Champion Hurdle 2021

[Lobos]

Honeysuckle participation in Churdle will pretty much be assured if she wins ICH as per connections.

[Kevloaf]

I've spent the last 10 months being strongly against Goshen for this race. His early Ante-post price was a big no-no for me and then the Moore's decided to run the horse over flats - terrible campaign!

However, I did call out a few scenarios where I'd backed Goshen. It's been interesting to dig these out and it appears these scenarios have materialised (weirdly)

1) Goshen is currently out to 16/1 NRNB, 25/1 without
2) Connections unable to run him, terrible prep but that's factored into his current price. However, he's been likely raced unlike some of the previous juveniles that struggled during the first year in open company
3) The Moores this "all or nothing" / "might aswell just chuck him in" / "less pressure now" situation. Stick him in the race, and just do what this horse does best - go off hard at the front - all or nothing

On top of this....

4) He had an excuse for the poor run in the International - fibrillating heart... same reason given for Paisley Park's defeat in March, PP has since come back and put all that behind him. Could Goshen?
5) My 'going' bias is pointing strongly towards a soft-heavy festival, and I can see a situation where the Moores just go for broke with this horse with a "jump out in front and just go hard". This horse has underperformed this season, expectations are broken, its time for a nothing to lose approach here
6) Four months ago I was expected so much more from the projected entries but ended up with Epatante's shock defeat and questions marks over her back, Sharjah turning out to be a horse needing a race to run 100% to how he likes it, Honeysuckle just about beating a bunch of 3 milers at Fairyhouse, Abacadabra showing how little scope he has left, and then a bunch of horses who have managed to scrap a win or two in a open division.

So yeah, I was expected one or two to really take hold of this race by now.. but I'm left with more questions than answers

As a result, I'm going to add Goshen 1pt on 16/1 NRNB and 1pt on 25/1.

If he wins his little prep race, then he'll be halved
If he loses his little prep race, depending on how far, then they may just give up the dream and I get some credits back
If he's unable to get a prep race in, then it sounds like the Moores will go straight there


Oh go, what have I done! lol

I'm drawn back to the comment you made when you decided about posting more after reading this

[Nortons who]

opatcho

At least you have provided a glimmer of hope to the Goshen Fan Club on here, maybe until Saturday or possibly longer.

There are 2 things that many Forumites thought could happen this year by way of equine redemption for 2020. Both seem unlikely now but Goshen and Column of Fire will thank you for your enthusiasm. Maybe both can yet rise from the ashes.

I realise you didn't mention CoF at all but they come as a package, buy one get one free.

Seriously, have you really backed Goshen now with hard non refundable cash? Top person.

[Craigy14]

Looks like he won’t get that prep this weekend as Sandown is chase only, hurdles races abandoned.

[opatcho]

opatcho

Seriously, have you really backed Goshen now with hard non refundable cash? Top person.

Yup, 1 pt at 25/1
Via B365 with Cashout available

I think Goshen is at a back-able price and I’m comfortable with the risk.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yes a risk, but they all have their prices to take a risk. One thing we do know, Goshen is a darn good horse on his day.if he has his day in March 25 is massive... ...IF !!!

[Eggs]

...just 6 declared for the ICH, doesn’t look like the ‘win DRF/Festival’ market has been adjusted if you fancy one to win both.

[charlie]

...just 6 declared for the ICH, doesn’t look like the ‘win DRF/Festival’ market has been adjusted if you fancy one to win both.

That is a proper little race and significantly better than last years IMO.

[charlie]

Honeysuckle participation in Churdle will pretty much be assured if she wins ICH as per connections.

Certainly looks that way. Glad you wore me down into taking that 20/1 ICH & CH double

I don't think she'll win though, nor do I think its a particularly outlandish claim, she'll lose eventually and didn't really impress on debut, and only just won a much weaker renewal of the ICH last year.

She'll be in against some proper 2 milers here and I think she'll jump too big and get done for speed.

[Eggs]

....Hills ICH/CH:

Honeysuckle 14-1 (6-1 & Mares H): & Concertista MH 33-1
Sharja 20-1
Abacadabras 40-1
Saint Roi 40-1
Saldier 66-1

[Scooby91]

....Hills ICH/CH:

Honeysuckle 14-1 (6-1 & Mares H): & Concertista MH 33-1
Sharja 20-1
Abacadabras 40-1
Saint Roi 40-1
Saldier 66-1

Honeysuckle to get beat and win the mares would be an interesting one imo.

[Eggs]

...Sky

Saldier 33-1 (16-1 place in both, it does state 3 places)
Sharjah 16-1
Honeysuckle 14-1 (CH or MH 6-1)
Saint Roi 40-1
Aba 40-1

PP have taken their CH offers down.

[Lobos]

Honeysuckle to get beat and win the mares would be an interesting one imo.

Yep, that would be interesting pricing up.

[Lobos]

...Sky

Saldier 33-1 (16-1 place in both, it does state 3 places)
Sharjah 16-1
Honeysuckle 14-1 (CH or MH 6-1)
Saint Roi 40-1
Aba 40-1

PP have taken their CH offers down.

40/1 just looks wrong re Saint Roi. Mullins clearly has great faith in him and he's not a bad judge.

[Quevega]

40/1 just looks wrong re Saint Roi. Mullins clearly has great faith in him and he's not a bad judge.

Not that good a price is it ?

He's 13/2 to win Saturday as it stands.
If he does win, and unlikely to batter them is he ?
What price does he go ?
4-1 would be the lowest, and 5 or 6 to 1 more likely IMO.