• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novices 2017

Capitaine entered up at Wincanton on Saturday, The Kingwell hurdle. 14-45.
Going to put this one in a L.15 today, while 25's available.
 
Yanworth also entered in the kingwell hurdle , Wonder if the ground will be against capitaine ,??
 
Moon Racer up to 148 for staying in his box. That is probably good enough to take this race as long as their isn't a superstar lurking.
 
Kevloaf said:
Moon Racer up to 148 for staying in his box. That is probably good enough to take this race as long as their isn't a superstar lurking.
Click to expand...

I'd be worried about lack of experience with him. Only two runs over hurdles and won't have run since November.
 
Can't be having either Melon or Moon Racer, if he turns up Charli Parcs beats both no?
 
I agree about Moon Racer, not about Melon. What has Charli Parcs done that Melon hasn't? Both have beaten what seem like average horses, no form has really been franked bar one horse Charli Parcs beat but since then that horse has only been given a rating of 133.

However, the biggest negative for me, was pointed out by someone else on here a few weeks ago now, that 4 year olds don't win the Supreme anymore. Prior to 1974 it seemed to not be uncommon for a 4 year old to win, but moving on and the times we are in now, from 1974 onwards we have only seen ONE 4 year old win this race, Charli Parcs won't just have to be good, he'll have to be BETTER than Altior to win IMO.

I think as far as progression and potential go you have to take both into consideration, but the negative as above is enough for me to side with Melon over Charli Parcs.

Also, for what it's worth, I think both prices have been ruined by the bookmakers, neither should be as short as they are after just one run each, but I can't exactly blame the bookmakers for taking cover on a Henderson & Mullins runner given their stronghold over this race in previous years.
 
mayo said:
Not on form...what did he beat ? Moon Racer form franked all season.
Click to expand...

He's raced 6 times in 3 years, and won't have run for 5 months come the festival...he's also 8...

I wouldn't back him at 20/1.
 
If you think your horse is good enough to win the Supreme, then they should really consider the Champion Hurdle (Moonracer).

See the quality of Supreme winners vs Champion winners and their times...

Supreme Novice Time Champion Hurdle Time
2013 - Champagne Fever 3:55.60 - Hurricane Fly 3:59.35
2014 - Vautour 3:46.40 - Jezki 3:45.25
2015 - Douvan 3:47.50 - Faugheen 3:50.90
2016 - Altior 3:46.10s - Annie Power 3:45.10
 
Last edited:
Ballyandy all the way for me. Ok so Moon Racer best him early season but hasn't run since where as Ballyandy is battle hardened , I've had my ante on him anyway.
 
Just looking again at the supreme betting and its Moon Racer for me he's just rock solid. Melon and Charli Parcs have too many questions to answer for me. Neither has course form never mind history of dealing with the hustle and bustle of the festival the both only have 1 run in the UK and the form of there races hasn't been proven to be outstanding. They may prove to be superstars but at the prices I'd rather be on something with course form preferably festival experience and a few runs over hurdles. That's why it's Moon racer for me with high Bridge and Ballyandy for the places.
 
loveracing said:
If you think your horse is good enough to win the Supreme, then they should really consider the Champion Hurdle (Moonracer).

See the quality of Supreme winners vs Champion winners and their times...

Supreme Novice Time Champion Hurdle Time
2013 - Champagne Fever 3:55.60 - Hurricane Fly 3:59.35
2014 - Vautour 3:46.40 - Jezki 3:45.25
2015 - Douvan 3:47.50 - Faugheen 3:50.90
2016 - Altior 3:46.10s - Annie Power 3:45.10
Click to expand...

This is exactly how I feel. :encouragement:

You don't get chances to have champion hurdle winners very often and with this being a below average renewal, they surely have to take their chance.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
This is exactly how I feel. :encouragement:

You don't get chances to have champion hurdle winners very often and with this being a below average renewal, they surely have to take their chance.
Click to expand...

Supreme horses carry 3 lbs less etc.
 
Wouldn't touch Moon Racer at this stage as I think they should take on the Champion now given his age and the fact that the two defending Champions are out.

They'd be mad not to.

If you're on for the Supreme at fancy prices then just sit tight. If he goes for the Supreme his price will collapse - in the meantime I'd consider a little saver for the Champion.
 
He might as well get beat in the champion as get beat in the supreme. Prize money for 5th will be worth more in the Champion hurdle :triumphant:
 
With his age and the lack of quality in depth for the Champion Hurdle I feel it's this year or never for Moon Racer for the CH. There's only been two horses aged 9 who have won it in the last 25 years so the trends would be against him if waiting until next year.

If they think he's good enough to win the Supreme he wouldn't be far off winning a CH as poor as this years, so they may as well have a crack at it whilst he's actually fit and well.
 
Interesting discussion going on with this race. purely on the book, Moonracer and ballandy have the best form in the book. Its also been franked by other horses. I cant have an 8yo winning the supreme, and i'd be worried about such a long lay-off. I was looking for an irish novice to come and take the crown but i cant say with any confidence that i've seen anything good enough. The best Irish novices look to be 2.5-3milers this year. The Melon, and Charli Parcs(will he run) prices are frankly crazy. They should both be double figures at least. Melon may well win, and we'll get the usual nonsense from punters saying "weren't you on it" but honestly how could you be.
 
doctorwu said:
Interesting discussion going on with this race. purely on the book, Moonracer and ballandy have the best form in the book. Its also been franked by other horses. I cant have an 8yo winning the supreme, and i'd be worried about such a long lay-off. I was looking for an irish novice to come and take the crown but i cant say with any confidence that i've seen anything good enough. The best Irish novices look to be 2.5-3milers this year. The Melon, and Charli Parcs(will he run) prices are frankly crazy. They should both be double figures at least. Melon may well win, and we'll get the usual nonsense from punters saying "weren't you on it" but honestly how could you be.
Click to expand...

I took a punt on Melon at 12s cos I thought "well, what if? Wouldn't want to miss out", and I thought he looked very nice on debut, but anyone backing him at the current prices needs their head checking
 
Is Moon Racer on a hiding to nothing turning up in this?

IF he is deemed good enough to compete in the Champion Hurdle... yet runs in this and you consider that as a good thing, means even if he wins he will; get abuse for not running in the CH. If he runs in this and loses people will crab him for being too old anyway or being fragile.

If he gets stuffed in the CH people will say he should have run in the Supreme and at least had a chance of winning a festival race and you're back at the start of the circle.

The only way this horse won't get put on peoples dislikes list, is a CH win. Destined to fail before he has even arrived. Poor thing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom