Mares Chase 2021

[Lobos]

Nice write up as always Saxon. I've bet Benie & Shattered Love specifically for this race and already have Elimay and PTKO at TWAR. I may add Happy Diva because of her outstanding course record but as Others have said, at 10yo both her and Shattered Love may be susceptible to an improving younger horse.

[The King Pimm]

I just topped up on PTKO with my free bet loyalty bet from Paddy Powers. She’s 12/1 with PP in the TWAR market compared to 7/1 with Hills who tend to have the best prices in this market.

Nice write up Saxon and good case put forward for Elimay. She’s a bit skinny at 10/1 for a cash out option so I may try and get her involved in a roll up if something catches my eye. I definitely think this race will be won by a younger progressive mare.

[Saxon Warrior]

Nice write up as always Saxon. I've bet Benie & Shattered Love specifically for this race and already have Elimay and PTKO at TWAR. I may add Happy Diva because of her outstanding course record but as Others have said, at 10yo both her and Shattered Love may be susceptible to an improving younger horse.

Thanks Lobos.

147 is a big rating for a twice-raced Novice Mare.

PTKO had won 4 of her 5 Mares Novice chases and had an official rating of 141 when HdB ran her in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham last November.

Her win in the race led to a rise to 144, which was the rating she had when she destroyed the Arkle field at the Festival with only Fakir D able to give her any company at all up the hill.

147 is also Benie DD's official chase rating after 3 chase wins (inc 2 Listed races).

[Lobos]

Thanks Lobos.

147 is a big rating for a twice-raced Novice Mare.

PTKO had won 4 of her 5 Mares Novice chases and had an official rating of 141 when HdB ran her in the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham last November.

Her win in the race led to a rise to 144, which was the rating she had when she destroyed the Arkle field at the Festival with only Fakir D able to give her any company at all up the hill.

147 is also Benie DD's official chase rating after 3 chase wins (inc 2 Listed races).

Shattered Love rated 150 which probably makes her the highest rated horse in the early betting list of those likely to run.

[Saxon Warrior]

Shattered Love rated 150 which probably makes her the highest rated horse in the early betting list of those likely to run.

She is in the group of older mares who are around the same mark.
Lady Buttons 150
Happy Diva 153
La Bague Au Roi 149

[Hardy Eustace]

She is in the group of older mares who are around the same mark.
Lady Buttons 150
Happy Diva 153
La Bague Au Roi 149

All of which will be 10 or 11 next festival although i haven't totally given up on Happy Diva or LBAR I do agree with you that the most likely outcome is for a younger more progressive type. Elimay or Elifie for me.

[Saxon Warrior]

All of which will be 10 or 11 next festival although i haven't totally given up on Happy Diva or LBAR I do agree with you that the most likely outcome is for a younger more progressive type. Elimay or Elifie for me.

I think that as soon as the Mares Chase was announced last August, that Willie looked at his band of Mares and picked Salsaretta and Elimay to switch to chasing, and left the rest to stay over hurdles.

Salsaretta got going early and had four easy wins, only the last one went into Graded racing, though she did take on and beat the geldings on debut.

Elimay was started off a little later, in December, and straight into Grade 3 then Grade 2, giving a couple of Mares that Salsaretta beat, a bigger beating. I prefer her profile of the two, but I can see why both are at the top of the market, being Willie's, and chosen for chasing last year.

She could be one that I will look to back in roll-ups from the flat, in the next couple of months.

[taylorch1990]

Another one he sent chasing was Cut The Mustard, was beaten by Elimay but her form still stacks up closely to Salsaretta. Fell lto when challenging Zero Ten. Being owned by Jared Sullivan I'd have assumed she'd have gone to Paul Nicholls but she's not listed as in training with him. Not listed in the betting for this either but I'll be keeping an eye out as if she gets introduced at bigger than 25s I'd probably have a small bit on.

[Saxon Warrior]

Another one he sent chasing was Cut The Mustard, was beaten by Elimay but her form still stacks up closely to Salsaretta. Fell lto when challenging Zero Ten. Being owned by Jared Sullivan I'd have assumed she'd have gone to Paul Nicholls but she's not listed as in training with him. Not listed in the betting for this either but I'll be keeping an eye out as if she gets introduced at bigger than 25s I'd probably have a small bit on.

Yes Cut The Mustard is a couple of years older than Elimay and Salsaretta at 8yo, and was thumped by Elimay in the Grade 2 by 9 lengths and 3lbs, and has a rating of 137 at the moment.
Five chase runs, 2 seconds, two wins and chasing down Zero Ten in a Grade 3 on her last run, when falling at the last.
She definitely has an improving profile.

[hardheld]

Although Elfile will be a novice, I think connections will want to be represented in this race and this will Be her target.

She Really improved from run to run Last season, and will hopefully improve further for a fence. Love her attitude and how she stayed on after the last at cheltenham. Her form behind honeysuckle is very strong and at the moment she catches the eye at 12s and will take a punt with her ability over expierence

[Lobos]

Although Elfile will be a novice, I think connections will want to be represented in this race and this will Be her target.

She Really improved from run to run Last season, and will hopefully improve further for a fence. Love her attitude and how she stayed on after the last at cheltenham. Her form behind honeysuckle is very strong and at the moment she catches the eye at 12s and will take a punt with her ability over expierence

I'm not mad keen on Elfile due to her inexperience. I'd imagine there will be lots in this race with a few years chasing behind them which can only be a positive. Any novice winning this will have to be very good.

[Istabraq]

It’s fascinating this race has produced so much discussion before race conditions are announced.
As it stands we are unaware of any penalties that might be allocated to horses that have won a G1, similarly there may well be age allowances, until these are known surely it’s hard to have a strong view ?
Any 4/5yo maiden (or even novice) could find herself getting 20lb from the big guns, as such it’s not impossible the winner is a 3/4yo hurdler currently chewing grass in a French field, and when everyone knows full race conditions JP or Munir/Suede or even Rich Ricci may well buy a couple with this race specifically in mind...

[archie]

I'd be surprised if race conditions gave more than a 7lb weight variation. Probably a standard weight plus a penalty for Class 1 wins. Definitely no 4yos and you'd like to think that there would be a minimum OR.

[Istabraq]

I don’t disagree archie, 4yo chasers are hardly encouraged in UK/Ireland and far more likely to stay in France.
I took a look at the G2 mares novice hurdle conditions earlier and with age and penalties there was around a stone between top and bottom, that weight difference isn’t impossible tor this race but right now we’re all guessing...

[archie]

Probably better to look at the early Mares Hurdles. As far as I can see, apart from 4yos (who won't be admitted here), it was 11st basic with 3 or 5lb penalties.

First time up they will be encouraging the best quality field possible.

Agree though, just guessing.