2024 Ryanair Chase

[Magpie]

Have to say I think 7s for Stage Star is value, that was asking a lot to carry that weight, and as we know a decent break usually brings good things. Still fairly confident in Stage.

 

[Guinness Village]

7/1 nrnb stage star hills is tempting I have to agree

 

[Kevloaf]

7/1 nrnb stage star hills is tempting I have to agree

Allaho - runner
Jonbon - QMCC
Envoi Allen - runner
Stage Star - runner
Shishkin - GC
Bravemansgame - Runner?
Appreciate It - runner
L'Homme Presse - GC
Edwardstone - likely runner
Protektorat - runner
Banbridge - unlikely runner
Gentlemansgame​ - GC


Hills have this as their market currently at 14/1 or under

Is 7/1 decent value there, let's say it's how I predict it?

Only looking at NRMB

Allaho - 6/4
Envoi Allen - 5/1
Stage Star - 7/1
Bravemansgame - 8/1
Appreciate It - 10/1
Edwardstone - 10/1
Protektorat - 14/1



I think NRMB I'd like Bravemansgame as well - but what would Harry ride, probably Stage Star

Can definitely see the angle.... but book building has skewed my opinion here and I've had 4 beers

 

[Lobos]

Thought this was interesting, ITV interview with Nichols and Cobden before the race

https://x.com/itvracing/status/1741822237550821509?s=46&t=NiSqwuzX76i7Aetet03ZgA

i was at the course today, so didn’t see this until now. Plenty much called the race and concerns around stage star not getting a easy time up front
”look after him”…. “Big one in March”

hmmm

Wished I'd seen this too. Fair play though. Pulled up as soon as chance gone fully 1/2m out so no damage done. Big day in March !!

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Allaho - runner
Jonbon - QMCC
Envoi Allen - runner
Stage Star - runner
Shishkin - GC
Bravemansgame - Runner?
Appreciate It - runner
L'Homme Presse - GC
Edwardstone - likely runner
Protektorat - runner
Banbridge - unlikely runner
Gentlemansgame​ - GC


Hills have this as their market currently at 14/1 or under

Is 7/1 decent value there, let's say it's how I predict it?

Only looking at NRMB

Allaho - 6/4
Envoi Allen - 5/1
Stage Star - 7/1
Bravemansgame - 8/1
Appreciate It - 10/1
Edwardstone - 10/1
Protektorat - 14/1



I think NRMB I'd like Bravemansgame as well - but what would Harry ride, probably Stage Star

Can definitely see the angle.... but book building has skewed my opinion here and I've had 4 beers

PN said BMG won’t even get a Ryanair entry …it’s def GC

 

[Guinness Village]

I think that 2 or 3 will get beaten pre Cheltenham and be bigger. 2 or 3 won’t run. I understand that Edwardstone if far from certain to turn up. So, I think that stage star will me much shorter on the day. Especially after the runs of his 2 novice chasers :barbershop_quartet_member::barbershop_quartet_member:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Like others have said it just looked odd that Stage Star was allowed to run yesterday, but I wouldn't be writing him off for the Ryanair.
For me the most obvious winner of the race now would be Shishkin but the race planning genius that is Hendo now appears to be determined at a Gold Cup tilt to take on one of the best winners of the race in my lifetime.
25s on the machine not big enough and 8/1 NRNB might not scream huge value but it's not a horrible price...

 

[AaronLad]

Like others have said it just looked odd that Stage Star was allowed to run yesterday, but I wouldn't be writing him off for the Ryanair.
For me the most obvious winner of the race now would be Shishkin but the race planning genius that is Hendo now appears to be determined at a Gold Cup tilt to take on one of the best winners of the race in my lifetime.
25s on the machine not big enough and 8/1 NRNB might not scream huge value but it's not a horrible price...

Are you sure people don't underestimate shishkin? another fine example from yourelf.
You think he's the most obvious winner of a ryanair, yet a gold cup over half a mile longer on the exact same course, which will suit him better, he can't win? (that's a question, i'm not saying you've said that, yet)
GDC may be one of the best winners you've seen, but you haven't seen the 2024 edition yet

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Like others have said it just looked odd that Stage Star was allowed to run yesterday, but I wouldn't be writing him off for the Ryanair.
For me the most obvious winner of the race now would be Shishkin but the race planning genius that is Hendo now appears to be determined at a Gold Cup tilt to take on one of the best winners of the race in my lifetime.
25s on the machine not big enough and 8/1 NRNB might not scream huge value but it's not a horrible price...

So are you saying that the horse that may well have won the KG should not take on GDC?
So nothing from the KG takes him on and I guess then watching the Savills, nothing from that race takes him on either?
Still I guess we have GMG and FOS to make it a three runner Gold Cup.
Hopefully though, trainers will think March is another day and we have a horse that could challenge the fav.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Are you sure people don't underestimate shishkin? another fine example from yourelf.
You think he's the most obvious winner of a ryanair, yet a gold cup over half a mile longer on the exact same course, which will suit him better, he can't win? (that's a question, i'm not saying you've said that, yet)
GDC may be one of the best winners you've seen, but you haven't seen the 2024 edition yet

It's a race that has thrown up some serious performances over the years but a race that generally has little depth.
Shishkin could be that exceptional horse but I accept he is most likely not running here.
He hasn't proved he stays a Gold Cup trip yet and if it was blindingly obvious that he would be a better horse for a step up then you'd have to ask serious questions on Hendo who kept him almost exclusively at 2m for four years.

This race is generally won by an exceptional horse and for me there's only really Allaho and Envoi Allen who could be described that way, Allaho has questions to answer and who knows if Cheveley Park might fancy a Gold Cup crack with one.

I've struggled to trust Shishkin in the past year or so but he clearly retains a massive chunk of that known ability, I just think if Galopin des Champs shows up in the same mood as last year the rest are all playing for places...

 

[Lobos]

Shishkin took a knock in the KG which they think was the reason his legs gave away . Might hold him up for a bit ?

 

[AaronLad]

It's a race that has thrown up some serious performances over the years but a race that generally has little depth.
Shishkin could be that exceptional horse but I accept he is most likely not running here.
He hasn't proved he stays a Gold Cup trip yet and if it was blindingly obvious that he would be a better horse for a step up then you'd have to ask serious questions on Hendo who kept him almost exclusively at 2m for four years.

This race is generally won by an exceptional horse and for me there's only really Allaho and Envoi Allen who could be described that way, Allaho has questions to answer and who knows if Cheveley Park might fancy a Gold Cup crack with one.

I've struggled to trust Shishkin in the past year or so but he clearly retains a massive chunk of that known ability, I just think if Galopin des Champs shows up in the same mood as last year the rest are all playing for places...

He kept him at 2 miles because he kept winning, 2 defeats in a row and he was upped in trip.
He now has a stayer who's thoroughly unexposed at the trip. He stayed on all the way to the line in a disappointing performance by his standards in this race last year, He then stayed on extremely well at his first attempt over 3miles at aintree, beating a horse who always puts his best foot forward at aintree.
He's then gone to a king george on seasonal re-appearance and to my eyes looked a nailed on winner until an unfortunate twist of fate.
He now has 2 options, cotswold chase or denman chase, if he goes denman chase, imo that would be poor race planning. let him have a taster of a race a furlong shorter than the gold cup on the same course .
I'm not dis-agreeing with you the ryanair would be the easier option, but then we wouldn't potentially have a mouthwatering clash between 2 possibly 3 exceptional animals.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

So are you saying that the horse that may well have won the KG should not take on GDC?
So nothing from the KG takes him on and I guess then watching the Savills, nothing from that race takes him on either?
Still I guess we have GMG and FOS to make it a three runner Gold Cup.
Hopefully though, trainers will think March is another day and we have a horse that could challenge the fav.

Always a tricky one that CAT, the long term record of King George winners in the Gold Cup is very strong so you'd have to accept that would be the logical route, though I'm also of the view that a flat 3m good ground Kempton race is a world away from a Gold Cup test, plus my thinking on this is slightly skewered by the fact I have GDC in such high regard.
Gun to my head I'd say Ryanair trip suits better because of the unknowns...

 

[AaronLad]

Shishkin took a knock in the KG which they think was the reason his legs gave away . Might hold him up for a bit ?

where was this said
Edit- i've now seen it lobos.
Not sure he quite says he thinks that's the reason, but it's quite easy to assume

 

[Eggs]

Shishkin took a knock in the KG which they think was the reason his legs gave away . Might hold him up for a bit ?

….and NdB mentioned ‘if he starts’ when asked about the GC, so that doubt must be in the minds of his connections.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

He now has 2 options, cotswold chase or denman chase, if he goes denman chase, imo that would be poor race planning. let him have a taster of a race a furlong shorter than the gold cup on the same course .

That's fair, though that would only prove him to be the best of the UK horses and the Cotswold Chase has been a poor Gold Cup guide in recent years...

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Always a tricky one that CAT, the long term record of King George winners in the Gold Cup is very strong so you'd have to accept that would be the logical route, though I'm also of the view that a flat 3m good ground Kempton race is a world away from a Gold Cup test, plus my thinking on this is slightly skewered by the fact I have GDC in such high regard.
Gun to my head I'd say Ryanair trip suits better because of the unknowns...

I think it was Mick Fitzgerald, and others, that have said to win a KG you have to stay well, because of the pace of the race it is normally ran at.
Yes 3m going right handed on a flat track is a fair bit different to going 3m2 at Cheltenham, but both races you need a stayer.
Is Shishkin a good enough stayer? Think we have to trust our eyes from the KG and the trainer’s decisions until proved otherwise.
I do know though that Shishkin really should have won that Ryanair last year, and for whatever reason he failed.

He has become a tad unreliable and seemed to have developed a brain that enables him to decide what he wants to do rather than his jockey!!
For me he’s now a horse that runs when he feels like running and so may as well go for the best races he possibly can , and he is unexposed at the gold cup trip.
However you look at it, I do think he adds a lot to the Gold Cup build up, and I really hope he turns up in it.

As for Hendo, yep I can see your point about how long he ran over 2 miles, but he did keep winning good races up to and inc the Energumene race at Ascot.
Think after that was when he developed his brain!!!

 

[Lobos]

Paul Nicholls, said: “Harry said after he made his mistakes he was never really going, he pulled up a tad sore and stiff. He must have pulled himself about a bit, which he’s done in the past. The thing is I’ve got time to get him right now. I know what I’ve got to do, he was marginally off and it was a slight disappointment but I wouldn’t worry about him.”

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Paul Nicholls, said: “Harry said after he made his mistakes he was never really going, he pulled up a tad sore and stiff. He must have pulled himself about a bit, which he’s done in the past. The thing is I’ve got time to get him right now. I know what I’ve got to do, he was marginally off and it was a slight disappointment but I wouldn’t worry about him.”

Cheers Lobos
Dont sound too bad at all
Bets well and truly alive

 

[Lobos]

Cheers Lobos
Dont sound too bad at all
Bets well and truly alive

Yep. We have one of the owners on here and he's said that SS has suffered from time to time with stiffness/sore muscles and it's clearly been managed fine in the past. 2 1/2 months is loads of time for him to come back really fresh, fit and firing on all cylinders on lovely spring Ground.