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2022 Novice Chase Division

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Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Thanks COD (and Archie) for highlighting the previous conversations on this. I take what you are saying COD but you seem to be making the same point Lobos is which is that you do not think fragility runs in the family. As I say I’m not sure how true it is but I would be willing to consider it a factor when placing an antespost bet based on evidence provided specific to Bob’s relations.

As with all factors to be considered it has to be price related. It was less of an issue last season at 33/1 than this season at 4/1. I might be fortunate in that I am on Bob at a fancy price for the Marsh placed before this year’s Festival and have been topping up over the summer with free bets only. I would not be against a real money top up before his seasonal reappearance if target is reasonably clear but what I’m saying is if I do this I will likely reduce my stake based on this factor, unless anyone can make a case that fragility does not run in the family, and the evidence provided for Bob O’s family injury woes is likely largely coincidental.
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I understand that I basically said the same as Lobos, but that's because I don't believe in the 'family fragility' line. I'll take each horse as an individual, that includes performances, which was a good job really, because if I judged Bob Olinger on what his dam had produced (138 highest RPR) before him I probably wouldn't have backed him last season. In turn I mostly use breeding on the dams side to gauge an optimum distance for each horse, and quality produced on the sires side of things. As for injuries I've never, and never will judge a horse for potential to get injured or have problems, based on breeding.

Zenaide has produced three geldings (Bob being one) and three mares. One gelding suffered a fatal injury during a race (something I believe can happen to any horse), and the other gelding has possibly had his issues given the lack of racing and is most probably retired now. Bob on the other hand has already won 5 out of his 6 starts, had no issues, but here we are worried about his fragility still.

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I understand that I basically said the same as Lobos, but that's because I don't believe in the 'family fragility' line. I'll take each horse as an individual, that includes performances, which was a good job really, because if I judged Bob Olinger on what his dam had produced (138 highest RPR) before him I probably wouldn't have backed him last season. In turn I mostly use breeding on the dams side to gauge an optimum distance for each horse, and quality produced on the sires side of things. As for injuries I've never, and never will judge a horse for potential to get injured or have problems, based on breeding.

Zenaide has produced three geldings (Bob being one) and three mares. One gelding suffered a fatal injury during a race (something I believe can happen to any horse), and the other gelding has possibly had his issues given the lack of racing and is most probably retired now. Bob on the other hand has already won 5 out of his 6 starts, had no issues, but here we are worried about his fragility still.

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.
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I think you are spot on re not believing in the 'family fragility' line, and it being a worry that that needn't exist. I'm all for going over things thoroughly, and looking at every possible angle (not much else to do in September), but the sample size has to big enough to draw meaningful conclusions, and horses get injured all the time, so I'd have to see a similar injury occurring in a large sample size across the same bloodline before I let fragility enter my mind in that type of way. There are so many question marks re ability, target, jumping, ground, run style, competition, breeding etc etc, that it can become easy to over analyse things and this smacks of that IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.
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Yep, that’d be my thinking.
Having raised the subject in the first place archie effectively said earlier that any generic weakness should have shown itself by now and the fact the horse has completed six races (inc PTP) with two of those coming at G1 level where the body is stretched against better animals, I think it’s time to ignore the theory the breeding line is weak.
That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on any more prodigy during the early stages of their career…
 
COD, I know you are heavily into your breeding and I always look out for your thoughts on certain horses. In respect of Bob Ollinger, on breeding what would YOU say will be his optimum trip ? I have only ever gone on what I see them produce on the racecourse and am convinced he'll appreciate a further step up in distance. In his Ballymore win he got better as the race unfolded and flew up the hill hitting the line with enthusiasm ears pricked. That to me suggests he'll easily get another 3 furlongs and more.
 
Lobos said:
COD, I know you are heavily into your breeding and I always look out for your thoughts on certain horses. In respect of Bob Ollinger, on breeding what would YOU say will be his optimum trip ? I have only ever gone on what I see them produce on the racecourse and am convinced he'll appreciate a further step up in distance. In his Ballymore win he got better as the race unfolded and flew up the hill hitting the line with enthusiasm ears pricked. That to me suggests he'll easily get another 3 furlongs and more.
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Both his sire and dam sire produced gold cup winners (don cossack and looks like trouble)

but his sire also produced shiskin so plenty of mixed messages there

I can see why people have mentioned the injury worries too tbh almost all of the horses produced by his dam have been fragile and none of them made it to the track more than 6 times
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I understand that I basically said the same as Lobos, but that's because I don't believe in the 'family fragility' line. I'll take each horse as an individual, that includes performances, which was a good job really, because if I judged Bob Olinger on what his dam had produced (138 highest RPR) before him I probably wouldn't have backed him last season. In turn I mostly use breeding on the dams side to gauge an optimum distance for each horse, and quality produced on the sires side of things. As for injuries I've never, and never will judge a horse for potential to get injured or have problems, based on breeding.

Zenaide has produced three geldings (Bob being one) and three mares. One gelding suffered a fatal injury during a race (something I believe can happen to any horse), and the other gelding has possibly had his issues given the lack of racing and is most probably retired now. Bob on the other hand has already won 5 out of his 6 starts, had no issues, but here we are worried about his fragility still

I'm not saying he won't get injured, history tells me you're going to be correct at some point in his career, but I think it's a worry that needn't exist at this stage, because, besides some guessing on the breeding side, he's shown absolutely nothing to suggest he can't be sound to race when the time comes.
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Thanks for this COD (and others) for your feedback on a subject I certainly don’t claim to be an expert on. I think what you have provided there is some decent balance to the original article and will likely result in me considering this less of an issue than I was thinking based on the article itself.
 
Corran Cross sold for just ?22,000 to Jeremiah McGrath/R.Bandey. I suspect this means he'll be leaving Gordon's yard ? Thoughts anyone?
 
Lobos said:
Corran Cross sold for just ?22,000 to Jeremiah McGrath/R.Bandey. I suspect this means he'll be leaving Gordon's yard ? Thoughts anyone?
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That no-one as an owner or even a syndicate at Gordon’s was interested enough to bid over 22,000 doesn’t look great.

No Elliott based Festival plot there, unless the new owners leave him there?
 
Lobos said:
Corran Cross sold for just ?22,000 to Jeremiah McGrath/R.Bandey. I suspect this means he'll be leaving Gordon's yard ? Thoughts anyone?
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Thoughts are that I cashed out on the NHC for a small loss. Nothing to see here from a festival perspective.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
That no-one as an owner or even a syndicate at Gordon’s was interested enough to bid over 22,000 doesn’t look great.

No Elliott based Festival plot there, unless the new owners leave him there?
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Agree. That is a seriously low price. Wish i'd have bid for him myself. He originally cost ?130,000 and he's been place in a Bumper, won a hurdle and now won a chase I a short space of time. Someone has got themselves a bargain there.

Edit......he originally cost 13000 not 130000. Perhaps not so much a bargain then.
 
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Lobos said:
COD, I know you are heavily into your breeding and I always look out for your thoughts on certain horses. In respect of Bob Ollinger, on breeding what would YOU say will be his optimum trip ? I have only ever gone on what I see them produce on the racecourse and am convinced he'll appreciate a further step up in distance. In his Ballymore win he got better as the race unfolded and flew up the hill hitting the line with enthusiasm ears pricked. That to me suggests he'll easily get another 3 furlongs and more.
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I'm far from an expert, but it is a line I like to explore and take seriously when considering a horse, that said, it doesn't define my decision.

His current optimum trip is the intermediate one IMO. I've no doubt he'll get 3m, of course, he's done it already in his P2P but the quality of opposition in any P2P has to be taken with a pinch of salt at times, so his class could well have got him through that anyway. That said, he also shows enough speed for 2m, and it's likely his only defeat over that trip was because he came up against a horse of real quality, in Ferny Hollow.

IF he turns up in the same form as last season, then his mix of speed and stamina will be absolutely perfect for the Marsh. I think, whilst he retains that turn of foot over the intermediate trip, it would be foolish to think about stepping him up in trip at this stage.

I don't buy into the line of 'buying him as a Gold Cup horse', more that they brought him to be a Cheltenham Festival hope, of which he duly obliged this year. I honestly don't think Robcour will care what G1's they win with him as long as they are able to win them, so even looking forward to next season I'm thinking Ryanair over Gold Cup, provided he remains unbeaten at the trip of course.
 
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Lbur4288 said:
Magic Daze has another entry, this time it's in the 1.35 Sligo on Wednesday. 2m1f beginners chase for 4yr+ mares.
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Yep, having had an entry last week they clearly want her to get some early season decent ground experience, would start to get excited if she gets a couple of runs in then heads over to Cheltenham taking the PTKO route to the Arkle…
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I'm far from an expert, but it is a line I like to explore and take seriously when considering a horse, that said, it doesn't define my decision.

His current optimum trip is the intermediate one IMO. I've no doubt he'll get 3m, of course, he's done it already in his P2P but the quality of opposition in any P2P has to be taken with a pinch of salt at times, so his class could well have got him through that anyway. That said, he also shows enough speed for 2m, and it's likely his only defeat over that trip was because he came up against a horse of real quality, in Ferny Hollow.

IF he turns up in the same form as last season, then his mix of speed and stamina will be absolutely perfect for the Marsh. I think, whilst he retains that turn of foot over the intermediate trip, it would be foolish to think about stepping him up in trip at this stage.

I don't buy into the line of 'buying him as a Gold Cup horse', more that they brought him to be a Cheltenham Festival hope, of which he duly obliged this year. I honestly don't think Robcour will care what G1's they win with him as long as they are able to win them, so even looking forward to next season I'm thinking Ryanair over Gold Cup, provided he remains unbeaten at the trip of course.
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Interesting thoughts about the ryanair, I will try and get him priced up for the double.
Easy cover bet if he doesnt go GC.
 
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Alexmilton said:
Interesting thoughts about the ryanair, I will try and get him priced up for the double.
Easy cover bet if he doesnt go GC.
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The Ryanair is only the thought process should he remain unbeaten over the intermediate trip range.

SkyBet quoted the double at 25/1 which I think is rubbish, given the Marsh/Gold Cup double for Bob Olinger is 40/1.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
The Ryanair is only the thought process should he remain unbeaten over the intermediate trip range.

SkyBet quoted the double at 25/1 which I think is rubbish, given the Marsh/Gold Cup double for Bob Olinger is 40/1.
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I agree, that's terrible compared to that.
should be the same price
 
Alexmilton said:
I agree, that's terrible compared to that.
should be the same price
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I was expecting the same TBH, but 25's is really bad given he's still 4/1 for the Marsh itself, then the roll up onto the Ryanair, you won't get less than 4/1 for him for that race even if he dots up in the Marsh, absolutely no chance, not to mention the double race risk, risk of making both festivals etc...
 
I remember when a couple of months ago 'Bob Olinger TWAR in 2022, Gold Cup 2023' appeared at 40/1 and it was roundly derided as a terrible price (I still couldn't help myself mind...), so 25/1 for a double that includes the Ryanair in 2 years time is absolutely minging.
 
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