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EDITED..... Race Conditions
Couldnt see a thread for this anywhere, so lets get started. Love it or hate it this race is coming so we may aswell try and find the winner.... (im joking, nobody loves it)
Grade 2 over about 2miles 4 furlongs
No other details have been announced yet, so we cant get too stuck into this, these are the current market leaders -
Salsaretta - best price 7/1
7y/o trained by Willie Mullins, owned by the Riccis
Has run 4 times over fences, winning all 4. Altho going off at 8/11 1/5 and 2/5 its fair to say she hasn't beaten much. Officially rated 148, with a best rpr of 150. She's clearly talented and done everything asked of her, plus you would think that this is the race she'll be aimed at, so has alot of positives. Her price is nothing to get excited about tho.
Honeysuckle - best price 8/1
Rated 158, best RPR of 160, but is sticking to hurdles so lets move on...
Put the kettle On - best price 10/1
6y/o trained by henry de bromhead. Has run 6 times over fences, winning 5, including the arkle. Official rating of 155, top rpr of 159. Surely too good to run in a grade 2? Things would have to go badly wrong for her to end up here i feel. Not one to be interested in at 10/1 at this stage
Elimay - best price 12/1
6y/o trained by Willie Mullins owned by JP, official rating 147, top rpr of 148. 2 runs, 2 wins over fences. Her form of her grade 2 win at Thurles is arguably as good as anything Salsaretta has achieved, and a year younger so mayeb has slightly more improvement to come?
Elfile - best price 12/1
6y/o trained by Willie Mullins owned by Ken Alexander. Has never run over fences so a big unknown there. Chased home Honeysuckle and Benie in the mares hurdle beaten 6.5 lengths, which is obviously very solid form. Officially rated 151, top rpr of 149, would put her right in the picture if she goes here, and if she can jump a fence.
Benie des Dieux - best price 14/1
The fact she's best price 14/1 with paddy power says it all. She's not running here. Far too good for a grade 2, move on.
Lady Buttons - best price 20/1
10y/o trained by Philip Kirby. Well held by Elfile on hurdle form, plus she's getting on abit. But her chase form is actually pretty decent, OR of 150, top RPR of 158. Beat Happy Diva in a Doncaster Listed race, which is nothing to get too excited about. Overall shes pretty exposed, if she wins it'll be disappointing.
Happy Diva - best price 20/1
9y/o trained by Kerry Lee, official rating of 153, top rpr of 154. 19 runs over fences 5 wins, an exposed sort but the 2nd to Simply the Betts in the Brown Advisory is solid festival form. In fact her last four runs at cheltenham reads 2122. Rated 153 her highest ever rating, at 9 years old you wouldnt think there would be much improvement left in her. Would they be tempted to get her dropped and try and target a handicap again?
If you think the Mares chase is going to follow the same pattern as the mares hurdle, then there's only one real starting point, back the Mullins runners. With the limited information we currently have, i would be tempted by Elimay at 12s, and Happy Diva even tho beaten by Lady buttons at Doncaster, she seems to improve when at cheltenham, so maybe a small each way on her
Couldnt see a thread for this anywhere, so lets get started. Love it or hate it this race is coming so we may aswell try and find the winner.... (im joking, nobody loves it)
Grade 2 over about 2miles 4 furlongs
No other details have been announced yet, so we cant get too stuck into this, these are the current market leaders -
Salsaretta - best price 7/1
7y/o trained by Willie Mullins, owned by the Riccis
Has run 4 times over fences, winning all 4. Altho going off at 8/11 1/5 and 2/5 its fair to say she hasn't beaten much. Officially rated 148, with a best rpr of 150. She's clearly talented and done everything asked of her, plus you would think that this is the race she'll be aimed at, so has alot of positives. Her price is nothing to get excited about tho.
Honeysuckle - best price 8/1
Rated 158, best RPR of 160, but is sticking to hurdles so lets move on...
Put the kettle On - best price 10/1
6y/o trained by henry de bromhead. Has run 6 times over fences, winning 5, including the arkle. Official rating of 155, top rpr of 159. Surely too good to run in a grade 2? Things would have to go badly wrong for her to end up here i feel. Not one to be interested in at 10/1 at this stage
Elimay - best price 12/1
6y/o trained by Willie Mullins owned by JP, official rating 147, top rpr of 148. 2 runs, 2 wins over fences. Her form of her grade 2 win at Thurles is arguably as good as anything Salsaretta has achieved, and a year younger so mayeb has slightly more improvement to come?
Elfile - best price 12/1
6y/o trained by Willie Mullins owned by Ken Alexander. Has never run over fences so a big unknown there. Chased home Honeysuckle and Benie in the mares hurdle beaten 6.5 lengths, which is obviously very solid form. Officially rated 151, top rpr of 149, would put her right in the picture if she goes here, and if she can jump a fence.
Benie des Dieux - best price 14/1
The fact she's best price 14/1 with paddy power says it all. She's not running here. Far too good for a grade 2, move on.
Lady Buttons - best price 20/1
10y/o trained by Philip Kirby. Well held by Elfile on hurdle form, plus she's getting on abit. But her chase form is actually pretty decent, OR of 150, top RPR of 158. Beat Happy Diva in a Doncaster Listed race, which is nothing to get too excited about. Overall shes pretty exposed, if she wins it'll be disappointing.
Happy Diva - best price 20/1
9y/o trained by Kerry Lee, official rating of 153, top rpr of 154. 19 runs over fences 5 wins, an exposed sort but the 2nd to Simply the Betts in the Brown Advisory is solid festival form. In fact her last four runs at cheltenham reads 2122. Rated 153 her highest ever rating, at 9 years old you wouldnt think there would be much improvement left in her. Would they be tempted to get her dropped and try and target a handicap again?
If you think the Mares chase is going to follow the same pattern as the mares hurdle, then there's only one real starting point, back the Mullins runners. With the limited information we currently have, i would be tempted by Elimay at 12s, and Happy Diva even tho beaten by Lady buttons at Doncaster, she seems to improve when at cheltenham, so maybe a small each way on her
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