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General Chat

opatcho said:
Harry Cobden could ride Il Est Francais in the King George

Nicholls said Harry would be free in the KG to ride, if asked. Nicholls doesn’t have anything entered, Pic Dory unlikely to go

57 mins in on Unbridled
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What a fabulous spare ride that could be. He's my winner. He was brilliant last year and was the moral winner imo
 
Lobos said:
What a fabulous spare ride that could be. He's my winner. He was brilliant last year and was the moral winner imo
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Sounds like there’s a small chance Harry coild ride Il Est Francais this weekend, if Pic doesn’t turn up. Sounded like Nicholls plan to run pic but my ears pricked up hearing Codben could be on Il Est on boxing day - what a ride that could be!
 
I get the feeling if Cobden was on him last year he’d have won
 
….Elliott SL added to stable tour thread.
 
…….Hobbs/White RP added to stable tour thread.
 
Is anybody backing the Nicky Henderson redemption double of jonbon CC and con hill CH ?. 155/1 for the double that Will surely shorten after the tingle creek and F5th if they both win
 
Pisto said:
Is anybody backing the Nicky Henderson redemption double of jonbon CC and con hill CH ?. 155/1 for the double that Will surely shorten after the tingle creek and F5th if they both win
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If the CC was held at Sandown I would. Might be better off doing Jonbon Ryanair with CH Champion Hurdle. If he bombs out again in the TC then that's the Only race he'll go to at the Festival if at all.
 
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Pisto said:
Is anybody backing the Nicky Henderson redemption double of jonbon CC and con hill CH ?. 155/1 for the double that Will surely shorten after the tingle creek and F5th if they both win
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There could be each way value there IMO, but i couldn't back it as a 'win only' proposition.

The races are the targets but there are a lot of 'if's, but's and maybe's' whether they can get there, perform etc.
 
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Lobos said:
If the CC was held at Sandown I would. Might be better off doing Jonbon Ryanair with CH Champion Hurdle. If he bombs out again in the TC then that's the Only race he'll go to at the Festival if at all.
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I think most people agree he’s a few pounds worse at Cheltenham but I’ve just rewatched the race, he quite easily got up for 2nd without being really asked. That mistake and the fence after really cost him IMO. The issue is he’s always liable to hit 1 that costs him,especially at Cheltenham. I don’t think he bombed out last time he just wasn’t fit enough on the day. That’s trainer error.
 
I'm definitely the wrong person to ask re Jonbon. I've never EVER backed him in his entire career 😂
 
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Yosser said:
There could be each way value there IMO, but i couldn't back it as a 'win only' proposition.

The races are the targets but there are a lot of 'if's, but's and maybe's' whether they can get there, perform etc.
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The ifs and buts are accounted for in the price id say. Con Hill wins he’ll go clear fav, JB wins he’ll at least half in price I’d guess . Probably lower as the bookies are shysters and run scared lol. If Con hill bombs out in the F5th there’s a good chance he’ll be retired anyway imo.
 
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Pisto said:
I think most people agree he’s a few pounds worse at Cheltenham but I’ve just rewatched the race, he quite easily got up for 2nd without being really asked. That mistake and the fence after really cost him IMO. The issue is he’s always liable to hit 1 that costs him,especially at Cheltenham. I don’t think he bombed out last time he just wasn’t fit enough on the day. That’s trainer error.
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If it is trainer error, and it’s fitness, then 25’s is a big price for a horse never out the first two
 
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Pisto said:
I think most people agree he’s a few pounds worse at Cheltenham but I’ve just rewatched the race, he quite easily got up for 2nd without being really asked.
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I followed him live and what you say is an understatement, he literally cantered to the last and was just given a squeeze by Nico who just asked him to do enough to claim second.
The talent is unquestioned, my issue with the horse now is his tendency to smash one and he was brushed aside easily enough at Sandown in the Celebration Chase too.
He was probably a pound or two off being Champion Chase class and he is probably now on the decline, personally I couldn't back him for anything....
 
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Carnage at Taunton said:
If it is trainer error, and it’s fitness, then 25’s is a big price for a horse never out the first two
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Not even looked but 25-1 is massive.

Just a dick when he runs at Cheltenham though isn't he ?
One of his problems is I also think the jockey is flawed.

I think Nico is one of the worst in terms of psychology that there is.
He has a tendency to suffer from the mentality of the "self fulfilling prophecy"

He could do with an attitude more like McCoy or Bowen (Galatea syndrome)
 
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Istabraq said:
I followed him live and what you say is an understatement, he literally cantered to the last and was just given a squeeze by Nico who just asked him to do enough to claim second.
The talent is unquestioned, my issue with the horse now is his tendency to smash one and he was brushed aside easily enough at Sandown in the Celebration Chase too.
He was probably a pound or two off being Champion Chase class and he is probably now on the decline, personally I couldn't back him for anything....
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That’s the trade off I guess. You can’t make them kind of mistakes and win at the Fez unless you’re top top class. Would your opinion change if he hoses up in the TC ?
Quevega said:
Not even looked but 25-1 is massive.

Just a dick when he runs at Cheltenham though isn't he ?
One of his problems is I also think the jockey is flawed.

I think Nico is one of the worst in terms of psychology that there is.
He has a tendency to suffer from the mentality of the "self fulfilling prophecy"

He could do with an attitude more like McCoy or Bowen (Galatea syndrome)
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Is there much chance of Bowen being retained rider for JP ?. I know NDB isn’t but rate Bowen much higher as a jock
 
Pisto said:
That’s the trade off I guess. You can’t make them kind of mistakes and win at the Fez unless you’re top top class. Would your opinion change if he hoses up in the TC ?

Is there much chance of Bowen being retained rider for JP ?. I know NDB isn’t but rate Bowen much higher as a jock
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I'm not sure he'd want to (obviously money/security would influence)
I don't think being JP's retained UK rider is the same as it once was. In respect of winning the jockey championship, although I'm not as up to speed with the horses in training he has right now.
I think JP is older now and looks after his friends and mates more than being as ambitious in terms of results. Which is natural when money is no object, as there are more important things in life

Bowen's definitely got the same sort of mindset of McCoy though and he never gives up.

I think horses often respond to this (because they are symbiotic with the jockey) and it means that mindsets like that along with good jockeymanship mean that winners happen more often on the horses with less ability than the horses they are racing against.

I think Nico gets beat on the best horses sometimes because of the negative mindset.
He's a very good jockey but mentally I'm not and have never been convinced.
 
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