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King George VI Chase 2020

Outlaw said:
10pter, do you increase stakes for value or just on strong opinions? If it's the former what would you have him at Q?
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Most of the time it's when I believe I can narrow the opposition (likely winners) down to 1 or 2. And the prices are wrong on the main 2.
This looks a bit deeper than some recent renewals.
But I believe the top 2 in the market are the right ones.
But CDO should be 7/4 ish.
So in what I think is a 2 horse race (for the win)
9/4 would be worth a decent bet.
5/2 would be really good value.

So a bit of both.
Especially If I fancy one of them - and they are wrongly priced
 
Quevega said:
Most of the time it's when I believe I can narrow the opposition (likely winners) down to 1 or 2. And the prices are wrong on the main 2.
This looks a bit deeper than some recent renewals.
But I believe the top 2 in the market are the right ones.
But CDO should be 7/4 ish.
So in what I think is a 2 horse race (for the win)
9/4 would be worth a decent bet.
5/2 would be really good value.

So a bit of both.
Especially If I fancy one of them - and they are wrongly priced
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Fair enough I hope you're confidence bears fruition bud, looks much better than last year and about on a par with 2018s on paper so if they all run to form could be an absolute cracker. I'd have him Fav rather than JF for what it's worth but marginal, I hope it's as good a race as I think it could be this year.
 
Still in the back of my mind I think clan is flattered by both his King George wins

He beat a way past his best thistlecrack in 2018

With native river (too slow) and Politologue (non stayer) in behind

Then last year the jockeys of both his main rivals said they knew they weren't travelling at all after a couple of fences

I'm hoping we see the Cyrname who beat altior and who destroyed the field in that ascot chase. I simply dont think Clan could beat him in that form, and I get the feeling Nicholls thinks that too but doesn't want to say it.
 
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All ratings are subjective but...

Best RPR/Recent RPR/Timeform/OR

Clan Des Obeaux 178/175/167/171
Cyrname 181/174/174/176

If they're both in the same sort of form and Cyrname stays the trip at G1 pace, he should win by most measures. It would be disappointing if an admirable but bang average (by G1 standards) horse like CDO was a 3 time winner of such a prestigious race.
 
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archie said:
All ratings are subjective but...

Best RPR/Recent RPR/Timeform/OR

Clan Des Obeaux 178/175/167/171
Cyrname 181/174/174/176

If they're both in the same sort of form and Cyrname stays the trip at G1 pace, he should win by most measures. It would be disappointing if an admirable but bang average (by G1 standards) horse like CDO was a 3 time winner of such a prestigious race.
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Are those numbers not skewered by having so many Gold Cup winners win the race archie ?
Previous winners Might Bite 172, Cue Card 172 and Thistlecrack 171 have had similar chase marks to CDO.
CDO will never win a Gold Cup and he could probably win a Ryanair by half the track and not get a Long Run/Kauto Star mark, what I think we have in CDO is a genuine 3m horse on a flat track, something of a Kempton/King George specialist.
If the most suitable races for him are 3m flat track G1s then I can’t see him ever achieving a rating that compares to Gold Cup winners...
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Still in the back of my mind I think clan is flattered by both his King George wins

He beat a way past his best thistlecrack in 2018

With native river (too slow) and Politologue (non stayer) in behind

Then last year the jockeys of both his main rivals said they knew they weren't travelling at all after a couple of fences

I'm hoping we see the Cyrname who beat altior and who destroyed the field in that ascot chase. I simply dont think Clan could beat him in that form, and I get the feeling Nicholls thinks that too but doesn't want to say it.
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That Ascot chase win puts him 10lb ahead of the opposition tomorrow IMO. He has won twice around Kempton and now looks like he can stay 3ml. At around 3/1 I think he is worth 5pts
Cyrname that is
 
Saint Calvados is the value bet for me at 20-1 with B365.

He's never been beaten first time out in all four of his previous seasons.

And he's a potential improver in his first try over 3 miles on the back of a great run in the Ryanair. I don't think he'll struggle to get the trip round Kempton.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Saint Calvados is the value bet for me at 20-1 with B365.

He's never been beaten first time out in all four of his previous seasons.

And he's a potential improver in his first try over 3 miles on the back of a great run in the Ryanair. I don't think he'll struggle to get the trip round Kempton.
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Stable form is what stops me following you in on this. Since win 39 runs 42 days
 
Pendil said:
Stable form is what stops me following you in on this. Since win 39 runs 42 days
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Haha...yeah it is the elephant in the room.

For the record I've also had a cheeky 0.5 point Saint Calvados double to win the King George and the Gold Cup at 200-1.

I think Eggs said it was 300-1 originally so I haven't even got the value.

But it's a fun bet.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Saint Calvados is the value bet for me at 20-1 with B365.

He's never been beaten first time out in all four of his previous seasons.

And he's a potential improver in his first try over 3 miles on the back of a great run in the Ryanair. I don't think he'll struggle to get the trip round Kempton.
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Could even have a related e/w double with a plus tard in the savills
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Saint Calvados is the value bet for me at 20-1 with B365.

He's never been beaten first time out in all four of his previous seasons.

And he's a potential improver in his first try over 3 miles on the back of a great run in the Ryanair. I don't think he'll struggle to get the trip round Kempton.
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I'm sitting on a 33-1 a/p ticket for Saint Calvados too. Didn't think i'd even get a run , i read something about him having blood poisoning ??.
 
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I think CDO will make it the hat trick.

Cyrname is going to face a different task altogether having beaten inferior rivals lto.
 
I'm with team Saint Calvados here at the prices. If he doesnt fluff the last in the Ryanair I think he wins.

What price would Min be here if he was entered ?
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Haha...yeah it is the elephant in the room.

For the record I've also had a cheeky 0.5 point Saint Calvados double to win the King George and the Gold Cup at 200-1.

I think Eggs said it was 300-1 originally so I haven't even got the value.

But it's a fun bet.
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I like Saint Calvados ew at the prices.

BTW NC B365 still have him @300/1 for KG and GC.
Worth a fun fiver to be sitting on him to win ?1,500 at Cheltenham should he oblige tomorrow :angel:
 
Brital said:
I like Saint Calvados ew at the prices.

BTW NC B365 still have him @300/1 for KG and GC.
Worth a fun fiver to be sitting on him to win ?1,500 at Cheltenham should he oblige tomorrow :angel:
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Thanks for the Christmas present Brital - I'm on board with the B365 Santa Calvados special.

Good luck pal.
 
They only let me have 83p on that Saint Calvados special... should I be worried? Such a small stakes gambler I've never had any restrictions before. :grumpy:
 
isitmarchyet said:
They only let me have 83p on that Saint Calvados special... should I be worried? Such a small stakes gambler I've never had any restrictions before. :grumpy:
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The only thing you should be worried about is that you wasted 83p, imagine the fun you could have had with that in the pic&mix counter! I’ll give you 1500 myself is Saint Calvados wins the King George and Gold Cup!

:loyal:
 
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Just waiting on the prices this morning.
But it's deffo 10pt win CDO, will be more if for some reason he goes to 3-1 or something mad.

I'll have a saver double on Cyrname & Al Boum Photo for Gold cup, wjile his price is still around 11/2 , before new years day.
Would be a small consolation.
 
Agree with most on here, second and third fav look underpriced to me and little interest in Lost in Translation. CDO looks a solid fav but I do wonder if there might be an upset this year. All small stakes CDO win, Reel Steel (33s antepost), Waiting Patiently (25/1) and Saint Calvados (20/1) E/W. Also done all 4 for combo R F/Cs and T/Cs
 
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