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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Cheers TotG. I get that one or two can be over the top by april but to counter this it was only AS's second hurdle race so had inexperience to overcome. Also the three closest pursuers had festival placed form so it looks solid. And yes i think he will beat BMG when they meet over fences
 
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Black Dog said:
Cheers TotG. I get that one or two can be over the top by april but to counter this it was only AS's second hurdle race so had inexperience to overcome. Also the three closest pursuers had festival placed form so it looks solid. And yes i think he will beat BMG when they meet over fences
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I like the confidence! I’ll be looking to add him into the book soon :eagerness:
 
Black Dog said:
Hello everyone,first time poster so play nice!
I just wanted to put Ahoy Senor up as a value selection for the BANC,40/1 with cashout seems pretty good to me for a grade 1 winning novice hurdler. His form can be tied in with the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett and he jumped very slickly for an inexperienced horse.Connections have said chasing so with Bravemansgame only 14/1 and beaten fair and square surely this lad is value
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Pretty sure Spectre feels the same way as you as he has put it up in his diary along with similar thinking. FWIW I agree and would have him over Bravemansgame.
 
spoke to Perter Scu on twitter last week about Ahoy Senor and he said he had only jumped small fences on the AW gallop won't get to see a big fence until the ground softens up a bit , said they were very fortunate to have such a good horse and he was very much looking forward to the season ahead
 
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Glad Spectre likes him,he seems a respected judge on here. Oh,and peter scu :fat:
 
Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.

https://twitter.com/istabraq_king/status/1435268006146453504?s=21

National Hunt preview 2021-22

Bob Olinger

6yo b g Sholokhov - Zenaide (Zaffaran)

Trainer: Henry De Bromhead

Owner: Robcour

Form: 11/2111-

Everyone knows Bob Olinger now after his superb display at Cheltenham in March so there's no point listing him as a horse to follow, he's much too obvious now. I just want to highlight something in case anyone is thinking of going big ante-post on him. First of all I absolutely adore Bob Olinger and think he's unbelievable. I hope he stays fit because he's probably the most exciting horse in training. I think he'll go for the Marsh Novice Chase and do have a small bet at a nice price from before Cheltenham 2021. However as an ante-post betting proposition he's done his job last year when he was 33/1 compared to much shorter now.

I've had a good look into his family and they don't appear to have any longevity, and have a history of injuries, which sadly raises doubts as to whether he will be able to stay sound during his career. I did raise this at the beginning of last season, and I spent the whole season just hoping he got to Cheltenham safely, as I was confident in what he could do once faced with better ground for the first time. Since then his latest sibling Never Feel Blue, has also unfortunately followed the path of his others.

His 5 siblings have only ran a total of 25 times between them.
  • His half-sister Daring Carlotta, was a high class mare, with form figures of 1113. However she only ran those 4 races which were only over the space of 5 months too, and was retired at 5-y-o, I'm assuming because of an injury.​
  • His half-sister Myska was also a high class mare, but only ran 6 times, over the course of a year, before being retired at 6-y-o. I seem to recall she broke down on the gallops.​
  • His half-brother Insult only ran 6 times over the course of a year. He broke down and had to be put down, on his 6th run.
  • His half-brother Six Gun Serenadehas had 6 runs (also 2 points). However he had 2 years 8 months off the track between his point to points and his rules debut. He's also had a year and 9 months off the track between runs since, and as of today has not ran since 4th August 2020.
  • His half-sister Never Feel Blue has ran in 3 bumpers. The third of the bumpers was only last month and she pulled up lame, and subsequently has been retired.
 
Can happen to any horse. They are oh so fragile. More reason to not have all your eggs in one basket and if you do go 'top heavy' on him,like I have, make sure you have a few back ups to soften the blow. It happens every year. This year will be no different. 2/3 of the current big guns will not make the gig in March. It's part and parcel.
 
Very interested to see what happens to Corran Cross in tomorrow's Doncaster Goffs sale. Hoping, if he is sold, that he stays with Gordon to keep the 4 miler dream alive. He could on the other hand be a very early casualty. He was a 'fun' bet but the joke may be on me tomorrow:rugby:
 
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Lobos said:
Can happen to any horse. They are oh so fragile. More reason to not have all your eggs in one basket and if you do go 'top heavy' on him,like I have, make sure you have a few back ups to soften the blow. It happens every year. This year will be no different. 2/3 of the current big guns will not make the gig in March. It's part and parcel.
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While injury can sadly afflict any horse the purpose of this specific analysis is that it might well be significantly more likely for Bob O based on what has happened to his other family members. I say might as I’m personally not sure how much fragility runs in the family, my instinct would be it probably does. Either way based on this analysis I personally would be more cautious getting stuck in to Bob O at a short price.
 
Lobos said:
Very interested to see what happens to Corran Cross in tomorrow's Doncaster Goffs sale. Hoping, if he is sold, that he stays with Gordon to keep the 4 miler dream alive. He could on the other hand be a very early casualty. He was a 'fun' bet but the joke may be on me tomorrow:rugby:
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Nothing wrong with that Lobos , i.m.o ! . we are all on the lookout for a longshot i think , .
One i have a small bet on already is Shearer for the bartlett @ 66-1., with Paul nicholls / owned by the Mc Neill family and ran in this year's bumper .
The Mc Neills love a cheltenham runner for sure .
 
BigChaang said:
Nothing wrong with that Lobos , i.m.o ! . we are all on the lookout for a longshot i think , .
One i have a small bet on already is Shearer for the bartlett @ 66-1., with Paul nicholls / owned by the Mc Neill family and ran in this year's bumper .
The Mc Neills love a cheltenham runner for sure .
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At least if that one wins I'll know who you are as you'll be the one running down the rails with your arm raised
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.

https://twitter.com/istabraq_king/status/1435268006146453504?s=21
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I think you'll find that I raised this issue last year in the novice hurdlers thread. I knew the family because I had a small share in Myska.

While the general point is valid, BO is now getting towards the stage where he has proved his general soundness but I'd be keeping a wary eye on him if they run him on heavy. Myska did indeed have an issue in her novice hurdle season but she didn't break down. She won a listed race at Taunton on desperate ground and was never the same again. It was a breathing issue (palate) which wasn't fixed by temporary measures (tongue tie) and, because she was leased, Willie said it wasn't worth our while paying for an operation which may or may not have worked.
 
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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Some interesting comments in this piece below on concerns with Bob Olinger’s family history injury record would make me think twice about getting too serious at his current short odds.
[/LIST]
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Archie brought this up last season, after I became all giddy about him for the Ballymore, and rightly so, but it ultimately amounted to nothing (the irony that Ferny Hollow was the one who ended up with a season ending injury after taking on Bob on hurdles debut) and Bob Olinger went on to do the absolute business for us in the Ballymore. It can be worthwhile noting horses getting injured or suffering recurring problems, but suffering a fatality on the gallops or racing can happen to any horse, breeding aside.

Bob Olinger is now 6 races in (incl. his P2P) and is yet to have had one issue. Of course, the chances he will at some point in his career are pretty high, most horses end up with some sort of knock/injury here or there, it's almost an impossibility to avoid, given the nature of the sport.

I wouldn't be viewing his current market price/position worrying about the possibility of a season ending injury, as I could do the same for every horse, and I wouldn't be having a bet on the festival at all if that were the case.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Archie brought this up last season, after I became all giddy about him for the Ballymore, and rightly so, but it ultimately amounted to nothing (the irony that Ferny Hollow was the one who ended up with a season ending injury after taking on Bob on hurdles debut) and Bob Olinger went on to do the absolute business for us in the Ballymore. It can be worthwhile noting horses getting injured or suffering recurring problems, but suffering a fatality on the gallops or racing can happen to any horse, breeding aside.

Bob Olinger is now 6 races in (incl. his P2P) and is yet to have had one issue. Of course, the chances he will at some point in his career are pretty high, most horses end up with some sort of knock/injury here or there, it's almost an impossibility to avoid, given the nature of the sport.

I wouldn't be viewing his current market price/position worrying about the possibility of a season ending injury, as I could do the same for every horse, and I wouldn't be having a bet on the festival at all if that were the case.
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Thanks COD (and Archie) for highlighting the previous conversations on this. I take what you are saying COD but you seem to be making the same point Lobos is which is that you do not think fragility runs in the family. As I say I’m not sure how true it is but I would be willing to consider it a factor when placing an antespost bet based on evidence provided specific to Bob’s relations.

As with all factors to be considered it has to be price related. It was less of an issue last season at 33/1 than this season at 4/1. I might be fortunate in that I am on Bob at a fancy price for the Marsh placed before this year’s Festival and have been topping up over the summer with free bets only. I would not be against a real money top up before his seasonal reappearance if target is reasonably clear but what I’m saying is if I do this I will likely reduce my stake based on this factor, unless anyone can make a case that fragility does not run in the family, and the evidence provided for Bob O’s family injury woes is likely largely coincidental.
 
It's definitely something to bear in mind, thanks for highlighting RC. To those who are more knowledgeable about the breeding side of the game, is 5 half-siblings with runs under their belt a small sample size to be comparing with or pretty standard?
 
https://www.theirishfield.ie/the-big-interview-king-of-castletown-212060/

This is a 5 year old interview with Ken Parkhill, breeder of BO et al. Because he's keen to keep some old bloodlines going, he generally leases out the fillies and mares and they are retired at the first opportunity once they have achieved enough success to make them a broodmare prospect.

If you look at the profile of the dam, Zenaide, the most interesting thing is what the optimum distance of her offspring is judged to be. It will be slightly skewed by the early retirement of most of them.
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/655094/zenaide
 
At the moment Bob Ollinger is just a horse I can’t get involved with. Even though we see the Marsh looks like the best option, I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure Henry De Bromhead’s first ever horse to run in that race was Envoi Allen, which was already a race set in stone for him. He has always favoured the RSA and Arkle, so I just have a feeling he won’t go Marsh.

Plus Henry will really be keeping an eye on where Mullins horses are going as well. I don’t think Bob is the banker everyone thinks he is, as we have Ferny Hollow who has already beaten him and Appreciate It closely matched, and the fact that Honey Suckle is staying over hurdles I can’t see Mullins wasting a year with Ferny & Appreciate trying to take her on, so I can see both going fences, especially as Chevleley Park Stud want their horse to go chasing.

Then we have James Du Berlias who was bought for chasing and I believe is one of the highest rated hurdlers to come from France and the fact that Mullins thought enough of him and was disappointed with his performance in the Champion Hurdle tells me this lad could be real class over a fence and upped in trip. Then of course we have Galopin Des Champs and My Drago who could be potential stars over fences as well. So for me out of all the ante post bets, Bob is the one I’m leaving till much later on in the season. For me the 25/1 e/w that was going recently (now 20/1) for James Du Berlais is the best ante post bet for the Marsh as I believe this is the most likeliest target out off all the above.
 
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