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2025 Novice Chasers

TigerRolllllll said:
Job well done tbf

The Henry horse ran well & both jumped nicely

Doubtless be shortened more than should, but looks an Arkle contender
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9/2 with Skybet. In what looks like it could be a very deep renewal. Not very generous.
 
Exar Essay said:
9/2 with Skybet. In what looks like it could be a very deep renewal. Not very generous.
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6/1 elsewhere, which is still enough for an E/W bet to nothing, I guess.

They could all look generous if Willie comes out and says Ballyburn goes for the Champion Hurdle or the longer trip over fences though. That's what we all seem to be waiting on.
 
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Considering he's an out and out 2miler, that was lovely by Firefox to beat a decent stayer like Mossy Fen Park relatively comfortably.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
6/1 elsewhere, which is still enough for an E/W bet to nothing, I guess.

They could all look generous if Willie comes out and says Ballyburn goes for the Champion Hurdle or the longer trip over fences though. That's what we all seem to be waiting on.
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That's fair. For two similarly rated horses (over hurdles) I was more taken with ITP's seasonal debut and think the 10/1 a fairer reflection of the market.
 
Exar Essay said:
That's fair. For two similarly rated horses (over hurdles) I was more taken with ITP's seasonal debut and think the 10/1 a fairer reflection of the market.
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…I tend to agree and HDB will have some understanding of the pecking order through Mossy Fen Park.

Note; ITP (Ark) is 12-1 in Hills enhanced odds specials.
 
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I'm not really sure you can compare considering Firefox has ran an inadequate distance over 2m4 and Inthepocket over the minimum 2m trip
 
I thought the Firefox performance was very encouraging. He probably beat a good one in second. Over to you now, Willie
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
I'm not really sure you can compare considering Firefox has ran an inadequate distance over 2m4 and Inthepocket over the minimum 2m trip
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I think you can. You can factor in the trips when making a comparison. Personally, I don't think Firefox was inconvenienced by the trip given the modest opposition and the good ground.
 
The main thing for me is the jumping when it comes to first time out nov chasers.
They both did ok in that regard.
Not sure we can determine much else from their respective runs.
Now Looking forward to seeing how other contenders jump a fence.
 
Lobos said:
Spot on COD. Need him covered.
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at 6/1 EW? Is he an EW shot to nothing?

potentially Ballyburn, IEP, ITP to contend with

Not to mention horses that could turn up also

Maj/Slade steel/Jeriko

Absolute standout in the Arkle market atm is Impaire et Passe - everyone has to get up to his ratings in the market, not the other way round (aslong as he can jump obv)
 
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Agree. Wouldn't back him now at 6's.
 
darlojim said:
at 6/1 EW? Is he an EW shot to nothing?

potentially Ballyburn, IEP, ITP to contend with

Not to mention horses that could turn up also

Maj/Slade steel/Jeriko

Absolute standout in the Arkle market atm is Impaire et Passe - everyone has to get up to his ratings in the market, not the other way round (aslong as he can jump obv)
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Two boxes ticked for Firefox.

His aim is the Arkle
He can jump a fence

Inthepocket can also jump a fence but his target is less clear. Henry non-commital on that.

Ballyburn is a woeful price given most recent comments.

Agree about IEP, and I fully expect him to be shorter than Firefox once we know he can jump a fence.

For now though the only horse seemingly committed to the Arkle that has been out and jumped a fence in public is Firefox, and for that he's an E/W bet to nothing, IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Two boxes ticked for Firefox.

His aim is the Arkle
He can jump a fence

Inthepocket can also jump a fence but his target is less clear. Henry non-commital on that.

Ballyburn is a woeful price given most recent comments.

Agree about IEP, and I fully expect him to be shorter than Firefox once we know he can jump a fence.

For now though the only horse seemingly committed to the Arkle that has been out and jumped a fence in public is Firefox, and for that he's an E/W bet to nothing, IMO.
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It's really only the first weekend of the national hunt season so obviously plenty horses haven't yet shown their cards yet as to whether they can jump etc.

Surely better just sitting on your hands until at the very least Firefox's next entry? He isn't going to shorten anymore between now and then i'd have thought? And then by then, you may have a better understanding of potential opponents

Tying up stake EW on a 6/1 shot 4 1/2 months in advance of the festival is mad to my eyes but each to their own mate.

Henry loves an Arkle runner so you'd be almost guaranteed 1 of ITP or Slade steel will be in the race, and with good chances too so that kind of whittles the place terms down to 2 effectively, without taking in any of the Mullins ammo, and he's sure to have at least a couple of good darts in the race this season with there only being the 2 g1 novice chases.

For all Ballyburn is a poor price, that doesn't directly affect how he would go in the Arkle itself, I'd have it long long long odds on at least him or IEP will take up one of the place slots
 
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darlojim said:
Tying up stake EW on a 6/1 shot 4 1/2 months in advance of the festival is mad to my eyes but each to their own mate.
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You could argue this for a lot of horses, most of which we havent even seen yet.

I'd rather back a horse that's been out and has a target at 6/1 than something that hasn't with no idea on target.

I appreciate it's early in the season.

darlojim said:
Henry loves an Arkle runner so you'd be almost guaranteed 1 of ITP or Slade steel will be in the race, and with good chances too so that kind of whittles the place terms down to 2 effectively, without taking in any of the Mullins ammo, and he's sure to have at least a couple of good darts in the race this season with there only being the 2 g1 novice chases.
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Agree about Henry's runners, doesn't mean Firefox won't improve past Slade Steel over fences though.

IEP or Ballyburn would rank number one if either or both turn up, assuming they jump a fence. But it takes one error on the day or a stone bruise leading up and suddenly Firefox is there with a real chance.


darlojim said:
For all Ballyburn is a poor price, that doesn't directly affect how he would go in the Arkle itself, I'd have it long long long odds on at least him or IEP will take up one of the place slots
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It affects it if he doesn't even turn up for the race though. So not only do we not know what discipline he is going over, we don't even know what trip, and that's before we see him jump a fence in public (assuming they go chasing).
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You could argue this for a lot of horses, most of which we havent even seen yet.

I'd rather back a horse that's been out and has a target at 6/1 than something that hasn't with no idea on target.

I appreciate it's early in the season.



Agree about Henry's runners, doesn't mean Firefox won't improve past Slade Steel over fences though.

IEP or Ballyburn would rank number one if either or both turn up, assuming they jump a fence. But it takes one error on the day or a stone bruise leading up and suddenly Firefox is there with a real chance.




It affects it if he doesn't even turn up for the race though. So not only do we not know what discipline he is going over, we don't even know what trip, and that's before we see him jump a fence in public (assuming they go chasing).
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Probably something we're in disagreement about this then :emmersed:

Impaire et passe has already been mooted as a 2miler in the tour

RE. Firefox improving past SS, yeah thats totally plausible, but just as likely Slade steel improves for a fence too!

And likewise an error on the day or a stone bruise, Firefox isn't exempt from them either :boxing:

I'd say we all kinda know where Ballyburn goes, its pretty obvious (to my mind anyway) and if you take a look at his p2p, there seems to be no issues in the jumping dept.


I'm not saying I don't like Firefox btw, I thought his chase debut was good, really good. His jumping was spot on and he'll likely come on plenty for it. I just think if you aren't on prior to his debut today, I'd be pretty strong on waiting to see how the market develops a little is a better option than to back him @ 6s EW. Is the Drinmore not a potential target next? I haven't seen any post race reports so unaware what the plans are with him, but he certainly looked fine over that trip today.
 
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To me an each way ‘bet to nothing’ means a horse that is at least nailed on to place & you’re getting a free shot at the win part. Think State Man @ 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle. For me it’s too early to say Firefox is in that category, for all it was a lovely debut.
 
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Stormez said:
To me an each way ‘bet to nothing’ means a horse that is at least nailed on to place & you’re getting a free shot at the win part. Think State Man @ 5/1 for the Champion Hurdle. For me it’s too early to say Firefox is in that category, for all it was a lovely debut.
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Yep, at this stage SM has 2 serious rivals, Firefox has at least 4 imo
 
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Fully expecting Croke Park to get back on track tomorrow. Started his hurdles career impressively and was well fancied for Festival honours by plenty on here. Form tailed off towards the end of the season and no apparent reason found. Gordon says he was his number 1 in Albert before pulling him out and running the winner Stellar Story in his place. Clearly Gordon thought more of him than SS which says plenty. Good comments in his recent Stable Tour and he's always looked like he'd make a far better chaser. Starts off tomorrow at Fairyhouse and has his stablemate to beat who carries some decent Hurdles form into the race. Have a feeling CP could end up Gordon's best Staying Novice Chaser and the 66's on offer with B365 seem OTT and represent decent value imo. Win well tomorrow and good comments from Gordon could see those odds slashed.
 
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I think the same as the novice hurdlers, you just have to be careful with the Giggs horses, especially with Gordon, as we know handicaps come right into play.

He seemed to bomb out on both occasions when upped to the top level, which has to be a worry for me. Whether he still had a slight issue (missed Cheltenham) at Aintree we’ll never know, nothing reported as well.

I had him backed for the AB last year but post Naas I wish I could have gotten out of it to be honest.

Watching brief for me as can’t back them all and he’s certainly not in the top 5 at the minute.

Edit - just to add, on a mark of 140 over hurdles, on ground not his best tomorrow, I’d say handicaps could be a huge play as I don’t see it a clear cut win tomorrow.
 
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