Arkle/Marsh/RSA/NH Chase - Novice Chasers 2021 (new)

[AnFiieLD.]

Apologies, haven't had a chance to catch up with the thread so may have already been cover. just caught up with the weekend racing last night:

The Big Breakaway vs The Big Getaway

Both ran at the weekend - both odds on - both beaten. The former cut to 12/1 for the RSA & 16/1 for the NHC. The latter pushed to 33/1 RSA & 20/1 NHC.

To me TBB looked far more novicey & distracted during his race, made mistakes and was beaten by a horse that is unlikely to be involved in any race at the festival.

TBG looks as though he jumped reasonably but obviously faded fast late on and was beaten by two horses with chase experience/race fitness. He was also beaten at odds on on his hurdle debut so no doubt he will improve as the season progresses. he was clear of TBB in the Ballymore and I can't see that this would be reversed next year. The yard has said he is an out and out stayer so presumably the trip was also short of his optimum.

I would far rather back a horse for the festival thinking Willie Mullins can improve him than Colin Tizzard. Undoubtedly they would both need to improve to feature but personally I don't get the price difference. Strongly felt TBG would be a major player in the RSA so will go in again at the current odds and cover for the NHC.

Has anyone any info on the reason for him fading so fast? Presumably just race fitness?

Agree with this post - I was a bit worried about the 2 false steps he took after clattering the first and whether he was feeling something late on but nothing has come out from connections as far as I’ve seen. I’d like to see him declared again over Christmas to confirm his well being before backing him again but 33/1 could be big

 

[RufusFlynn]

Agree with this post - I was a bit worried about the 2 false steps he took after clattering the first and whether he was feeling something late on but nothing has come out from connections as far as I’ve seen. I’d like to see him declared again over Christmas to confirm his well being before backing him again but 33/1 could be big

Agree, a declaration would certainly ease any doubts - but the price seems way too big of an over reaction. Antepost market is so sensitive.

Can't see him going off double figures wherever he runs if he is fit and well come March.

 

[RufusFlynn]

Changed my mind straight away......

Allmankind 16/1 BetVictor

Can anyone see better?



I might even add that....

I think Allmankind is a decent bet. Looks to jump quickly and accurately. Would be surprised if he didn't turn up in the Arkle. The yard ran Maire Banrigh last season who ran with a similar style - quickly and from the front. Skeltons know how to produce a good jumper and are starting to achieve some good results from their best horses.

Seems to be into single figure odds now but could see him going off shorter still come the day.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

A couple of issues I have with Allmankind, firstly he's currently getting a weight allowance from some rivals, although he did beat Hitman/GA Law without such allowances. He won't get that allowance at the festival.

Secondly, and more importantly, his running style. It caught him out in the Triumph last season, and it will very likely do exactly the same should he turn up in the Arkle. Especially given the fact he'll not be alone should Felix Desjy & Unexcepted both turn up as well. They could all easily cut each others throats, so to speak.

 

[charlie]

A couple of issues I have with Allmankind, firstly he's currently getting a weight allowance from some rivals, although he did beat Hitman/GA Law without such allowances. He won't get that allowance at the festival.

Secondly, and more importantly, his running style. It caught him out in the Triumph last season, and it will very likely do exactly the same should he turn up in the Arkle. Especially given the fact he'll not be alone should Felix Desjy & Unexcepted both turn up as well. They could all easily cut each others throats, so to speak.

I have a feeling 'horses for courses' will apply heavily to Allmankind and how they campaign him. The Skelton's are verbal about Cheltenham not being the be all and end all, so I wouldn't bet surprised to see them duck an Arkle clash with Shishkin in favour of somewhere like Aintree. That's probably not what I'd do mind, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they did.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I have a feeling 'horses for courses' will apply heavily to Allmankind and how they campaign him. The Skelton's are verbal about Cheltenham not being the be all and end all, so I wouldn't bet surprised to see them duck an Arkle clash with Shishkin in favour of somewhere like Aintree. That's probably not what I'd do mind, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if they did.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me Charlie. I see Skelton has said the focus on the festival is not right online at the RP today.

 

[charlie]

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me Charlie. I see Skelton has said the focus on the festival is not right online at the RP today.

Yeh saw that too - even more reason to think he could set aside Cheltenham and target Aintree.

 

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin will probably be minded as well, he'll skip Cheltenham for a race course gallop, in prep for a bumpers for jumpers race somewhere. Just doing what's best for the horse, making him jump fences is unfair. Definitely not in the horses best interests going over fences.

Leaves the path clear for Allmankind.




:biggrin-new:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Shishkin will probably be minded as well, he'll skip Cheltenham for a race course gallop, in prep for a bumpers for jumpers race somewhere. Just doing what's best for the horse, making him jump fences is unfair. Definitely not in the horses best interests going over fences.

Leaves the path clear for Allmankind.




:biggrin-new:

Valid point, might cash out

 

[kinloch brae]

He’s raced once over fences and won easily so ‘clutching at straws’ seems premature. The P2P comment was just a brief observation, nothing more.

Just had a look at the entries for that race on Friday. Only 8, just further confirmation that the cupboard is bare. I would far sooner suggest that Monkfish will go off far shorter than 100/30 than The Big Getaway might go off single figures as someone has suggested.

 

[kinloch brae]

A couple of issues I have with Allmankind, firstly he's currently getting a weight allowance from some rivals, although he did beat Hitman/GA Law without such allowances. He won't get that allowance at the festival.

Secondly, and more importantly, his running style. It caught him out in the Triumph last season, and it will very likely do exactly the same should he turn up in the Arkle. Especially given the fact he'll not be alone should Felix Desjy & Unexcepted both turn up as well. They could all easily cut each others throats, so to speak.

That scenario wouldn't be a surprise at all. In the Triumph he couldn't cope with the pressure on front end, and readily fell into a hole when the gifted the race.

I have already made a case elsewhere not to get too carried away with what happened on Saturday.

How often does the Henry VIII produce the Arkle winner? Altior aside, it doesn't. There must be a reason for that statistic.

He is also a flat-bred. These days how many of those win Festival races and/or have any degree of longevity? He might be a one-off, but on the other hand you might not have too long to wait before he goes sour. He has already shown himself not be the most straightforward.

 

[charlie]

Just had a look at the entries for that race on Friday. Only 8, just further confirmation that the cupboard is bare. I would far sooner suggest that Monkfish will go off far shorter than 100/30 than The Big Getaway might go off single figures as someone has suggested.

My OP was in response to us discussing Chantry House, not TBG.

 

[Kevloaf]

That scenario wouldn't be a surprise at all. In the Triumph he couldn't cope with the pressure on front end, and readily fell into a hole when the gifted the race.

I have already made a case elsewhere not to get too carried away with what happened on Saturday.

How often does the Henry VIII produce the Arkle winner? Altior aside, it doesn't. There must be a reason for that statistic.

He is also a flat-bred. These days how many of those win Festival races and/or have any degree of longevity? He might be a one-off, but on the other hand you might not have too long to wait before he goes sour. He has already shown himself not be the most straightforward.

That was my initial reaction to the race and then I changed my mind almost immediately (but that's perhaps because I was looking at it from a 'book' angle).

He may end up avoiding Shishkin, winning another weak race and shortening again. He's already shortened from that initial price despite nothing changing.


There is absolutely no way I'd back Allmankind as my only dart in the race, and his price now is short given what he's done. It's a little bit like Brewin'upastorm last year getting shorter just because he's the best of a bad bunch...


I'm happy keeping Allmankind in my 'book' approach but that's easy to say as he's shortened since I said it. He's one I'll be happy getting rid of when we know the make-up of the race, but equally I won't completely rule him out based on that Triumph run... as he does seem a better chaser than hurdler and I don't mind having that on my side until proven incorrect.

 

[Quevega]

I thought the Henry VIII chase looked solid form as the protagonists all had winning form. All were rated around the 150 mark.
And he won it well in good time.

The age allowance really ought to be negated with normal improvement, but granted, that's not a given.

Skelton mentioned the Kingmaker novice chase at Warwick next stop ( so that should hopefully put to bed the "after Christmas issues" KB, or not ?):watermelon:

There are not many other UK novice chasers I can see that may challenge Allmankind at Warwick, so he ought to remain a contender up till March. It's doubtful Shishkin will run there.

Skelton also mentioned the Arkle then Aintree in his interview, after the win the other day.

His style of running may hinder or help him, it will depend on if he's hassled or not, and who else is in the race.
And jumping rhythm is a massive advantage in the arkle.

I'd not be very confident that he'd win an arkle myself, simply because the top trainers have such a stranglehold in this, but to be able to take 20-1 after he won the race the other day was too good to turn down as it's not inconceivable that he ends up the best of the UK based novice chasers (A fully fit Shishkin aside)

And If you win the Henry VIII and a Kingmaker, you'd be a fucking nob if you skipped the arkle on purpose.
Skelton's not a nob.

 

[Spectre]

Allmankind stopped too quickly in the Triumph for that to be on the same level as he's produced previously. Also de Bromhead said they got Aspire Tower home and he wasn't right.

They have both put the Triumph behind them and produced very good performances, so getting stuck in the thinking from the Triumph isn't the way forward in my opinion.

Also, specifically in the case of Allmankind, I think he'll benefit from the Arkle being on the old course, so unless he flops somewhere along the line he'll end up in the Arkle. Do I think he'll win it? No. Shishkin wins it if he stands up, and there will be plenty more competition. But I do think he can potentially place. The problem is he's an absolutely rank price and essentially unbackable. I need to get him in an each way roll-up somewhere along the line for my book though.

 

[TheRowebot]

Chantry House is entered and jocked up in the 3mile noivce chase at chetenham on friday.

“Chantry House is more likely to run on Saturday over two and a half miles than Friday as I wouldn't want to go three miles yet," he continued. "But there's also a race at Ascot for him next week as well.

 

[kinloch brae]

I see Court Maid has a handicap entry on Friday. It's a bit soon for me but hard to believe it was an entry they would have made if they were not seriously thinking about the National Hunt Chase. She might blow out but if she continues her progress then I would make her favourite as the only obvious advantage Galvin has at the moment is the course form.

 

[kinloch brae]

“Chantry House is more likely to run on Saturday over two and a half miles than Friday as I wouldn't want to go three miles yet," he continued. "But there's also a race at Ascot for him next week as well.

He isn't the only dual entry so very likely two small fields again. Let's hope he can both travel and jump better. He needs to.

 

[Quevega]

I see Court Maid has a handicap entry on Friday. It's a bit soon for me but hard to believe it was an entry they would have made if they were not seriously thinking about the National Hunt Chase. She might blow out but if she continues her progress then I would make her favourite as the only obvious advantage Galvin has at the moment is the course form.

The problem sometimes with the NH chase is jockeys.

Who do you think would ride this ?

 

[jonthehammer]

One from my tracker goes tomorrow in the 230 Punchestown, he was on the P2P Dossier, Eklat De Rire. I think he could be quite decent