March ‘24 FJ Yankee

[SeanRock]

The Sportinglife tipsters have been lurking by all accounts…

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/cheltenham-tips-our-teams-early-best-bets-for-2025/216719

[Guinness Village]

Bin

[parimutuel]

Enjoyed your write up Saxon Warrior on Golden Ace.
A golden era of horses there adding in Indian Skimmer, Triptych, Kahyasi etc

Do you happen to know if the owner I F Gosden is related or just coincidence?

[Saxon Warrior]

Enjoyed your write up Saxon Warrior on Golden Ace.
A golden era of horses there adding in Indian Skimmer, Triptych, Kahyasi etc

Do you happen to know if the owner I F Gosden is related or just coincidence?

I did think that myself, parimutuel

Didnt search for it, only to see if he had many horses, and he doesnt, just the one maybe, which is very lucky

[Eggs]

…..given the positive steer from The Fellow elsewhere on site, I think we should consider getting William Munny onside @ 25-1 Supreme ahead of his targeted run at Punchestown. Any 3 of the more definite shorties highlighted in this thread with William Munny could be the way to go.

[Quevega]

…..given the trainer steer from The Fellow elsewhere on site, I think we should consider getting William Munny onside @ 25-1 Supreme ahead of his targeted run at Punchestown. Any 3 of the more definite shorties highlighted in this thread with William Munny could be the way to go.

Is William Munny a good bet at 25-1 though ?

His form isn't great and the trainer talk has probably dented the price, and much as I like Barry, he's not really backed it up since that one occasion. And it's always been just talk anyways.

There must be 20+ other horses that would have equal or better claims as potential supreme winners.

He seems to be one that would be better as a win today Punchestown bet IMO, if at all.

He'd actually be a better bet at 12-1 or so after winning the Punchestown bumper. Depending on who Willie runs.

[Eggs]

Is William Munny a good bet at 25-1 though ?

His form isn't great and the trainer talk has probably dented the price, and much as I like Barry, he's not really backed it up since that one occasion. And it's always been just talk anyways.

There must be 20+ other horses that would have equal or better claims as potential supreme winners.

He seems to be one that would be better as a win today Punchestown bet IMO, if at all.

He'd actually be a better bet at 12-1 or so after winning the Punchestown bumper. Depending on who Willie runs.

….its a fair point (regarding inclusion in the Yankee). More generally given his price elsewhere, I doubt his WTAF price will be as big as current 25-1 with 365 cash-out.

[Quevega]

….its a fair point (regarding inclusion in the Yankee). More generally given his price elsewhere, I doubt his WTAF price will be as big as current 25-1 with 365 cash-out.

Yeah, can be deceptive when you look at oddschecker and often find it easy to fall into that "trap" myself. One of my bad habits for sure.
The old "stand out price" attraction.

I think cash out is of course a must in betting him right now, and he might turn into a champion.

Do you think he'll actually be favourite for the Punchestown bumper or even second Fav ?
If I had to guess, I'd say Not.

[Odin]

His form isn't great and the trainer talk has probably dented the price, and much as I like Barry, he's not really backed it up since that one occasion. And it's always been just talk anyways.

Outside of Good Land potentially scoping poorly at Ballymore last year and Marine not being all that at Leopardstown (both excuses I'm willing to forgive), are there any other times Barry has talked a lot and not delivered that I can't remember?

I've already backed WM so looking to see if I've missed something and need to reconsider

[Quevega]

Outside of Good Land potentially scoping poorly at Ballymore last year and Marine not being all that at Leopardstown (both excuses I'm willing to forgive), are there any other times Barry has talked a lot and not delivered that I can't remember?

I've already backed WM so looking to see if I've missed something and need to reconsider

He's only been proven right with Marine Nationale.
Regularly talks up his horses chances which is great, but needs taking for what it is. IMO.

If he thought William Munny was that good I doubt he'd have gone off 4th Fav in a field of 5 in a low grade bumper the last day.
But maybe he was not in a betting mood or speaking to anyone that was.
I think he said after the race that he should have been even money which is of no use to anyone.

He's as good a chance as most, but the "most" list is pretty big I reckon.
I can't really see the attraction personally.

But he was right with Marine so he has a template to go off and an eye, so it's putting your trust in that really.

[Odin]

Quotes from WM's last two races are pretty interesting...

25Feb24 Naas (15.5Sft, RPR 130)
William Munny will not be going to Cheltenham, I am going to bring him to Punchestown for the champion bumper and he is the one they will all have to beat. In my opinion he is the best bumper horse in the country - Barry Connell, trainer.

20Jan24 Navan (16Sft/Hy, RPR 117)
William Munny will come on for it because he was very green. When Finny went to put him into the gap between the two favourites he didn't really know what he was at or where he was going. Eventually he got through it and they had to keep quickening. He's very fit, he's not having much of a blow there. I don't know how good he's going to be down the line but he's definitely a nice horse - Barry Connell, trainer.

The switch between he's a nice horse to he's the best bumper horse in the country off the back of winning a race where he wasn't fancied could be interpreted in a very positive light irrespective of previous comments and their accuracy or lack of it. I'd be inclined to agree that he's not the best option for a yankee, given how many other horses could go well, but I find those two quotes and the circumstances surrounding them interesting from a singles perspective. The other thing to note is that he went off 6/1 of 6 horses on debut when the trainer knew he was fit and that he was a "nice" horse, so it's not wholly inconceivable he could have improved and been sent off the price he was - compared to if he was odds on fave first time around before nothing on his second run.

[Quevega]

Quotes from WM's last two races are pretty interesting...

25Feb24 Naas (15.5Sft, RPR 130)
William Munny will not be going to Cheltenham, I am going to bring him to Punchestown for the champion bumper and he is the one they will all have to beat. In my opinion he is the best bumper horse in the country - Barry Connell, trainer.

20Jan24 Navan (16Sft/Hy, RPR 117)
William Munny will come on for it because he was very green. When Finny went to put him into the gap between the two favourites he didn't really know what he was at or where he was going. Eventually he got through it and they had to keep quickening. He's very fit, he's not having much of a blow there. I don't know how good he's going to be down the line but he's definitely a nice horse - Barry Connell, trainer.

The switch between he's a nice horse to he's the best bumper horse in the country off the back of winning a race where he wasn't fancied could be interpreted in a very positive light irrespective of previous comments and their accuracy or lack of it. I'd be inclined to agree that he's not the best option for a yankee, given how many other horses could go well, but I find those two quotes and the circumstances surrounding them interesting from a singles perspective. The other thing to note is that he went off 6/1 of 6 horses on debut when the trainer knew he was fit and that he was a "nice" horse, so it's not wholly inconceivable he could have improved and been sent off the price he was - compared to if he was odds on fave first time around before nothing on his second run.

When a dogs adrenaline kicks in it's hard to stop them barking.

The comments disparity could be interpreted in a very positive light, I agree.
But they could equally be seen as a negative.

So neutrality might be best.

But either way, looking at the actual form is worth far more than trainer comments. Which was my original point really.

FWIW - I actually think the Port Joulain/GoodnKind bumper form is one of the better ones and look forward to one or both running again before the season ends.

[Exar Essay]

FWIW - I actually think the Port Joulain/GoodnKind bumper form is one of the better ones and look forward to one or both running again before the season ends.

Agreed. Good n Kind is being put away for the season now though, apparently. Assume Port Joulain will run in the Champion or Winners bumper at Punchestown.

[jono]

When dealing with such a small sample size (Barry Connell runners)
I’d very much air on the side of caution in how high William Munny may go.
And wait to be proven wrong.
For him to train 2 Supreme winners in 3 years. Could happen yes, but the likelihood has got to be slim surely?

You can argue Good Land came along at the same time as Marine Nationale.
And to even have a couple of grade 1 winning novice hurdlers was exceptional whatever the races.
But he was well held in the Ballymore, and his grade one win can often be a suspect race (partly given the distance doesn’t always translate to Cheltenham winners) where only one horse has come out and won a graded race since (Grangeclare West over fences)
And i was one who backed Good Land for the Turners the season just gone.

He’s not even on my mind at this stage of the year, in a division that will have countless horses, plenty not yet known and importantly a handful from Willie.

[HesTheOne]

Is William Munny a good bet at 25-1 though ?

His form isn't great and the trainer talk has probably dented the price, and much as I like Barry, he's not really backed it up since that one occasion. And it's always been just talk anyways.

There must be 20+ other horses that would have equal or better claims as potential supreme winners.

He seems to be one that would be better as a win today Punchestown bet IMO, if at all.

He'd actually be a better bet at 12-1 or so after winning the Punchestown bumper. Depending on who Willie runs.

Agreed. Rather watch him win at Punchestown and then possibly go in at a shorter price after. Been a fairly crap season for Barry, although a small the yard still 70 odd runners at 8% strike rate is a little concerning.

Hard to be jumping on an antepost of his in a tough market that is the supreme. Still has to beat a few Mullins Elliott runners first to shorten.

He’s just as likely to be 50/1 then 5s in a few weeks time.