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Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

Kevloaf said:
The only think niggling at me....is I feel like I automatically now dismiss JP handicap plots because there are so many.... but it meant Dame De Compagnie and Sire Du Berlais slipped by last year.

WHat I'm thinking though, is Barry was the reason they won... (which means feck all in this race obviously), but still..... JP plots are so, so often over bet.... that it's not smart to follow them.... I want last year to be a freak year....
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I know there was an epic piece of work done on JP handicappers last year, or perhaps even the year before (Charlie I think?) so the numbers will be there to speak for themselves but I think the whole subject is perhaps overstated. He throws so many arrows at the handicaps that he naturally increases his own chances of winning each one. When one of them does go in, everyone screams plot - but you can’t possibly back them all and I’ve made peace with that.

My argument falls down a little if it’s always the Barry/first string winning which seemingly it was last year, but I’m not sure that’s always been the case. (Actually just checked and Mark Walsh was on Aramax).

I settle it within my own mind by trying to find a few of the likely ones early doors at a good price. If I miss them so be it, I’m not one to go chasing them on the day at 5/1 (more fool me perhaps!!). I didn’t have a bean on Saint Roi or DDC last year but I was on the 2nds Aramon and Black Tears at big prices. I’m comfortable that this means I’m doing something right and it should pay off overall!
 
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I could well be wrong but off the top of my head last year felt a bit different with the JP horses that went in.
The stereotype for me is a horse with a fair level of experience, with a dropping mark.
Dame de Compagnie, Aramax, Sire du Berlais, Saint Roi were all progressive in one way or other and on the up, and ye to really show their hand.
And were held back for handicaps when they mostly could have gone for graded races, where before last year would have been the norm.
I feel like that is the JP type to concentrate on.

Jerrysback certainly isn't in that mould, even though he's still fairly lightly raced.
On my radar but not one to get me giddy just yet by any means given he's well found in both markets.
Can't help but keep going back to that second behind Vinndication in December 2018 but i'm unlikely to back at 16s or below, perhaps if he becomes Dereks ride...

Kevloaf said:
When he proper fancies one I get all giddy. #TullyEast #WhateverThatHorseWasInTheAintreeRaceYearsAgo #TigerRoll4Miler #Frodon :boxing:
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Not sure how Frodon made the list, certainly not one I backed. And 2 of those were 4 years ago...looks like i'm living off past glories rather than being any sort of judge these days :boxing::excitement:
 
Yeah Frodon was when you made me dump 40 points on him at Haydock :watermelon:
 
jono said:
He is indeed. Definitely caught the eye on his return at Ascot.
He was actually all but confirmed for the Ultima in 2019, before a last minute switch to the NHC upon day one declarations that festival.
So I always assumed if he were to return to the festival they'd go for that race.
But his mark of 142 definitely brings the Kim Muir into play and would probably push them towards there.
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He can't win the Ultima. Doesn't have the right profile. THE Ultima stat firmly against him. AIMHO
 
Do I see Jerrysback as an obvious horse for this when I consider how many well handicapped horses Phillip Hobbs brings to the Festival? Given it's very few I'd want a price. Then I see he's 16/1 and he's definitely not for me. Law of averages alone says that's a terrible price. He still has lots to prove, and has also had a significant spell out injured. His two trips to Cheltenham have seen him beaten 48 and 50 lengths.

If he was 33/1+ I'd might listen is someone made a really strong case for him. But he's not, and nobody has, because I'm not sure there's one to be made is there?
 
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....for anybody interested, Hills have;

Run Wild Fred 1st 6 today & a/r @ 40-1
 
Eggs said:
....for anybody interested, Hills have;

Run Wild Fred 1st 6 today & a/r @ 40-1
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Where is this please Eggs? I've looked everywhere pre asking this, promise. :numbness:
 
Thanks lads, much appreciated it. I was looking in specials. One point on this. I am a little apprehensive as I think they'll be on a proper lets scumbag his mark type of vibe, but lets just hope he finishes 4/5/6
 
charlie said:
Thanks lads, much appreciated it. I was looking in specials. One point on this. I am a little apprehensive as I think they'll be on a proper lets scumbag his mark type of vibe, but lets just hope he finishes 4/5/6
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I was too, they have a 'search' on the left though which makes it easier.

Really interesting angle, certainly something new.... I like it!

I've had 1 pt on the Coko Beach one and the Run Wild Fred one....
 
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Kevloaf said:
I was too, they have a 'search' on the left though which makes it easier.

Really interesting angle, certainly something new.... I like it!

I've had 1 pt on the Coko Beach one and the Run Wild Fred one....
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Ah thank you, good tip.

I think both are sensible bets. You kinda feel if both are good enough to win at Cheltenham both should be too good to be fully scum bagged, if that makes sense.
 
charlie said:
Ah thank you, good tip.

I think both are sensible bets. You kinda feel if both are good enough to win at Cheltenham both should be too good to be fully scum bagged, if that makes sense.
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They're mainly progressive and hiding ability rather than him trying to get them to collapse through the handicaps trying to get back down to a winnable mark.

That's how I see these two, a PU for either isn't useful for Cheltenham. A staying on place is...and a win, you just have to take on the chin and look for whatever else he has entered for Cheltenham.... unless they win very snug :cheerful:
 
Kevloaf said:
They're mainly progressive and hiding ability rather than him trying to get them to collapse through the handicaps trying to get back down to a winnable mark.

That's how I see these two, a PU for either isn't useful for Cheltenham. A staying on place is...and a win, you just have to take on the chin and look for whatever else he has entered for Cheltenham.... unless they win very snug :cheerful:
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Yeh very true. We need something to go off like a complete lunatic here with Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred making up ground late into 5th and 6th :excitement:
 
charlie said:
Yeh very true. We need something to go off like a complete lunatic here with Coko Beach and Run Wild Fred making up ground late into 5th and 6th :excitement:
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The "lunatic" could be Acapella Bourgeois He did that in a bog @ Navan 4 year ago when trained by Sandra Hughes and won 32l from Road to Respect. Interesting to see if Townend tries to steal 4 or 5l at the start
 
Pendil said:
The "lunatic" could be Acapella Bourgeois He did that in a bog @ Navan 4 year ago when trained by Sandra Hughes and won 32l from Road to Respect. Interesting to see if Townend tries to steal 4 or 5l at the start
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Very true, or Cabaret Queen who made all like a lunatic at Listowel. I fancy Cabaret Queen today actually, but I think we'll all be looking back to RWF and CB!!!
 
Well there go both their handicap marks :boxing:
 
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