I've got 3 pts e/w on
Real Steel at (33/1) :highly_amused:
Clan Des Obeaux at (11/2) in an ante post double with PTKO (20/1)
That's probably enough interest for me to have without getting anything else on.....but.....it's currently a 100% book though, which doesn't happen that often.
The only horses that would shock me winning it would be
Black Op. (100/1) If he placed at that price I bet some people collect. There are worse 100/1 shots anyway for place potential? A G1 placed effort over C&D last season is hardly a stick to beat him with.... but what a crap race in hindsight.
I can see why
Waiting Patiently (20/1) and
Saint Calvados (20/1) would attract some support.
Waiting Patiently went off
4/1 for this race a couple of years ago and got badly hampered and unseated. Since then you could
argue has run over trips too short as as we hardly ever see him it's hard to know exactly how good he is. It's not a stupid bet at 20/1 by any stretch!
Saint Calvados' run in the Ryanair behind Min is very good too, Min's a proper Grade 1 horse and you could make a case for him beating Min if it'd have been over further!
Min wouldn't be any where near 20/1 in this race, absolutely nowhere near, so I can see why SC is appealing too.
Frodon (28/1) for me definitely wouldn't be a Gold Cup horse and therefore people like to knock his stamina,
however I think he's proven he does stay 3m now over the balance of his good little career. However, everything went perfectly when he won the Ryanair and (lifted from RP) "just one Grade 1 win from 13 chase wins; tough to hang on to his lead" and I think that's spot on. Can't see him hanging on.
Real Steel (16/1) is only interesting for one reason, and it could be a complete red herring. The run in the Gold Cup was absolutely ridiculous, a clear non-stayer at 3m2f, but at 3m he's still on the bridle and absolutely dances in to the race around the bend. I've never been more scared watching a race live as he would have been an absolutely abysmal result for me and the way he loomed up stuck with me. Now of course, before then (despite a decent G2 win against Footpad) and after, he's got no form that entitles his to be winning a King George. I took a punt on him ante post based on the GC run visually and the transferring to Paul 'King George' Nicholls. With hindsight, I probably wouldn't have put
as much on, but I can see him drifting a bit on the day. Hopefully not!
Lostintranslation (8/1) has pieces of form that mean you can't rule him out. Beating TOTG as a novice at Aintree (who won RSA and ran well in Kauto Star) as well as a close up Gold Cup 3rd are very creditable. Also, you could argue he's got better form where he's needed a bit of speed too, all those runs against Defi Du Seuil (G1 winning 2 miler) mean he isn't a boat? He should have the tools to win this race, and went off 15/8 last year! He flopped though, and was crap on re-appearance at Haydock absolutely walloped 47L. If you knew he'd put his best hoofs forward he's a belting price, but can you trust that?! I'm not sure you can, so if he wins I won't kick myself, but I won't be on him.
Santini (6/1) I think we can all predict pretty well. What Charlie has said above is probably spot on. I think he's going to be steaming home but the race might be gone by that point. If I had to put my neck on the line though I'd say he
will get a place, but won't win. I won't back that though as the likely price. If he drifts though it'll be on my mind!
Cyrname (11/4) is so talented, I've never warmed to him though. If he hadn't bounced back last time he'd be a big price here. He was 2nd but absolutely thrashed 21L last year and the race fell apart. He then was beaten when falling at Ascot. Beating Altior in heavy ground beforehand was given as an excuse. Not the strongest bit of defense I've ever heard. Anyway, he then did two things he hadn't done before last time, which was win left handed and win over 3 miles.... but this is the reason I am going to oppose him at the price of 11/4. He was a bigger price (3/1) to win the Grade 2, against Vinndication, than he is to win the King George Grade 1. Now I understand it's not that simple, but when you're looking to oppose a horse, that's a funny and quirky angle that I'll hang my hat on... even if he wins, he was worse value than the race before, so muck.
Clan Des Obeaux (9/4) can't really be knocked. A dual King George winner, the 2nd fav he beat 21L last year, a creditible 2nd at Haydock on his first run of the season, he'll be spot on for this (I know Nicholls said he woudl be at Haydock, but if anyone believes that was the target and not this, they're mental). Having gone through it, whilst nothing would
really surprise me, I agree with the chaps above, CDO is the one I'd want to be on!
- Just had 4 pts at 7/2 on the double with Epatante with Skybet
