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2023 Novice Hurdlers

ComplyOrDie said:
I watched this but I'm not a massive fan of Andy Holding. It seems it time figures and that's that for him.

Time figures this, time figures that, I've been doing this for years, blah blah blah :sleeping::sleeping:
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I agree. I find time figures interesting as an indicator, but he definitely makes too much of them. Every year I watch the previous years previews back to see who says what and who is right or wrong. Andy normally offers up quite definitive tips based on ratings and he's wrong most of the time.
 
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Added Affordale Fury @ 100's on the exchange for the Albert Bartlett. I think there's a fairly strong case that is (or rather was) a ridiculous price (FWIW I still think 25's is fair). He'd be 4/4 had he stood vs American Mike and was always winning that battle IMO. American Mike is 11/1 for the AB with the winner, Dawn Rising, generally 20's. Sandor Clegane​ is priced up at 12/1 - he's just beat a horse called Sam's Choice 16L - Affordale Fury beat the same horse 18L. HDVL is 7/1 after beating Monbeg Park 8L in impressive fashion. Affordale Fury beat Monbeg Park 3L with Noel saying he 'did everything wrong but still won'. He cruised in turning for home and could have easily doubled that winning margin if not for making silly mistakes and encountering issues in running from the loose horse. Those are rock solid form lines with market principals. He's entered in the Lawlors of Naas which is what you want to see. I know he fell LTO, but he was so much better than his previous start. Jumped faster and quicker - it was a confident ride from Cooper too. He's only 4 and I love watching them learn their trade and get progressively better. Granted, not many 5 year olds win this. You have to go back to 2014 to find the last one - Very Wood. He was also trained by Noel Meade and also took in Galway, Navan and Naas before winning the AB at 33/1. Its a shame 100's isn't widely available but if he drifts back out I think he's worth backing, but think 25/1 is a fair price all things considered.
 
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Bit early to say he's only entered in the AB like.

But otherwise an interesting case and one I'll now take a closer look at :eagerness:
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I watched this but I'm not a massive fan of Andy Holding. It seems it time figures and that's that for him.

Time figures this, time figures that, I've been doing this for years, blah blah blah :sleeping::sleeping:
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Well , I am definitely no fanboy of andy holding either , just thought it interesting that he put in perspective .
some of the recent novice runs . I'd disagree with him about Jet powered , Thought he was mightily impressive !.
Made Lengths on a few of his jumps . Might have to rewatch, but i thought J.P. ran at least as well as Luccia.
 
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charlie said:
Added Affordale Fury @ 100's on the exchange for the Albert Bartlett. I think there's a fairly strong case that is (or rather was) a ridiculous price (FWIW I still think 25's is fair). He'd be 4/4 had he stood vs American Mike and was always winning that battle IMO. American Mike is 11/1 for the AB with the winner, Dawn Rising, generally 20's. Sandor Clegane​ is priced up at 12/1 - he's just beat a horse called Sam's Choice 16L - Affordale Fury beat the same horse 18L. HDVL is 7/1 after beating Monbeg Park 8L in impressive fashion. Affordale Fury beat Monbeg Park 3L with Noel saying he 'did everything wrong but still won'. He cruised in turning for home and could have easily doubled that winning margin if not for making silly mistakes and encountering issues in running from the loose horse. Those are rock solid form lines with market principals. He's entered in the Lawlors of Naas which is what you want to see. I know he fell LTO, but he was so much better than his previous start. Jumped faster and quicker - it was a confident ride from Cooper too. He's only 4 and I love watching them learn their trade and get progressively better. Granted, not many 5 year olds win this. You have to go back to 2014 to find the last one - Very Wood. He was also trained by Noel Meade and also took in Galway, Navan and Naas before winning the AB at 33/1. Its a shame 100's isn't widely available but if he drifts back out I think he's worth backing, but think 25/1 is a fair price all things considered.
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25 on exchanges now!!
Serves me right for going our for work do yesterday!!
Would have had a couple of quid on that .
Oh well.
 
BigChaang said:
Well , I am definitely no fanboy of andy holding either , just thought it interesting that he put in perspective .
some of the recent novice runs . I'd disagree with him about Jet powered , Thought he was mightily impressive !.
Made Lengths on a few of his jumps . Might have to rewatch, but i thought J.P. ran at least as well as Luccia.
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JPs race was much much slower run than Luccias, so she was always going to get a better time figure/rating than him

Given the way he travelled and jumped you'd expect JP to thrive in a stronger run race and put up a much higher figure
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
JPs race was much much slower run than Luccias, so she was always going to get a better time figure/rating than him

Given the way he travelled and jumped you'd expect JP to thrive in a stronger run race and put up a much higher figure
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Agree FF. The Tolworth should suit him sitting in behind Authorised Speed and picking him off late on.
 
archie said:
There are, of course, no entries yet for the Festival novice hurdles. The possible entries in the RP may well just be the musings of the tea boy.
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Tom Seagull ??.:snowman::snowman:.
 
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Bit early for a without market in the supreme, but pp/bf/sb entertaining it haha
 
Daryl Jacob:

I also sat on Impaire Et Passe, he worked really nicely. He seems to be going well and could make his debut at Naas on Tuesday, while he’ll have options at Christmas, too.

He’s definitely up there in the pecking order and there is a lovely horse called Dark Raven, as well, who won a couple of bumpers last spring.

He was out the other morning, we’re hoping he’s got a good engine and he could be quite exciting, so look out for his entries in novice hurdles soon.
​

Nice to see a positive word on Impaire Et Passe :excitement:
 
darlojim said:
Daryl Jacob:

I also sat on Impaire Et Passe, he worked really nicely. He seems to be going well and could make his debut at Naas on Tuesday, while he’ll have options at Christmas, too.

He’s definitely up there in the pecking order and there is a lovely horse called Dark Raven, as well, who won a couple of bumpers last spring.

He was out the other morning, we’re hoping he’s got a good engine and he could be quite exciting, so look out for his entries in novice hurdles soon.
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Happy to see Dark Raven is alive and well
 
That is an almighty drift on Invictus Machin from about 8/5 second favourite overnight to 7/1+ at the off in a 4 runner affair. Not sure the run screamed that he was showing his true ability, to put it nicely. Outpaced and beaten by a 500/1 shot when the race got serious after they went what looked a crawl at times. A bit dodgy, that.
 
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NeptuneByANose said:
That is an almighty drift on Invictus Machin from about 8/5 second favourite overnight to 7/1+ at the off in a 4 runner affair. Not sure the run screamed that he was showing his true ability, to put it nicely. Outpaced and beaten by a 500/1 shot when the race got serious after they went what looked a crawl at times. A bit dodgy, that.
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yes something a bit strange there. actually fav with a lot of bookmakers yesterday evening the drift stunk a bit. Although I fancied Itswhatunitesus to do him anyway. A lot to like about the horse, nice attitude jumps ok for the main. That's 3 runs now over hurdles. Will be interesting to see what sort of mark he gets, could easily slip into a county off an attractive mark. One I'll keep an eye on for sure.
 
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Hills taking a stance on Gaelic Warrior going 4s, and biggest price for Grangeclare West..
 
Myflutters said:
Hills taking a stance on Gaelic Warrior going 4s, and biggest price for Grangeclare West..
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I think the way modern bookmaking works means they can take a stand, lay any horse for a restricted amount, then bring their price back in line.
Long gone are the days when someone could go into a shop and hand over 5 grand, all online and monitored/tracked, my guess is if you play you’ll get something like max 50 quid…
 
What’s the consensus on Absolute Notions?

I’m not usually a fan of Land Rover bumper winners but I thought his debut was promising, even more so as Gordon didn’t have his fully pumped like other years. I immediately thought that the AB would be the route but then Hiddenvalley Lake laid down a better marker for that race for the same owners.

I’m not totally against him for the Ballymore but my instinct was he’s more of a stayer.

Would the owners throw two darts at the same race or are they more likely to try and split them with Irish Point likely heading down the 2m route.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
What’s the consensus on Absolute Notions?

I’m not usually a fan of Land Rover bumper winners but I thought his debut was promising, even more so as Gordon didn’t have his fully pumped like other years. I immediately thought that the AB would be the route but then Hiddenvalley Lake laid down a better marker for that race for the same owners.

I’m not totally against him for the Ballymore but my instinct was he’s more of a stayer.

Would the owners throw two darts at the same race or are they more likely to try and split them with Irish Point likely heading down the 2m route.
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I'm in the same situation with him. I'm not really sure where he ends up.

I've got him covered for any race for some pts, but not the level I'd want him to be covered at really.

I think Gordon and Robcour are lacking a Ballymore runner, so maybe it will be him.
 
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