Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[darlojim]

Still no Elixir D'ainay in the entries this weekend, could they go straight to the Grade 1 at Christmas? Be a little unusual of Willie I'd have thought

 

[Kevloaf]

My main concern is that most of her form is right handed, and she clearly likes Fairyhouse. Of course that might be no more than coincidence. Her runs left handed are not terrible.

She is 3/4 over fences, all comfortable wins, and she has very easily reversed the Punchestown form with Brace Yourself. If you can use him as a yardstick then she has improved. It's a pedigree packed full of winners going back to the Arkle winner, Denys Adventure.

If you took last year as a case in point, the National Hunt Chase isn't a very good Graded novice. It would be different if we were discussing an RSA.

:distant:

Absolutely. Galvin is favourite which tells you plenty. Whenever I think about that, I think about how poor that Imperial Aura price is relative to Galvin's. Both the same price now, yet one is for a 'poor' novice chase and the other is a Championship Race for some people.

Anyway, I digress.

I don't think anyone is going to put me off, my next barrier is that I thought she was a good bet when (potentially you) mentioned her at 16/1 and now she's 12/1 without doing anything....so I want my additional 4 points....:uncomfortableness:

 

[Kautostar]

Still no Elixir D'ainay in the entries this weekend, could they go straight to the Grade 1 at Christmas? Be a little unusual of Willie I'd have thought

Still no klassical dream either I’m starting to think the worst for those two

 

[Kevloaf]

Still no Elixir D'ainay in the entries this weekend, could they go straight to the Grade 1 at Christmas? Be a little unusual of Willie I'd have thought

Still no klassical dream either I’m starting to think the worst for those two

I can't think of two horses I want to see entered than these.

Maybe Fly Smart :eek-new:


If we get to January without them, I'm in trouble :miserable:

 

[jack1092]

I'm teetering on backing her... she's only double figures still because she's not got an obvious top jockey on.

Trying to look for negatives though, that last run is head and shoulders clear of anything she's ever done. Is taking the 1 run too literally dangerous? Can she really have improved that much for the additional distance to go from being a handicapper, to a graded novice?


:numbness:


If I can't find a negative or reason to doubt her by the end of the day I'll back her.

The glaring negative is if it comes up proper heavy ground- but isn't that unlikely? Her chase form doesn't necessarily pinpoint her as a handicapper i don't think. That run behind Pencilfulloflead was on heavy ground and happy to put a line through that. Market moved her from 10s-9/2 that day as well.

 

[kinloch brae]

Just went back and had another look at the Florida Pearl and it is a strange performance. Early on she is travelling upsides the winner before losing her place and dropping back to last. Then she is rushed up on the very, very wide outside before dropping away again. Hard to fathom. At the moment I would like to put a line through the whole race.

 

[Birds Nest]

I’ve just been going over the Marsh, and keep coming back to Asterion Forlonge - forgive me if I missed any discussion re: the form line to Envoi Allen through conflated / opposites attract / Ensemble but he’s put up a significantly better performance (if not visually as impressive) than EA & is still available @ 25s. I guess the real question is do we see him going for this race, and will his jumping to the right be fixable pre festival?

If he went at all i'd see the rsa as the target, mullins said prior to last years supreme he thinks of him as a 3miler, also he's mentioned the further up in trip the less pronounced that jumping right would be.

 

[taylorch1990]

I do like Asterion Forlonge and have backed him for the Marsh, but I do have doubts about him. He reminds me quite a bit of Arvika Ligeonniere who similarly jumped to his right over fence (don't think he did over hurdles) he was placed as a novice hurdler then twice over fences he was pulled up at the festival. Getabird was similar as well. I may go. In again once NRNB comes round as his Chase debut form has been franked already. :grey:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I do like Asterion Forlonge and have backed him for the Marsh, but I do have doubts about him. He reminds me quite a bit of Arvika Ligeonniere who similarly jumped to his right over fence (don't think he did over hurdles) he was placed as a novice hurdler then twice over fences he was pulled up at the festival. Getabird was similar as well. I may go. In again once NRNB comes round as his Chase debut form has been franked already. :grey:

Does him reminding you of Arvika Legionnaire and Getabird not put you off him as a Cheltenham proposition?

 

[taylorch1990]

Does him reminding you of Arvika Legionnaire and Getabird not put you off him as a Cheltenham proposition?

Absolutely it does that's why I've only backed him to small stakes. It was before his fences debut in the hope he'd jump straighter. Like I said I'll now wait until NRNB before considering backing him again, but his debut is working out well Conflated won at the weekend he beat School Boy Hours further than Latest Exhibition and he went pretty close again just now. I hope they try him left handed next time just to see how he jumps.

 

[jonthehammer]

One from my tracker goes tomorrow in the 230 Punchestown, he was on the P2P Dossier, Eklat De Rire. I think he could be quite decent

Won well. Jumped very well. Introduced in rsa market 33/1

 

[Birds Nest]

Won well. Jumped very well. Introduced in rsa market 33/1

Hills were 25s twar now shortened to 16s... Bet 365 33s into 20s for the national hunt ch although still bits of 33s elsewhere. I had it in my tracker too as one of his best staying novices.

 

[The King Pimm]

I’ve backed Galvin & Lair Du Vent specifically for the NH Chase so far. The only other two horses in the current market that interest me at the moment are Court Maid and Pencil Full of Lead. Both are being aimed at the race and have already won this season and look very sound jumpers & travellers. I’ve just had 1.5pts e/w on Court Maid at 12’s and will pull the trigger on Pencil Full of Lead before he runs again.

 

[Kautostar]

I’ve backed Galvin & Lair Du Vent specifically for the NH Chase so far. The only other two horses in the current market that interest me at the moment are Court Maid and Pencil Full of Lead. Both are being aimed at the race and have already won this season and look very sound jumpers & travellers. I’ve just had 1.5pts e/w on Court Maid at 12’s and will pull the trigger on Pencil Full of Lead before he runs again.

Where has anything been said that pencilfulloflead is being aimed at the nh chase? I would have thought the rsa would be the aim after his last run

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Absolutely it does that's why I've only backed him to small stakes. It was before his fences debut in the hope he'd jump straighter. Like I said I'll now wait until NRNB before considering backing him again, but his debut is working out well Conflated won at the weekend he beat School Boy Hours further than Latest Exhibition and he went pretty close again just now. I hope they try him left handed next time just to see how he jumps.

The ability is definitely there, it's just his crazy jumping that wouldn't have me going near him for Cheltenham.

The NHC and RSA are run in the old course and this is a bit sharper/tighter than the new course and this may exaggerate his right handed jumping. I wonder if the new course would suit him better but that would only leave the Marsh as an option.

 

[Lobos]

Bit of a blinkered approach I know but these days, in the 4 miler, I just find the Gord horse, the Mullins horse and anything Jonjo O'Neil aims at it and back those AP and then just bet the remaining decent jockeys blind on the day. Seems to work !

 

[Spectre]

Where has anything been said that pencilfulloflead is being aimed at the nh chase? I would have thought the rsa would be the aim after his last run

I can't find the quote, but they said something about the further he goes the better he'll be. Leading to the thought that he'd be heading to the NH Chase.

 

[Birds Nest]

Im still waiting and hoping gallant john joe makes an appearance shortly, 2nd season novice rated 149, nice profile for the NHC.

 

[The King Pimm]

Where has anything been said that pencilfulloflead is being aimed at the nh chase? I would have thought the rsa would be the aim after his last run

I read something recently about aiming for the NHC for Pencilfulloflead if it comes up soft/heavy the week of Cheltenham. I think it was a Mark Howard update. I’ll try and dig it out

 

[Lobos]

I have backed Ontheropes for the 4 miler as I think he has the perfect profile. But, and it's a Kardashian sized but, he's rated fully 12lbs behind Galvin (139/151). That's a huge amount. Just proves what a good bet Galvin is. Only wish I'd have had more on him now !