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2025 Novice Chasers

Odin said:
I was in two minds as to whether to add Inthepocket before the race, but I'm glad I did now. That was really impressive for me and I love how quick he gets his legs down after his fences. Proper 2 miler I reckon although he probably didn't beat much with Farren probably unfit
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Good performance indeed and jumped very well. Certainly looks quick enough for 2m so I don't think he'll be up in trip unless comprehensively beaten up in grade.
 
Pulled the trigger a few times in play with Sky keeping market open, happy enough with that. But long way to go, hopefully not to premature and gitty as can easily get carried away in a silly race this time year, I liked how he hit the line hard and was slick though. Henry does like an arkle runner!
 
Our first poss festival winner performance of new season? Very happy with that …..hope he stays sound

Might be worth a little double with Slade Steel for 3m ?
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Our first poss festival winner performance of new season? Very happy with that …..hope he stays sound

Might be worth a little double with Slade Steel for 3m ?
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I think we need to wait a while before asking that question :biggrin-new:
 
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Maybe ITP performance will push Ballyburn up in trip or into the Champion Hurdle.........:onthego:
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Indeed
Like maybe see how Slade Steel performs?
October!!
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It’s over 200-1 double …..so big fun really, but easy to see them getting split up

Ballyburn apart last years novices didn’t look great ….,so still think ITP is a decent price ….hes not a 3m so Arkle prob his target ….,specially as I think it’s a race JP not won?
 
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Not impossible both end up in the same race is it ?

Mark on ITP and Rachael on SS?

For all that obviously Rachael does get the ITP ride
 
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….InthePocket 12-1 Arkle in their ‘enhanced odds’ section.
 
TigerRolllllll said:
It’s over 200-1 double …..so big fun really, but easy to see them getting split up

Ballyburn apart last years novices didn’t look great ….,so still think ITP is a decent price ….hes not a 3m so Arkle prob his target ….,specially as I think it’s a race JP not won?
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Fair enough a speculative punt
understand
 
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darlojim said:
Not impossible both end up in the same race is it ?

Mark on ITP and Rachael on SS?

For all that obviously Rachael does get the ITP ride
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Not impossible, but it would be staggering (to me) if Ballyburn was chasing and Arkle bound unbeaten at the end of February
 
Smart performance but I think people are getting carried away. His novice hurdle form is nowhere near the likes of Ballyburn or Impaire et Passe. Its the one novice chase where novice hurdle ratings match up with their ability to win the race.

2024 - GW had the best hurdle rating (albeit over further)
2023 - EF joint top with Jonbon
2022 - Edwardstone not near the top on novice hurdle ratings but was a poor renewal
2021 - Shishkin top
2020 - PTKO won but nowhere near best on novice hurdle ratings. Another poor race where Notebook went off favourite and only rated low 140s over hurdles
2019 - DDG won but doubt he was near the top on hurdle ratings. Another poor renewal with Hardline favourite with a 140 hurdle rating
2018 - Footpad won. Petit Mouchoir had the highest novice hurdle rating
2017 - Altior
2016 - Douvan

5 of last 9 were top or joint top rated I think. The other 3 were generally poor years depth wise.

This year we could have
Ballyburn - 166 RPR
Impaire et Passe - 162 RPR
Slade Steel - 149 RPR
Inthepocket - 150 RPR
Firefox - 150 RPR
Sir Gino - 152 RPR
Majborough - 147 RPR

​​​​​You've also got the kind of unknown in Its For Me and Down Memory Lane.

Horses rated 155 on RPRs as novice hurdlers in the period above:

Gaelic Warrior won
Il Etait Temps 3rd
El Fabiolo won
Jonbon 2nd
Shishkin won
Petit Mouchoir 3rd
Altior won
Douvan won
​​​​​​
​​​​5 wins out of 8 qualifiers. 2 of the losers were because of another horse in the race being qualifiers and the other was Petit Mouchoir against Footpad, who was a 4 year old as a novice and reached a rating of 162 as a 4/5 year old in open company.

Don't overthink it. Back the 2 Mullins ones that are well clear on ratings.
 
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DenmanSacre said:
Smart performance but I think people are getting carried away. His novice hurdle form is nowhere near the likes of Ballyburn or Impaire et Passe. Its the one novice chase where novice hurdle ratings match up with their ability to win the race.
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Agree entirely.

I think we may have seen our first handicap winner though. I've convinced myself he's the novice handicap chase winner in waiting.

The Farren Glory form line is as weak as piss. Yes, he's a Grade 1 winning hurdler, but it was a Grade 1 in name only and quite possibly one of the only Grade 1's ever to be contested by handicappers. I know he was also likely to go close in the Tolworth, but again that's not saying much, the British novices were absolute tosh last season.

Then, as you note, the novice hurdle division from last season was a level above what he achieved over hurdles, and that of the year before (to include Impaire Et Passe).
 
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…HDB re InthePocket;

”I’m delighted with that. He has always been a really nice horse,” De Bromhead said. “He jumped great and Mark was brilliant on him as ever. He is a really exciting horse for us. He just had a minor issue last season and we decided to put him away.

“We definitely feel he is probably better going left-handed than right. The Grade One at Leopardstown over Christmas is gone now but we will find something for him. We are just delighted with today.”
​
 
Firefox declared for the 2m3f beginners chase at DR which had been mooted previously for him.
 
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Glad to see Willie thinking Arkle with IEP:

I think we'll go novice chasing this season. He had a crack going down the Champion Hurdle route and it didn't work, though he did win a Grade 1 at Aintree and finished up nicely when winning at Sandown on the final day of the season in Britain. He has a lot of ability and if he can transfer that to fences he's going to be in the mix in those two-mile novice chases. My little concern is the day we made the running with him at Leopardstown he didn't seem to enjoy being in front and I always like my two-mile chasers to enjoy making the running. It might have been a valuable lesson that we learned that he might have to be ridden off the pace. I think he's going to be a good addition to our Arkle Chase team.
 
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The 2m novice division looking rather exciting this season.
We’ve seen ITP jump a fence nicely and throw his hat in the ring. IEP looks to be targeted for the Arkle.
Yet to see the two nov hurdle winners, so that’s exciting waiting to see how they jump plus we have Firefox.
Thats 5 what I consider are viable contenders plus we will probably have one or two other contenders as the season gets going.
Early days but certainly enough to get excited about.
Would be great to have a really competitive 2m novice chase to look forward to in March.
 
The Arkle is always an exciting race to watch. Can't beat watching classy horses jumping fences at speed.
 
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