Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

[Madmoose]

Have 33/1 for RWF so praying he is sub 145

 

[Brital]

I think your going too overboard. On all previous years the 2nd has never gone up more than 4 pounds in the thyestes.

The winner is blown for sure.

But I wouldnt be so sure about the 2nd
if say 139-140 Irish after that, would be very harsh for the uk to go above 145 when he has been campaigned fairly.

I hope you’re right Scooby.
On the basis that you should encourage what you want more of.
Then the UK handicapper should be more lenient on Irish Marks when the horse has performed well in big races, and be more inclined to increase those that have tried to hide their talents.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think Scooby is spot on.

Class Conti only got raised 2lb for a similar 2nd placed run last year. I suppose the issue is that he was already 145 so only went to 147 which makes it harder to use that to guess what they will do with RWF when he was only 136 before today.

But I think it helps greatly that Class Conti finished 3rd this time around, so he would be the obvious benchmark for the handicapper. If he's run this race, and there isnt any reason to think he hasnt, that would give RWF 138/139. Which should be absolutely fine for this.

 

[Muswell]

18/1 with a boost with the magic sign

 

[isitmarchyet]

No quotes from Gordon, but Jack Kennedy on Coko Beach (and Farclas):

He’s been struggling to win a beginners’ chase. Gordon asked me the other morning what I’d like to ride in it and I was thinking Farclas but he didn’t show up here. Gordon fancied this lad and I went with what he said and thank God he was right.

“I got left at the start but he winged the first and was able to travel well enough to get me into a position. I was handy the whole way and on that ground you are not going to get too many coming from behind.

“The blinkers sharpened him up an awful lot and he travelled a lot better than he has been.

“We went a good gallop down to the first and steadied up after that. Normally in this race it’s an end to end gallop but we went a nice sensible gallop today.

"It was very easy and he jumped and travelled unbelievably well. I couldn't believe how well I was going after jumping the third last and he did it very well.

"He jumps very well so that is a massive help going in to your first handicap; if they can jump well it's half the battle.

"He has been struggling to get off the mark over fences and the blinkers made a massive difference today.

"It's a big race and one of the biggest handicaps of the year so it's great to win it."

http://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...r-Gigginstown-Elliott-and-Kennedy&prid=215324

 

[RufusFlynn]

Kicking myself re Coko Beach today; as someone else alluded... probably thinking with the Cheltenham blinkers on. Thinking back, I'm pretty sure Gordon's quotes around the start of the season mentioned 'aimed at a decent handicap chase'. Foolish to think they wouldn't target one in Ireland.

Same goes for Column of Fire and the likes of the Bosses Oscar and decent handicap hurdle pots were mentioned at the start of the season.

Anyhow, we live and learn. :stung:

 

[Kautostar]

Kicking myself re Coko Beach today; as someone else alluded... probably thinking with the Cheltenham blinkers on. Thinking back, I'm pretty sure Gordon's quotes around the start of the season mentioned 'aimed at a decent handicap chase'. Foolish to think they wouldn't target one in Ireland.

Same goes for Column of Fire and the likes of the Bosses Oscar and decent handicap hurdle pots were mentioned at the start of the season.

Anyhow, we live and learn. :stung:

Maybe this season is a little different too with the whole covid situation maybe trainers/owners aren’t willing to wait for a Cheltenham plot like they would do in previous years in case the unthinkable happens and they aren’t allowed over.

 

[charlie]

I think Scooby is spot on.

Class Conti only got raised 2lb for a similar 2nd placed run last year. I suppose the issue is that he was already 145 so only went to 147 which makes it harder to use that to guess what they will do with RWF when he was only 136 before today.

But I think it helps greatly that Class Conti finished 3rd this time around, so he would be the obvious benchmark for the handicapper. If he's run this race, and there isnt any reason to think he hasnt, that would give RWF 138/139. Which should be absolutely fine for this.

You are right, I went OTT post race. I think he'll get 3 or 4 from the Irish and hopefully stops there!

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Looking back at past winners, revised marks and how easy that looked, I'd be surprised if CB wasn't raised 13/14 after that.

I think RWF will be fucked too. If CB goes up to 150 and CC is deemed to run to a mark of 147 then there's no way he'll escape sub 145 IMO. Hope I am wrong.

I checked that too Charlie, two easy winning novices in the race were given 13lb rises.

The gaps behind the first three today were vast, the 4th was beaten 12 lengths and the 5th 22 lengths, with the two upfront young novice chasers with ‘hidden talent’ getting them low marks, they’re going up a whack, in Ireland and then the UK.

On average the few Irish runners in handicaps in the UK this season have been given 5lb rises.

In chases looking at the three handicap runners that were novices and ran at Cheltenham this season,

Chatham Street Lad was given 4lb UK tax, but then won by a further 15 lengths
Galvin was given 4lb UK tax, but then won by a further 7 lengths
Court Maid actually carried less in an early-closing entry race than she had in Ireland, and she finished 3rd beaten a length.

The UK handicappers will be looking closely at the Irish Novice Chasers entered in the open handicaps, as they’ve already had their “leg lifted” twice this season - as shown above.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think Scooby is spot on.

Class Conti only got raised 2lb for a similar 2nd placed run last year. I suppose the issue is that he was already 145 so only went to 147 which makes it harder to use that to guess what they will do with RWF when he was only 136 before today.

But I think it helps greatly that Class Conti finished 3rd this time around, so he would be the obvious benchmark for the handicapper. If he's run this race, and there isnt any reason to think he hasnt, that would give RWF 138/139. Which should be absolutely fine for this.

Probably best to compare when novices won or came second, as they are unexposed in handicaps and more likely to get larger rises.

For sure, anyone who has backed Run Wild Fred for the Kim Muir should be thankful that Coko Beach was entered and ran today.:rugby:

 

[Pendil]

RPRs for todays Thyestes

Coko Beach 152

RWF 147

Class Conti 154
Class Conti was probably the Rater's starting point given same as last year. On the basis of simple arithmetic for RWF vis a vis the 1st and 3rd I think it should be 145 or 146, but that is nit picking except for those holding vouchers for the Kim Muir

 

[TomMcC]

Personally I will now be scratching RWF and Coko from my shortlist for this and look elsewhere. One won’t get in and the other is borderline.

 

[Craigy14]

Just catching up.

I’ve chanced Run Wild Fred for this with cashout.

Hopefully the handicappers are kind to him.

Coko Beach well out and it will be interesting if Elliott will run him in the NHC, giggs always like a runner in the NHC so Gordon may be forced, as such, to run another to Galvin?

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Just catching up.

I’ve chanced Run Wild Fred for this with cashout.

Hopefully the handicappers are kind to him.

Coko Beach well out and it will be interesting if Elliott will run him in the NHC, giggs always like a runner in the NHC so Gordon may be forced, as such, to run another to Galvin?

If I was getting involved now I’d definitely be taking NRNB over cash out. I know there are 4 points difference but I’m not sure how cash out will help if he is rated over 145 by the UK handicapper as think it will be a lost bet. I personally think he will be over the top now.

 

[Craigy14]

If I was getting involved now I’d definitely be taking NRNB over cash out. I know there are 4 points difference but I’m not sure how cash out will help if he is rated over 145 by the UK handicapper as think it will be a lost bet. I personally think he will be over the top now.

Aye I get that, can always re-assess after the Irish handicapper has had his say.

At present I think he would be ok imo, but then you never know what the English handicapper will do to him.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Wouldn’t have minded a price on Defi Bleu for this before he runs tomorrow. Bit of a forgotten horse who was 3rd in the 2019 Pipe. First 2 chase starts over an inadequate trip but was bang there when coming down 2 out last time.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Wouldn’t have minded a price on Defi Bleu for this before he runs tomorrow. Bit of a forgotten horse who was 3rd in the 2019 Pipe. First 2 chase starts over an inadequate trip but was bang there when coming down 2 out last time.

Not a forgotten horse for myself, as per my small passage on the Handicap thread (page 20) in the diary section :smug:

I really like him, and have him covered for any race as I couldn't decide where they would go with him.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Aye I get that, can always re-assess after the Irish handicapper has had his say.

At present I think he would be ok imo, but then you never know what the English handicapper will do to him.

That makes sense, hope you are right

 

[Viking Flagship]

Not a forgotten horse for myself, as per my small passage on the Handicap thread (page 20) in the diary section :smug:

I really like him, and have him covered for any race as I couldn't decide where they would go with him.

I thought there was a good chance he’d been mentioned somewhere.:encouragement:

The Big Dog also runs in that race tomorrow and is of interest for this too. Close 3rd in the Longhouse Poet/Run Wild Fred race. Looks a real strong stayer. 33/1 NRNB - think I will add him.

 

[doctorwu]

Absolutely, no point the Irish chasers waiting for poor prize money in Cheltenham Handicaps when they can win more in their own fantastic handicaps.

Coko Beach was brilliant there.
He looked the winner from a mile out.
138 rating up to 146 maybe (UK tax would be around 150 now).

Run Wild Fred ran well too, probably up from 136 to around 140/141 in Ireland UK tax borderline 145 Kim Muir.

They will both probably head for the Irish National won’t they?

Maybe the National Hunt Chase on the way for one of them, at least.

Fully concur Saxon with those words. I did put Coko up sometime ago on the H/cap thread. The other one who will be winning a big pot is Braeside, wherever he turns up.