagine interest the training a lot more than a grade 2.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Are you asking in any given race at any give distance at any time of the year or specifically asking in the RSA chase, because they are two very different things, in my opinion.

Might Bite was beaten by Binge Drinker early last season, yet Binge Drinker is not favourite for the Gold Cup.

Regarding the race where PP was well beat by JD & SL. I would suggest some of the following arguments, in defence of PP.

JD & SL both were having their 3rd run of the season, this was PP 2nd run of the season. I am suggesting the other 2 were fitter.

JD & SL started their season on the 8th and 7th of October respectively, compared to PP who started on the 30th of October. This race took place on the 19th of November, coming 20 days after a win on heavy ground having had 6 months off.

Willie Mullins is not overly active in October or November and his entries really step up toward the end of November.
Gordon having lost the trainers championship last year at Punchestown despite having a very nice lead at the start of the week was very keen to build up as much of a lead as possible while Willie was getting up and running, this is evidenced by the fact that between Down Royal's Jwine meeting and Fairyhouses Hatton's Grace meeting there was 11 Grade 1 or 2 races in Ireland. Elliott was responsible for 21 of the 65 runners in these races (32.3%) and won 7 of the 11 races (63.6%) with his highest place finishers in races he did not win as follows, A Toi Phil (2nd in Clonmel Oil), Ball D'Arc (3rd in Skymas Chase), Mick Jazz (3rd in WKD Hurdle) & Campeador (Fell in Morgiana).

Taking the above into account, I would imagine Gordon's were very forward in November. Kelly had 5 runners none of which managed even a place. Gordon on the other hand had 141 runners 34 of which won (24.1%) with another 36 placing meaning 49.6% of his runners either won or placed.

Pat Kelly has had winners at Cheltenham the last 2 years, I would not imagine he is overly keen on a race in mid November, Gordon on the other hand very much is, as it is time to make hay while the sun is shinning, the sun being Willie's inactivity.

I'd also suggest that in the horse losing it probably resulted in a decent price on his next start 7/2 and also got some juice in a price for RSA. Which I would imagine interest the training a lot more than a grade 2.

I'm asking which bit of chasing form from PP makes him a better chaser than SL or JD? Because the only race they contested to date he finished well behind both, although given your further argument for his case I can take them as valid points, but whichever way I look at it, unless you have the nice prices, he is certainly in the 'no bet' territory at his current price for me. He's a player, but he's not a 3/1 bet IMO.

Might Bite was about to achieve the best bit of novice form at Kempton before his fall, that form, for me, was a level above what PP has achieved this season as a novice, and MB still hung around the 10/1-12/1 for a while after, as I managed to get on board and he became my main bet for this race last year.

My problem isn't so much with PP as a horse, it is the ridiculous hype, because he was plotted for some handicaps, and now his ridiculous price because of the aforementioned. No one bit of form suggests he should be this price for this race, especially not dropping the 2-3pts for winning a below average Grade 2, 3m hurdle race.

I'll be honest, I'm not really that bothered about the training stats, but admire the effort for the argument, however I feel the horses do their talking on the course, and whether Elliott, Mullins, Kelly or any other trainer had horses ready for a certain time of the year, one thing is for sure, they'll all want to have them ready for the festival regardless of what they've been running them in previously.

And regardless of my own thoughts I do wish anyone who is on him, at any price, the best of luck, because we all know Cheltenham is not easy to come out well from, and I think we all need a bit of luck along the way.