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2022 Gold Cup

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Istabraq said:
Tell me when I should burn those Galvin Cross Country vouchers fellas…
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It would be an odd move for him to run in that now.
I'd say you should be sweeping the ashes away already.
 
Elliott will run at least once more to be sure he's Gold Cup class you'd think. Having been beaten by Frodon, and beating Minella Indo who obviously needed the race, I suspect has left him unsure and in two minds.
 
Spectre said:
Elliott will run at least once more to be sure he's Gold Cup class you'd think. Having been beaten by Frodon, and beating Minella Indo who obviously needed the race, I suspect has left him unsure and in two minds.
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Minella has a very good record first time up so he may have been straighter than people think.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I challenge you to substantiate that
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Declined...

Ahhh, go on then.....Won his opening PTP, won on his appearance last season and win after a 56 day break the season before. Over to you.....
 
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Lobos said:
Minella has a very good record first time up so he may have been straighter than people think.
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Minella over the last 3 seasons started in very lowkey races, races that wouldn't have required being 100%, this is the first time he's been placed in a grade 1 first time up. Personally I don't think he was fit, it was just a case of giving him a spin and hopefully picking up some decent prize money.
 
Lobos said:
Declined...

Ahhh, go on then.....Won his opening PTP, won on his appearance last season and win after a 56 day break the season before. Over to you.....
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We’re talking seasonal debuts not after a 56 day break which is nothing.

PTP season won on seasonal debut
Novice hurdle season lost on seasonal debut
Novice chase season lost on seasonal debut
Last season won on seasonal debut
This season lost on seasonal debut

So he’s Lost 3 out of 5 first time up. I’d discount the PTP run as he would have definitely been primed for that race as it’s the shop window for those trainers to make money selling on their horses. Therefore I’d have him losing 3 out of 4 first time up since entering the pro ranks.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
We’re talking seasonal debuts not after a 56 day break which is nothing.

PTP season won on seasonal debut
Novice hurdle season lost on seasonal debut
Novice chase season lost on seasonal debut
Last season won on seasonal debut
This season lost on seasonal debut

So he’s Lost 3 out of 5 first time up. I’d discount the PTP run as he would have definitely been primed for that race as it’s the shop window for those trainers to make money selling on their horses. Therefore I’d have him losing 3 out of 4 first time up since entering the pro ranks.
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Ok. Call it a draw then. :pig:
 
Managed to catch the race Saturday, so thought I’d put my opinion of it in as well.

Minella Indo imo was not close to being primed for that race, Rachael kept having to nudge away at him down the back second time round and was bobbing along far from home. His jumping was impressive though I thought. He stayed on as you’d expect and was still only beaten 5 lengths so I’d say it’s almost exactly what you’d want to see from him at this stage of the season.

Frodon gave his all as always and would have been primed for the race as always when Nicholls sends one over. Galvin was race fit and looked the winner to me, but imo, if he was good enough he should have won. Yes Frodon would have been primed for it but there’s no better fitness than match fitness and Galvin had that over Frodon and still couldn’t get the win. Don’t get me wrong Frodon is a very good horse but he’s not a Gold Cup horse. On the ground also, I wouldn’t take the opinion that Galvin was beaten because of the ground, he seemed to be travelling perfectly the whole race.

I’d agree with Spectre when he says it probably throws more questions than answers for Elliott in regards to Galvin.
 
Call me silly ​​but, in my opinion, Frodon and Galvin have beaten the reigning Champion. Therefore they both have solid claims and should be going for the Gold Cup. I'd even say Delta should go again aswell, thought he was travelling really well.
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Lobos said:
Not entered for KG.
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Yep, I looked earlier on.
It was with him mentioning racing him again at xmas.
A supplement wouldn't be a big surprise though.
They've earned enough to pay the fee.
Kempton usually comes up drier than anything else around xmas. :teapot:
And he ran Don Cossack in the exact same races.
 
Quevega said:
Yep, I looked earlier on.
It was with him mentioning racing him again at xmas.
A supplement wouldn't be a big surprise though.
They've earned enough to pay the fee.
Kempton usually comes up drier than anything else around xmas. :teapot:
And he ran Don Cossack in the exact same races.
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Yep, could be tempted. Hope not though. Straight to the GC would be my decision f I were Mr Potato and Gord.
 
Silverbirch said:
Call me silly ​​but, in my opinion, Frodon and Galvin have beaten the reigning Champion. Therefore they both have solid claims and should be going for the Gold Cup. I'd even say Delta should go again aswell, thought he was travelling really well.
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I love Frodon to bits - amazing horse, and with Bryony they have a superb relationship. But the Gold Cup last year showed his limitations, and PN recognises that. He can have a great career away from Cheltenham and from a course that doesn’t play to his strengths.

As for Galvin, I’m pleased to be sitting on 40/1 and who knows what will happen on the day, if there will be injuries, and one of the favourites will have an off day. I still expect MI to come on for that run, and we’ve not yet seen APT either - those two are rightly at the top of the market.
 
A week ago many doubted Galvin was a Gold Cup horse.
Now he has beaten last season’s Gold Cup winner who is favourite to win again next year.
And Galvin has narrowly been beaten after a pretty epic dual with last year’s King George winner.
Yes Galvin had a fitness advantage but Galvin best MI comfortably.
And if Frodon lines up in the GC again next year I’d be surprised if Galvin doesn’t turn the tables on a track where his chase record is 211.
Anyone who says Galvin is not a genuine GC contender surely cannot be serious.
I’d struggle to name more than 5 or 6 horses who have better credentials for the race....and that’s being generous.
Galvin may not win but he’s certainly in the mix and has every chance of making the frame over a trip which will suit him better than the Down Royal race which certainly favoured Frodon.
And would it be a huge shock if Galvin won, it’s obviously odds against but certainly not 40-1 odds against when you consider who he’ll be up against.
The only potential superstar is Envoi - the rest are all beatable
 
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Paul Nicholls was fairly adamant that he wasn't going down the Gold Cup route with Frodon this season after last year's race. He can change his mind of course. In the post Down Royal race interview Bryony Frost avoided being too specific (that's Paul's job etc) but hinted at a return to Ireland and the Paddy Power in Feb could be what she was hinting at. PN would probably want to run him once or twice more after that. Frodon doesn't have a good record at Aintree so that might mean the Sandown race again. But thinking left field there's another race Frodon could run in: the grade 1 Stayer's Hurdle at the Festival. The Ryanair is probably too short for Frodon now and could be a very hot race this year, but the stayers hurdle division seems weaker to me. Of course Frodon might not school and jump so well over hurdles and loses his advantage of jumping fences. It's a left field idea and unlikely to happen but Frodon making all to win the Stayers Hurdle would be a race worth watching imo.

As for this idea that Minella Indo will turn the tables on Frodon in the King George, I have my doubts. I don't think MI is suited to Kempton whereas now Frodon is jumping straighter RH he is suited more by Kempton than MI. Rachael Blackmore tried to compete with Frodon in the early stages on Saturday but had to fall back since MI was left behind by Frodon's better jumping. There might be more danger from some up and coming younger horse in the KG but I prefer to wait until we know what's running.
 
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Any chance Galvin runs in this AND the Grand National now? I don't think he'd win but he's rated 165 in Ireland and it's a compressed handicap anyway. What would be the chances of him running poorly at Christmas, running in this, then the Grand National off maybe 163ish? 2-3lb off the Irish mark for the top top horses isn't unprecedented - happened with Anibale Fly 2 years ago. Bristol De Mai (obviously not Irish) raced off 167, with an OR 169 at the time of weight framing as well.
 
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