2022 Gold Cup

[Big Bucks]

Minella has a very good record first time up so he may have been straighter than people think.

I see Jackie has already pulled you on this, so won't bang sane drum too much! But what I will say is something always stuck with me HDB said few years ago, MI always needs a few runs in before he's at his best (can't find or mind the exact quote, but something along those lines) So I think Henry and backers should be happy enough with that run, hopefully somewhere pushes him out another point! Still think him and APT are still backable at the prices, the rest in market need to step up and improve

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Any chance Galvin runs in this AND the Grand National now? I don't think he'd win but he's rated 165 in Ireland and it's a compressed handicap anyway. What would be the chances of him running poorly at Christmas, running in this, then the Grand National off maybe 163ish? 2-3lb off the Irish mark for the top top horses isn't unprecedented - happened with Anibale Fly 2 years ago. Bristol De Mai (obviously not Irish) raced off 167, with an OR 169 at the time of weight framing as well.

This is a good point and something I looked at the other day when looking to lob the Galvin G National vouchers on the fire.
It varies year on year but bottom weight could easily be 10:8 this season, Galvin may only have to give a stone or so to the majority of the field so whilst we were all hoping the quiet season hidden in hurdle and cross country races has materialised he wouldn’t be without a chance even off a big weight.

Happy to burn the cross country tickets but the National ones will stay in the safe….

 

[Bonjers]

I love Frodon to bits - amazing horse, and with Bryony they have a superb relationship. But the Gold Cup last year showed his limitations, and PN recognises that. He can have a great career away from Cheltenham and from a course that doesn’t play to his strengths.

As for Galvin, I’m pleased to be sitting on 40/1 and who knows what will happen on the day, if there will be injuries, and one of the favourites will have an off day. I still expect MI to come on for that run, and we’ve not yet seen APT either - those two are rightly at the top of the market.

There may not be a race over fences in March at Cheltenham that plays to Frodon's strengths now, but his overall record there is quite something. A G1, G2 and handicap wins off 164, 164, 154, 149 whilst being just touched off in another off 161. The Cotswold would pretty much be his optimum nowadays, but perhaps it'll come too soon after Kempton and he's indicating a trip to the DRF could be on the cards which would be good to see.

The only problem I see with that is campaigning both Frodon and Clan in Ireland after Kempton would mean he's probably looking at limited opportunities in good G2's here (Cotswold, Denman, Oaksey) which are the bedrock of a move towards another trainers championship - which is always his #1. Considering he's already missed out on the ? from the Charlie Hall and Haldon GC compared to last year. He'll need something else to step up I reckon.

 

[robith]

Minella has a very good record first time up so he may have been straighter than people think.

I ran the first up form in the Win Today thread. Updated for this yea it's 13213

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Any chance Galvin runs in this AND the Grand National now? I don't think he'd win but he's rated 165 in Ireland and it's a compressed handicap anyway. What would be the chances of him running poorly at Christmas, running in this, then the Grand National off maybe 163ish? 2-3lb off the Irish mark for the top top horses isn't unprecedented - happened with Anibale Fly 2 years ago. Bristol De Mai (obviously not Irish) raced off 167, with an OR 169 at the time of weight framing as well.

Absolutely. Might even be a nice prep for the national

 

[Stormez]

Absolutely. Might even be a nice prep for the national

Nearly worked for Hedgehunter when he was 2nd.

 

[charlie]

I think we’ll know by Xmas whether or not Galvin will sink or swim at the highest level. If he runs over Xmas in a decent grade 1 vs race fit rivals and wins / holds his own, then I think all roads lead here and those on at 40’s should yet excited. If the likes of APT or MI beat him comfortably, then they’ll have to question his ability to win the GC, but it makes sense as a target all things considered now.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is anyone taking Galvin's beating of Minella Indo at the weekend on face value?

Looked to me that MI would come on a heap for that run but interested to see what others think though.

 

[Odin]

Is anyone taking Galvin's beating of Minella Indo at the weekend on face value?

Looked to me that MI would come on a heap for that run but interested to see what others think though.

I'm not even remotely, but I've been completely wrong about him so far! I suspect Galvin would have beaten Frodon over Gold Cup distance on Saturday and that came 5th in the big one last season, so it does put him on a solid footing from a place perspective. Still can't see any situation where he wins it, but greatful if he does, I've got it covered and it will comfortably recover my losses on the XC and more!

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Is anyone taking Galvin's beating of Minella Indo at the weekend on face value?

Looked to me that MI would come on a heap for that run but interested to see what others think though.

Minella Indo - satisfactory season reappearance, never primed for the race but blown cobwebs away and will come on a bundle for that.

Galvin - race fit, came there to win the race and got outbattled by a wise campaigner who fights every time he sees a racecourse, didn’t possess the turn of foot to go past when he came there tanking.

Frodon - Nichols probably had race on the agenda since he didn’t stay the Gold Cup trip, took advantage of rivals who were using race as pipe opener, run the race in February and he probably finishes 3rd.

That’s how I see it…

 

[JackieMoon33]

Is anyone taking Galvin's beating of Minella Indo at the weekend on face value?

Looked to me that MI would come on a heap for that run but interested to see what others think though.

Not in the slightest. Definitely another step forward for Galvin but that’s not the Minella Indo he’ll face in March.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agree with all of the above. I'm still surprised by how he's been campaigned this season. If ever there was a penalty kick for the National, I believe it would have been him off a mark of 154.

​​​​I haven't done the maths yet but Galvin winning the GC will cover my national bets, but not by much:dejection::welcoming:

 

[jack1092]

Is anyone taking Galvin's beating of Minella Indo at the weekend on face value?

Looked to me that MI would come on a heap for that run but interested to see what others think though.

Not a mission.

For that to have happened, you'd have to think Delta Work ran big on reappearance (which he never does) coming back from a layoff. Galvin beat Delta Work less than The Storyteller but i do think Delta Work shaped with decent promise at least.

You'd also have to think Galvin/Frodon are 170 + animals to be beating Indo that far if he was 100% straight and on form?

There's only one man that will think all of the above and he's on this forum funnily enough.

 

[Magpie]

I’m quite happy to be on 45s ew on Galvin. Whilst he will have his work cut out to beat a Minella Indio on top form, I’m happy to have a live ew part on Galvin, and it only takes a few injury concerns for Galvin to go of about 12s or less on the day. Happy to have him in the book

 

[Lobos]

Thanks guys. Nice to know you are thinking of me....:excitement:

Personally I'm going along with the curse of the Gold Cup striking the likes of Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and Co and am completely ignoring everything that has previously ran in the race. I've just backed loads of Gold Cup Virgins this year and the big 'G' currently tops that list closely followed by Envoi, Eklat De Rire, Cloth Cap, Elimay and Fakir Doudaries. The winner will come from that lot. Don't care which one !

 

[Quevega]

Thanks guys. Nice to know you are thinking of me....:excitement:

Personally I'm going along with the curse of the Gold Cup striking the likes of Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and Co and am completely ignoring everything that has previously ran in the race. I've just backed loads of Gold Cup Virgins this year and the big 'G' currently tops that list closely followed by Envoi, Eklat De Rire, Cloth Cap, Elimay and Fakir Doudaries. The winner will come from that lot. Don't care which one !

No Chantry House ?
Looks the most likely to me. Of those virgins.
His form already looking better, in a fashion.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Thanks guys. Nice to know you are thinking of me....:excitement:

Personally I'm going along with the curse of the Gold Cup striking the likes of Minella Indo, A Plus Tard and Co and am completely ignoring everything that has previously ran in the race. I've just backed loads of Gold Cup Virgins this year and the big 'G' currently tops that list closely followed by Envoi, Eklat De Rire, Cloth Cap, Elimay and Fakir Doudaries. The winner will come from that lot. Don't care which one !

Chantry House on your list too?

 

[Lobos]

No Chantry House ?
Looks the most likely to me. Of those virgins.
His form already looking better, in a fashion.

Convinced myself he's Ryanair bound and don't see him as a GC horse but I may have to rethink. I've only got him backed for the mid trip race so far.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Convinced myself he's Ryanair bound and don't see him as a GC horse but I may have to rethink. I've only got him backed for the mid trip race so far.

I think Chantry House is similar to an old favourite of mine; Lostintranslation. I think he was always susceptible over two and a half but might struggle to with the Gold Cup trip. 3 miles could prove his optimum.

 

[Quevega]

I hope they don't go for the King George with Chantry House, something tells me he's not right for the race.
But Henderson probably doesn't see many other options.
He could run well in it, but doesn't look quick enough to me.
Still like him for this though.
Not that that last race told us much.
Apart from he's a more intelligent horse than The Big Breakaway, who's as stupid as it gets.