Fulke Walwyn KIM MUIR Challenge Cup Amateur Riders Handicap

[HoldenTheReins]

When will we know what the Irish Handicapper will give Run Wild Fred?

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Yikes am I right in thinking that DDP was put up 12 pounds by the British handicapper last season, from 135 to 147? I knew he was screwed over but forgot it was that much. Not sure what his final Novice Hurdle rating was but based on what happened to DDP I’m not sure how RWF is getting in especially if he goes up a few pounds for the performance today.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Yikes am I right in thinking that DDP was put up 12 pounds by the British handicapper last season, from 135 to 147? I knew he was screwed over but forgot it was that much. Not sure what his final Novice Hurdle rating was but based on what happened to DDP I’m not sure how RWF is getting in especially if he goes up a few pounds for the performance today.

Yes DDP was assessed across his chase/hurdles figures and given 12lb more by the handicapper.

The Storyteller was given a big lump too, over hurdles because of his higher chase rating, despite only scraping through the Pertemps Qualifier he was put up 7lb over hurdles, making the difference between winning and losing the Pertemps Final by 1/2L.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

When will we know what the Irish Handicapper will give Run Wild Fred?

Tuesday morning.

He was 135 and Longhouse Poet 139 despite their underwhelming seasons so far.

Maybe both will come out around 140 or so, in Ireland, still just below their 144/145 hurdles ratings.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Okkkk so unless I’m missing something I feel RWF is a pretty poor bet now. If the British handicapper was willing to raise DDP by 12 pounds who had a very similar profile to RWF in terms of their Novice Hurdle rating, I can’t see a chance in hell of RWF getting in unfortunately

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Okkkk so unless I’m missing something I feel RWF is a pretty poor bet now. If the British handicapper was willing to raise DDP by 12 pounds who had a very similar profile to RWF in terms of their Novice Hurdle rating, I can’t see a chance in hell of RWF getting in unfortunately

I think 33/1 is a decent gamble against the risk that he wont get to run.


I'm just generally wary of the treatment that the UK handicapper may give to Gordon Elliott Graded novice hurdlers with 140+ hurdle ratings going to the Kim Muir.

The BHA Handicapper only has to focus on that one chase with a 145 cieling now.

Milan Native had a 134 hurdle rating, so Gordon had scope to play around over fences in his prep for the Kim Muir and still come in nicely under 145.

I'll be looking for something with a similar profile for him in this race, if there is one.

His other winner in recent years was Cause of Causes who was an established chaser (not a novice) when winning the Kim Muir.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I think 33/1 is a decent gamble against the risk that he wont get to run.


I'm just generally wary of the treatment that the UK handicapper may give to Gordon Elliott Graded novice hurdlers with 140+ hurdle ratings going to the Kim Muir.

The BHA Handicapper only has to focus on that one chase with a 145 cieling now.

Milan Native had a 134 hurdle rating, so Gordon had scope to play around over fences in his prep for the Kim Muir and still come in nicely under 145.

I'll be looking for something with a similar profile for him in this race, if there is one.

His other winner in recent years was Cause of Causes who was an established chaser (not a novice) when winning the Kim Muir.

That hasn’t convinced me...haha. Unless there is a good reason which distinguishes DDP from RWF I just don’t understand how there is any possibility that RWF can come in under 145, if anything he needed to get down to at least 133 but he’s going to go the other way after today.

I also don’t see the new Irish rating telling us much as the 12 lbs for DDP looks to me that it didn’t even take the Irish rating into consideration. It was just a big F U to Gordon saying there is no way your 144 rated Novice hurdler is getting in one of our handicap chases with a 145 ceiling. I’m hoping somebody is going to make a case to try and convince me otherwise ...haha

 

[Saxon Warrior]

That hasn’t convinced me...haha. Unless there is a good reason which distinguishes DDP from RWF I just don’t understand how there is any possibility that RWF can come in under 145, if anything he needed to get down to at least 133 but he’s going to go the other way after today.

I also don’t see the new Irish rating telling us much as the 12 lbs for DDP looks to me that it didn’t even take the Irish rating into consideration. It was just a big F U to Gordon saying there is no way your 144 rated Novice hurdler is getting in one of our handicap chases with a 145 ceiling. I’m hoping somebody is going to make a case to try and convince me otherwise ...haha

12lb was a really big spanking, I haven't seen anything else like that.

And 12lb brought DDP close to his hurdles mark.
Run Wild Fred's hurdles mark is 144 and his chase rating may rise to 138-141.

So a rise of 12lb will not happen based on a hurdles rating.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

12lb was a really big spanking, I haven't seen anything else like that.

And 12lb brought DDP close to his hurdles mark.
Run Wild Fred's hurdles mark is 144 and his chase rating may rise to 138-141.

So a rise of 12lb will not happen based on a hurdles rating.

This is the best NYE ever ...haha. So I guess the key question is what was DDP’s hurdles mark? I thought it was also 144. If RWF gets put up to 138ish I’m not saying he will get put up 12 lbs just that the British handicapper will put him up enough to get to around 147 so he ain’t getting in.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

This is the best NYE ever ...haha. So I guess the key question is what was DDP’s hurdles mark? I thought it was also 144. If RWF gets put up to 138ish I’m not saying he will get put up 12 lbs just that the British handicapper will put him up enough to get to around 147 so he ain’t getting in.

DDP. was UK 148 after the Martin Pipe 2nd, and I think he got dropped a 1lb after a poor Aintree run.

Ireland may not ever have had him that high.

So after his first few chase runs he was 135 in IRE for chases, then GE put in for a UK chase rating and they gave him 147, the same as his UK novice hurdles mark.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

DDP. was UK 148 after the Martin Pipe 2nd, and I think he got dropped a 1lb after a poor Aintree run.

Ireland may not ever have had him that high.

So after his first few chase runs he was 135 in IRE for chases, then GE put in for a UK chase rating and they gave him 147, the same as his UK novice hurdles mark.

Great stuff SW, thanks for answering all my questions. So on one hand then there was a 3 lb Novice Hurdle rating difference in RWF’s favour, but on the other the 147 (DPP) was UK rating and 144 (RWF) was Irish rating so maybe there still won’t be much difference in how they are treated. Really looking forward to finding out now. :biggrin-new:

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Great stuff SW, thanks for answering all my questions. So on one hand then there was a 3 lb Novice Hurdle rating difference in RWF’s favour, but on the other the 147 (DPP) was UK rating and 144 (RWF) was Irish rating so maybe there still won’t be much difference in how they are treated. Really looking forward to finding out now. :biggrin-new:

Good, 33/1 is a good price to find out. :cheerful:

 

[billymag]

In Run Wild Freds favour hes had a lot more runs over fences than DDP had when he got his UK mark, the handicapper would argue with DDP that they should of run him more to prove that he should be lower than his Hurdles mark, with Run Wild Fred thats exactly what Gordon has done. I think it will be touch and go but Gordon has given himself hope by doing that.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

In Run Wild Freds favour hes had a lot more runs over fences than DDP had when he got his UK mark, the handicapper would argue with DDP that they should of run him more to prove that he should be lower than his Hurdles mark, with Run Wild Fred thats exactly what Gordon has done. I think it will be touch and go but Gordon has given himself hope by doing that.

Yes, my gut feeling is RWF could get 144 from the BHA, as it’s (a) his hurdles mark, and (b) it’s probably going to be around 5lb higher than what his Irish chasing mark will be - and this season so far Irish horses have been given an average of 5lb more when competing over here.

That said, the Irish have been over performing their 5lb higher marks by even more than that. :eek-new:

 

[7barrows]

Is it possible Jandil could get qualified for this or maybe brown advisory as hes currently run to a best RPR of 145 for his two chase starts ... another tame run could see him creep in ?

His Bartlet form is good regarding the trip.

mullins doesn’t appear to have many entries in this though.

 

[Quevega]

I think the Scooby followers may be safe with Fred, but it may be a close run thing.
He's not run well at Cheltenham and has had more starts over fences, so it would be hard to justify doing a Dallas on him.
It's almost perfect training from Elliott.
As a mark of 146 or above would definitely be a massive slap in the face to Gordon. And hard to justify any other way.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I think the Scooby followers may be safe with Fred, but it may be a close run thing.
He's not run well at Cheltenham and has had more starts over fences, so it would be hard to justify doing a Dallas on him.
It's almost perfect training from Elliott.
As a mark of 146 or above would definitely be a massive slap in the face to Gordon. And hard to justify any other way.

The other angle to the Irish/UK handicapping is that Run Wild Fred was beaten around 4lengths by Latest Exhibition (a couple of starts ago) and that horse will be a lot higher up the ratings on Tuesday.

 

[Guard duty]

One i like the look of in this is minella times with henry de bromhead.ran in the paddy power chase and finished 2nd off a mark of 136.this race has become a good guide to the kim muir in the past (courtesy of gaulstats) and was raised 4 lb to 140 so i think this horse will next run at cheltenham in the kim muir as even with uk tax will still be under the 145 handicap ceiling mark.i have backed this horse accordingly @ 33/1 and 25/1 with the latter still being available

 

[Saxon Warrior]

One i like the look of in this is minella times with henry de bromhead.ran in the paddy power chase and finished 2nd off a mark of 136.this race has become a good guide to the kim muir in the past (courtesy of gaulstats) and was raised 4 lb to 140 so i think this horse will next run at cheltenham in the kim muir as even with uk tax will still be under the 145 handicap ceiling mark.i have backed this horse accordingly @ 33/1 and 25/1 with the latter still being available

This is the one I highlighted in the Members Diaries section 'Irish Race Planning - December' (check it out):eagerness:

The only horse I would back early for this race at the moment.

JP McManus - Henry de Bromhead, Irish mark up 4lb to 140, jumps well and improving quickly.

Fingers crossed he doesn't run until he gets an entry when the Cheltenham Handicaps are announced and weighted around 142-143.

I got him added to Unibet market, they offered 33/1, and I took it straight away.

25/1 with WH was still there when I last looked.

 

[HoldenTheReins]

HRI has RWF gone up to 136 from 135. Is that the final mark?