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General Chat

Pisto said:
That’s the trade off I guess. You can’t make them kind of mistakes and win at the Fez unless you’re top top class. Would your opinion change if he hoses up in the TC ?
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Unlikely, I'm looking over the Irish Sea before I look at anything from these shores.
Tingle Creek is a great race, just like the King George, Betfair Chase, Xmas Hurdle, Betfair Hurdle any plenty more, generally won by horses who prove themselves to be the best UK horses, different opposition come March....
 
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Quevega said:
Not even looked but 25-1 is massive.

Just a dick when he runs at Cheltenham though isn't he ?
One of his problems is I also think the jockey is flawed.

I think Nico is one of the worst in terms of psychology that there is.
He has a tendency to suffer from the mentality of the "self fulfilling prophecy"

He could do with an attitude more like McCoy or Bowen (Galatea syndrome)
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Your points re Nico are interesting and certainly food for thought.
As for Jonbon, yes I take your points about Cheltenham and you certainly ain’t the only one!!
He has though finished 1st or 2nd in a fair few races there so were he to turn up and you had a e/w bet at 25 I think you would be more than happy.
As I’ve said before, imo the Tingle Creek is massive now for the horse, and for me will decide where his future lies.
Main thing for me is he shows he’s still capable of competing at the top level, as his last two races, particularly his last one are concerning.
 
25's looks massive but you are very likely throwing away the win bet and just playing for two places. The return on 10 each way for the place AP would be the same as having 20 win on a 2/1 shot on the day.
 
Lobos said:
25's looks massive but you are very likely throwing away the win bet and just playing for two places. The return on 10 each way for the place AP would be the same as having 20 win on a 2/1 shot on the day.
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Yep 2-1 a place.
But it is the Queen Mother and very possible less than 8 starters.
So for a horse like Jonbon 25-1 is well worthy of a bet each way and hope that he doesn't touch a twig, cos as soon as he does they'll both shrink.
I've not bet it, mainly because they are that much of a pair of wet worrying flannels that there's every chance he doesn't run in the race.
I may back him for cheltenham at 25-1 if he's declared for the tingle creek, and the race looks winnable for him.
 
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Lobos said:
25's looks massive but you are very likely throwing away the win bet and just playing for two places. The return on 10 each way for the place AP would be the same as having 20 win on a 2/1 shot on the day.
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As a book mon. Those returns are crucial though Lobos. You wouldn't back Jonbon at 2/1 on the day for 20 quid but you can increase that likelihood of filling the places with a bigger chance for the same outlay with the caveat of he could just win
 
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Lobos said:
25's looks massive but you are very likely throwing away the win bet and just playing for two places. The return on 10 each way for the place AP would be the same as having 20 win on a 2/1 shot on the day.
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What's more of a throw away on the win bet ?
Jonbon for the champion chase or Alexei for the champion hurdle ? :love:
 
Yosser said:
As a book mon. Those returns are crucial though Lobos. You wouldn't back Jonbon at 2/1 on the day for 20 quid but you can increase that likelihood of filling the places with a bigger chance for the same outlay with the caveat of he could just win
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I wasn't talking about backing Jonbon on the day......never ever 😂

Personally don't think he'll turn up at The Festival. Reckon he's got it all to do to beat the other pair in the Tingle Creek. Not sure what they'll do with him then. Step up in trip i'd imagine but that wouldn't work imo. He doesn't owe anyone anything. He's been there and done it (apart from the Fez) and has been a brilliant servant for connections. Can't ask for any more than that.
 
Quevega said:
Not even looked but 25-1 is massive.

Just a dick when he runs at Cheltenham though isn't he ?
One of his problems is I also think the jockey is flawed.

I think Nico is one of the worst in terms of psychology that there is.
He has a tendency to suffer from the mentality of the "self fulfilling prophecy"

He could do with an attitude more like McCoy or Bowen (Galatea syndrome)
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“Galatea Syndrome”………every days a school day with you around Q 🤣
 
Quevega said:
What's more of a throw away on the win bet ?
Jonbon for the champion chase or Alexei for the champion hurdle ? :love:
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Jonbon all day long. You know I'm right 🥳
 
Hopefully see some big performances today. Need something to lift my spirits after the absolute shambles that happened in australia this morning.
 
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I don’t think it’s beyond the realm's he comes back and wins the Tingle.
The games a lot about ifs and Jonbon is certainly a fair sized if right now but
Looking for possible value i would say him at 25 for the QM fits that.
 
Couldn't write him off on the run last Friday, he's too good a mover to be expected to be winning in heavy ground, even more so given they're all a little behind their rivals fitness wise, the 25's is a over-reaction and I'll be surprised if he doesn't show that run to be all wrong in the TC.
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
I don’t think it’s beyond the realm's he comes back and wins the Tingle.
The games a lot about ifs and Jonbon is certainly a fair sized if right now but
Looking for possible value i would say him at 25 for the QM fits that.
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Its one that could easily be 3/1-5/1 on the day

My worry for him is the busy seasons are catching up with him. Can only go to the well so many times. He didnt look like a horse with any enthusiasm for racing in the schloer.

I can definitely see the angle though. Wont take much for him to go off single figures.
 
:LOL: 👏 Jango
maybe it was the arkle of the century after all
 
Willie's horses needing the run? Apart from the "Big Hitters" I see quite a few of his fading away and not running to form/odds. Just looked after a few favs beat today and hasn't picked up many winners apart from as mentioned the big names. I know Willie does get his aimed more Crimbo time on, does it put anyone off backing his this time year?
 
On the flip of the above, do we "mark up" his winners so far and expect improvement again?

Dont underestimate some who have been beat either?
 
Was thinking the Durkin was going to be an anti climax half way through, but turned out to be an absolute classic. GW surprised me by digging in. Pleasure to watch
 
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