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RSA Chase 2018

"Monalee looks a massive player in whichever race he contests at the Festival, but rather than recommend him at 9/2 NRNB for the JLT – the race for which his connections admitted he was under serious consideration following his Grade One Flogas victory at the weekend – I'm tempted into the RSA Chase market, where one of the horses he beat looks over-priced.

In fact,*Dounikos*has been considerably underestimated throughout his novice chase season so far, beating subsequent dual winner Monbeg Notorious (landed the Thyestes off 137 last time) at Gowran and fellow Gordon Elliott stablemate Tombstone at Limerick.

He was 28/1 and 14/1 for those victories respectively and again outran his SP when beaten under two lengths into fourth at 25/1 in Sunday’s Flogas.

It was a massive effort from Dounikos, jumping really well on the outside of the field towards the front rank and there was no fluke about it, despite possibly being favourably positioned tactically.

He'd looked slightly fortunate to win first time out over fences when Al Boum Photo fell at the last at Gowran, but this showed there wouldn't have been much in it, that rival finishing just a length in front of him in second at the weekend, and after just three starts over fences there should be plenty more to come from Elliott's charge.

He didn't scale the heights as a hurdler, looking lazy at times and reaching a peak mark of 123 in that sphere, but that's exactly the type of horse that tends to win the RSA Chase and he's clearly thrived since being faced with the bigger obstacles - like so many Gigginstown horses before him.

Stepping up to three miles is an unknown but the son of Smadoun, who sired Smad Place and Nacarat among others, looks to be crying out for a thorough test of stamina and the biggest danger here in regards to his target may be that he holds an entry in the National Hunt Chase over four miles.

But he looks made for the RSA and given the discrepancy in price with those offering NRNB (16/1 best), in this instance I'm happy to have a pop at 25/1 and live with the consequences if this doesn't end up being his race"

Someone's stealing my work and tipping up dounikos. Looked all over an rsa horse last time out
 
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Kevloaf said:
Yea that is a very good point... I Was livid that he'd absolutely blown his mark for no reason.... but he CLEARLY wasn't negatively affected last season by it?

I don't think we should knock a horse for running... but I think the 4 miler is easier to win so they should go for that! He'd win that far easier ... and I agree with jono's point it might not be a harder race!
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Disappointing, I have been reeled in.

As you know there was really no talk of the horse going for the four miler, other than a few mischievous pundits who presumably hadn't secured a decent price for the RSA. No potential Gold Cup horse is going to run in that race.

Of course you would normally applaud horses running but not in these circumstances unless of course you like to see punters who have landed on a nice price bet get stuffed?

If this is such a bright move I look forward to seeing the horse shorten up.

Seriously, if he wanted to pitch the horse into open company before Cheltenham he shouldn't have run over hurdles and instead gone for the Denman. If he lost it wouldn't have been the end of the world and if he won they could even have considered supplementing for the Gold Cup.

If there is someone who is sitting on a double figure price and thinks this is anything other than a crackpot piece of placing please expand. Somehow I doubt there will be any.
 
I saw him Dounikos tipped for the 4 miler too Scooby! Lisa O'Neill to ride :very_drunk:

It was a good shout IMO too. I had 1 pt ew on at 40/1 after the race :encouragement:
 
I am not really a stats person but I thought it might be worth having a look at the number of runs prior to winning at the Festival. Using the last two years which I don't think is unreasonable and a starting point of the end of October.

Last year three horses had five or more runs prior to winning. They were Presenting Percy and Road To Respect with 5, and Champagne Classic with 7. All Irish and all handicappers.

Two years ago there was only qualifier, Mall Dini 5. Again Irish and a handicapper.

That's 4 winners out of 56, all Irish and all handicappers. Over the same period 8 horses have won with either 1 or no immediate prep race.

So we can see where the plan has come from but on those figures it doesn't look much of a plus, particularly in a Graded race. It goes without saying those associated with the winners who had 4 or less prep are not saying I wish my horse had run again before the Festival.

As an ante-post punter you have to take the rough with the smooth. Injury is disappointing but easier to accept than horses going to the well seemingly once too often. One is bad luck, the other a bad choice? I have had that recently with Maria's Benefit and Espoir D'Allen and now this looks like the hat trick.
 
kinloch brae said:
I am not really a stats person but I thought it might be worth having a look at the number of runs prior to winning at the Festival. Using the last two years which I don't think is unreasonable and a starting point of the end of October.

Last year three horses had five or more runs prior to winning. They were Presenting Percy and Road To Respect with 5, and Champagne Classic with 7. All Irish and all handicappers.

Two years ago there was only qualifier, Mall Dini 5. Again Irish and a handicapper.

That's 4 winners out of 56, all Irish and all handicappers. Over the same period 8 horses have won with either 1 or no immediate prep race.

So we can see where the plan has come from but on those figures it doesn't look much of a plus, particularly in a Graded race. It goes without saying those associated with the winners who had 4 or less prep are not saying I wish my horse had run again before the Festival.

As an ante-post punter you have to take the rough with the smooth. Injury is disappointing but easier to accept than horses going to the well seemingly once too often. One is bad luck, the other a bad choice? I have had that recently with Maria's Benefit and Espoir D'Allen and now this looks like the hat trick.
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Unless I have misread something somewhere regarding this, and if I have I apologize in advance, but what about Defi Du Seuil? He had 5 runs prior to the festival, and readily dotted up at the festival that same season?

Edit: I can see you have "end of October" now! But still, 2 weeks away from that date and you have yourself another winner who wasn't Irish, nor a handicapper as well :)
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Unless I have misread something somewhere regarding this, and if I have I apologize in advance, but what about Defi Du Seuil? He had 5 runs prior to the festival, and readily dotted up at the festival that same season?

Edit: I can see you have "end of October" now! But still, 2 weeks away from that date and you have yourself another winner who wasn't Irish, nor a handicapper as well :)
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I think they are correct. As this was primarily a result of Presenting Percy it would have been unfair to have used another starting date. Perhaps if I went forward two weeks it might have ruled others out from what is already is a very low figure.
 
Lord Windermere had 5 runs from mid November the year he won RSA.
Black Lion had 5 from mid October the year he won RSA.
Boston Angel had 5 runs from the end of October when he won the RSA.
Weapons Amnesty had 5 runs from mid October when he won RSA.

That's 4 of the last 8.

Who would have thought chase experience might prove valuable.
 
Folski said:
Lord Windermere had 5 runs from mid November the year he won RSA.
Black Lion had 5 from mid October the year he won RSA.
Boston Angel had 5 runs from the end of October when he won the RSA.
Weapons Amnesty had 5 runs from mid October when he won RSA.

That's 4 of the last 8.

Who would have thought chase experience might prove valuable.
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The thing I don't like with stats apart form them being different horses. Lord Windermere was very fortunate to win that rsa.
 
Trends and stats form a big part of my analysis but you do have to factor in the odd exception now and again

For novice chasing, I’d actually prefer to have a horse who’s jumped at least 3-4 times. Experience is very handy here
 
Scooby91 said:
The thing I don't like with stats apart form them being different horses. Lord Windermere was very fortunate to win that rsa.
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I really do not think he was he got caught for room and Davy switched and he looked to be coming hard at Boston Bob. I was on Boston Bob that day.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H04U3mnDxB8

As for the stats, I don’t either but basically PP having 5 runs being a disadvantage is absolute nonsense.
 
Folski said:
I really do not think he was he got caught for room and Davy switched and he looked to be coming hard at Boston Bob. I was on Boston Bob that day.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H04U3mnDxB8

As for the stats, I don’t either but basically PP having 5 runs being a disadvantage is absolute nonsense.
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I will watch later but at the time I thought Boston bob would hose up. I diddnt have a bet in the race.

I'm not a pp fan but id agree that in my eyes that would be nonsense. I'd be against him on ability , all known form when stepped up of level weights, his lack of a test at this level over fences. He's going to have to jump cleanly at a pace he's never done before against a calibre of horses he's never encountered before . not on the ammount of runs or any horses in past years etc..

He more of an our duke type to me that needs to get back into a race. And a slow gallop like the irish national would suit. To give him time to jump in his own comfort zone where the leader arent putting him under pressure.
 
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Scooby91 said:
I will watch later but at the time I thought Boston bob would hose up. I diddnt have a bet in the race.

I'm not a pp fan but id agree that in my eyes that would be nonsense. I'd be against him on ability , all known form when stepped up of level weights, his lack of a test at this level over fences. He's going to have to jump cleanly at a pace he's never done before against a calibre of horses he's never encountered before . not on the ammount of runs or any horses in past years etc..

He more of an our duke type to me that needs to get back into a race. And a slow gallop like the irish national would suit. To give him time to jump in his own comfort zone where the leader arent putting him under pressure.
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That’s all fair Scooby.
 
Maybe I am wrong but I would have thought any reasonably minded person could have just chosen to ignore the stats rather than use it as an excuse to just to take a pop.

Any other sheep improve on 'absolute nonsense'?
 
From a Racing Post Tweet...
Terrible news for trainer Anthony Honeyball after he confirms his stable star, Fountains Windfall, who was due to run at Warwick tomorrow, has died following a schooling accident
 
Not even taking into account this race, that is awful s*** luck, and thoughts are with all connections.
 
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