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Supreme Novices 2017

Kevloaf said:
With Bunk Off Early not doing his chances any harm I can't see any way for Airlie Beach to turn up in this race? BOE has nowhere else to go and Airlie Beach is fav for the Mares Nov version.

I hope Finian's Oscar OR Neon Wolf turn up here... although I am loads sweeter on Neon Wolf than FO. I feel like FO has been quite lucky in how impressive he has looked and there is absolutely nothing generous about his odds, because people are going WAY OVERBOARD because of the Tizzard factor.
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Yes take your point ref Finian's Oscar. A month or so ago I would have completly agreed with you and I am not one for getting taken in by hype on horses.
I just think the Supreme is really there for the taking and you will need a horse who can travel and jump fluently, ideally from a handy position. FO ticks all these boxes and this years Supreme renewal just looks weak, even without hindsight its not a patch on last years renewal.The way it travels and jumps reminds me a little of Vautour when it won the Supreme a couple of years back.
I think the Supreme is the more prestigious race ahead of the Neptune (not sure if prize money supports this ) and with it being first race there will be a little bit of juice in the ground as a bare minimum.
I really think the 8/1 NRNB is a great price. Everytime Tizzard talks about this horse he refers to its ability to travel on the bridle.
Melon could be anything. I cant have Moon Racer winning this, the rest of the Irish seem to be bursting each other's bubbles or clearely need further. That then brings in Consul De Thaix and Ballyandy and both are a possible threat but both also may want a little further.
Sometimes you just get a feeling about a target and I get this feeling Tizzards are heading to this race. Same would apply for Neon Wolf if he ends up here too, but I just suspect it will be FO.
 
IF Charli Parcs shows up. He wins. Nothing has impressed me more than this horse all year. I was on him for the Triumph but this looking more likely now.
 
I was/am sweet on Charli Parcs but he'd need to bolt up in the Adonis and that isn't an ideal prep, for me anyway.

I've got bigger NRNB prices on FO and NW bit agree 8/1 NRNB has quite a lot of juice in it! Would be half the price for sure wouldn't he?
 
Charli Parcs for me too. I'll be laying off the 14/1 ticket on Melon and putting my stake on CP. Already got some 8/1 & 7/1 but he will take some beating if he's as good as I think he is.
 
Charli Parcs was impressive, personally, I am always wary of horses bolting up like that on flat tracks and their ability to transform that to Cheltenham. Not saying it cant do that, but I dont take that at face value until I have seen it do something similar on a stiffer track. Same applies to Might Bite for me.
I also think there was a bit of surprise element from Charli Parcs that day.I'm going from memory here, but im sure there was some quotes from Claude Charlet and another French expert from twitter(Matthew someone?) who whilst neither talked the horse down, I am pretty sure they didnt talk it up to the level of performance that it produced.
Great for thoise who are on it at double figure prices, but at the current 6s on offer, I would rather not take that performance at face value yet. I just believe Kempton can produce extraordinary performances from horses and until I have seen more, Charli sits in that category for me.
 
Zoowraa said:
Charli Parcs was impressive, personally, I am always wary of horses bolting up like that on flat tracks and their ability to transform that to Cheltenham. Not saying it cant do that, but I dont take that at face value until I have seen it do something similar on a stiffer track. Same applies to Might Bite for me.
I also think there was a bit of surprise element from Charli Parcs that day.I'm going from memory here, but im sure there was some quotes from Claude Charlet and another French expert from twitter(Matthew someone?) who whilst neither talked the horse down, I am pretty sure they didnt talk it up to the level of performance that it produced.
Great for thoise who are on it at double figure prices, but at the current 6s on offer, I would rather not take that performance at face value yet. I just believe Kempton can produce extraordinary performances from horses and until I have seen more, Charli sits in that category for me.
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All good points. Is anyone else surprised that DDS and CP aren't being aimed the other way round?

DDS has cheltenham form, highest performance rating of any juvenile/novice hurdler this season and is on the whole a good jumper with a massive engine. CP has all the potential in the world but is less experienced. I'll be backing both wherever they go as think they're the top two juveniles/novices in Britain and Ireland this season but just surprised as isn't DDS committed to the Triumph already?
 
I would like to apologise to all Saturnas backers - I grabbed him ante post before the Deloitte evidently cursing all of us. So unfair that others should suffer from my hexing
 
robith said:
I would like to apologise to all Saturnas backers - I grabbed him ante post before the Deloitte evidently cursing all of us. So unfair that others should suffer from my hexing
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I did exactly the same robith, so I could also be to blame... :sorrow:
 
Zoowraa said:
Charli Parcs was impressive, personally, I am always wary of horses bolting up like that on flat tracks and their ability to transform that to Cheltenham. Not saying it cant do that, but I dont take that at face value until I have seen it do something similar on a stiffer track. Same applies to Might Bite for me.
I also think there was a bit of surprise element from Charli Parcs that day.I'm going from memory here, but im sure there was some quotes from Claude Charlet and another French expert from twitter(Matthew someone?) who whilst neither talked the horse down, I am pretty sure they didnt talk it up to the level of performance that it produced.
Great for thoise who are on it at double figure prices, but at the current 6s on offer, I would rather not take that performance at face value yet. I just believe Kempton can produce extraordinary performances from horses and until I have seen more, Charli sits in that category for me.
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I like horses that perform well at Kempton when looking for my Supreme horses. Menorah and Altior both put up impressive performances at Kempton before going on to win the supreme. The old course is more of a speed track which should suit CP more than it would suit DDS.........Well that's my reading of it anyway.

:devilish:
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I like horses that perform well at Kempton when looking for my Supreme horses. Menorah and Altior both put up impressive performances at Kempton before going on to win the supreme. The old course is more of a speed track which should suit CP more than it would suit DDS.........Well that's my reading of it anyway.

:devilish:
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Very fair points . My memory don't go back far enough to remember Menorah. I think Altior won at Kempton despite the track, it was looking outpaced before the engine kicked in and he routed them. Again, just a personal preference but I prefer that performance cos you know/knew he would appreciate the stiffer track. I much prefer a workman like performance at Kempton rather than dominate not off the bridle .
It's unlikely CP will take it up as early as it did at Kempton here, if he does he will need to be some horse and it's obviously possible he could be. So I just feel that he is going to be asked some alternative questions at Cheltenham and as yet we don't know if he can answer them, or little evidence to support him answering them. That's why the current price is unappealing for me.
 
Leman14 said:
I did exactly the same robith, so I could also be to blame... :sorrow:
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I'm rather tempted to just give up on the Supreme until the day, seems a lottery to my eye
 
I am a little bit taken back by everyone's interest in Charli Parcs (CP) tbh. Don't get me wrong, visually he looked good, but then again so have a lot of potential Supreme runners this year including Melon, yet many can't be having him as their winner. The horses CP beat were either readily beat or have since been readily beat with the exception of Master Blueyes, whom suffered defeat next time out but rectified that last time out, but just to have a quick look at the form:

Master Blueyes (8 lengths behind CP) - 2nd - in a class 2 NTO, 1st - dropped down to a class 4 race LTO (since defeat to Charli Parcs). Had also been defeated by Cliffs Of Dover by 17 3/4 lengths prior to the run against CP.

Imari Kid (15 lengths behind CP) - Not been seen since, but previously lost to Dino Velvet by 24 1/4 lengths.

Royal Reserve (16 1/2 lengths behind CP) - 30 1/2 length defeat by Don Bersy since, also finished 22 1/4 lengths behind Forth Bridge prior to defeat by CP.

Pleasure Dome (28 1/2 lengths behind CP) - Not raced since, but prior was 30 lengths behind Evening Hush

Whilst he could only beat what was in front of him, in all honesty that wasn't a lot and Lough Derg Spirit & Jenkins (another pair Henderson horses) actually beat a better bunch of horses on their debuts but both fizzled out tamely in their next races and have seemingly taken a walk in the market too.

CP would obviously have to improve and if you're backing him you'd be banking on him to, but then again so would Melon. I think the only thing keeping him at a decent price ahead of Melon is for once, from Mullins, we actually know what Melons target has been all along, CP less so.

You could also say the exact same thing with regards to Melon, though for me his form lines are arguably stronger than those of CP.

As far as value goes, unfortunately bookmakers take no chances with Mullins horses anymore. And I feel that may be the same for Henderson should CP improve enough and land him this race 2 years running, so from that perspective all is pretty much gone anyway, but as a improving winner goes I am happily siding with the Mullins runner.
 
I just like the way henderson is talking about him. I'm sure i read somewhere that he could be another Altior. Maybe he is only talking about him rather than LDS or Jenkins because the bubble is still floating

Also I much prefer Geraghty to Walsh. I think he is a great judge of pace and CP/Melon go to the last together. I feel Barry will get a better tune out of CP and a smoother jump
 
Hendo said he's as good as Buveur D'air was as a novice so, if true, that puts him right in the mix for a supreme.
 
TheRowebot said:
If he is as good as BD, with the weight allowance he must go close..
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I totally agree. He won his first hurdle beating Poker Play in France and that one won his 2nd race comfortably (and was sold for 280k afterwards). Admittedly, he was disappointing behind Finux on his UK debut but many French horses take time to acclimatise; obviously, not an issue with Charli Parcs. I would tend to overlook Master Blueyes' first run over hurdles (behind Cliffs of Dover) as he jumped poorly. His 2nd place (after his defeat behind CP) was pretty good form; a Class 2 with the first two pulling 26 lengths clear. In an average year, if he turns up in this, CP looks to have a real chance
 
The money can be misleading, JP is renowned for overpaying and buying randomly, this is why he ends up with 200+ horses in training the majority of which run in class 4 handicaps.
I'm far from his biggest fan but Ricci has few average horses, he is well advised and buys well, something JP doesn't do so when you see the headline purchase it doesn't necessarily mean the horse is a world beater...
 
Istabraq said:
The money can be misleading, JP is renowned for overpaying and buying randomly, this is why he ends up with 200+ horses in training the majority of which run in class 4 handicaps.
I'm far from his biggest fan but Ricci has few average horses, he is well advised and buys well, something JP doesn't do so when you see the headline purchase it doesn't necessarily mean the horse is a world beater...
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I was actually referring to Poker Play, Ista; but, you're right, JP did pay 250000 Euros for this one. Certainly not a definitive guide and the French horses tend to go for too much money; however, whatever the price, they were both highly regarded.
 
Looking like Ruby on Melon and Townend on Bunk Off Early then? 25/1 before the deloitte, best priced 10s now with 7s about!

Makes sense that Townend will continue the partnership and he looks an obvious each way angle for Mullins?
 
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