Champion Hurdle 2021

[Faugheen_Machine]

Entered in the Contenders hurdle this Saturday Kevloaf

[Kevloaf]

Thanks all.

I've decided to back him and will consider what to do nearer the times of those trials with specials perhaps.

I like Silver Streak as an each way bet (not at the prices now as much) but that means Song For Someone has to be considered too.... but I will have the whole field backed in this race so don't mind me

[ComplyOrDie]

Entered in the Contenders hurdle this Saturday Kevloaf

He'll be just a 'has been contender' once Goshen takes his scalp then

[Faugheen_Machine]

He'll be just a 'has been contender' once Goshen takes his scalp then

Exactly CoD.

In reality, I'll be adding all my Goshen bets to the scrap heap Saturday evening

[Aldie1988]

Just to let you know on the above subject, the hurdles course is waterlogged and they may be changing to an all chase card Saturday

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/sandown-looks-at-cotswold-chase-for-all-chase-saturday-card-in-weekend-shake-up/471078

[Lobos]

Honeysuckle into 5/4 for ICH. Following decs maybe?

[archie]

Honeysuckle into 5/4 for ICH. Following decs maybe?

Forfeits and supplementary entries by noon tomorrow.

[Quevega]

Opatcho mentioned his theory on Sharjah's inconsistent runs on another thread.

I've mentioned the way races are run and how this can affect the results previously.

But to demonstrate this in actual figures I'll give it a go.


They reckon a second in time is approx 4-5 lengths in a NH hurdle race, varying on the ground and speed the horses are going of course.

To cover 200 yards in 14 seconds a horse would need to be travelling at 29.2mph.
To cover 200 yards in 13 seconds a horse would need to be travelling at 31.5mph.
To cover 200 yards in 12 seconds a horse would need to be travelling at 34.1mph

2.5 mph doesn't seem a lot.
But it's massive at the end of a race, depending on the ability of the horse and how efficiently they've ran up till that point.
But if the horses up with the pace have not run efficiently it can make a massive difference to the result.
Especially with horses of very similar ability.

For example if you've ran the first mile and a half at an average speed of 35mph, you're likely not going to be able to sustain that and the likelihood is that your speed in the finish could drop to a lot lower, which would make the finishers who've conserved energy by going a more sensible average speed up until then, look a lot faster in the finish, even though they may have only been going a fraction slower than the pace setter.

The average kind of speed depending on ground and course seems to vary from around 29mph to 33mph for a 2m hurdle race at the graded sort of level.

Some horses may have a top-speed of 38-40mph but obviously cannot sustain this over a trip, or produce it after going a decent speed for most of the race.
I think the super fast flat horses get near to 43mph over a couple of furlongs.

Whereas some horse's may have a lower top-speed but can sustain this for a lot longer. Stamina.

So the horse that can get up to 38-40mph, may not be able to go at a steady 33mph for a full 2 miles.

A load of bollocks I know
But it's of massive importance to the result of a race when the competitors or so closely matched.
The jockey's judgement of pace and conserving and using energy efficiently is paramount, as is economical jumping without energy sapping errors.

The vast majority of the time when a horse looks like he's finishing fast in a NH race over 2 miles plus, he's probably going no faster than at any time during the race, it's just that the others are slowing down. And when they've gone far too fast early and have not got the class and stamina to sustain it then they will fall back.

And if you allow a horse of sufficient ability to set a good solid average pace, it can be very difficult to speed up sufficiently near the end of the race to make up the ground, as suddenly asking a horse to go 4-5 mph quicker on soft ground after 1.8 miles of a race, to make up 8 lengths or so, is tough even for the best of animals.

[Outlaw]

Not sure i'd call it bollox Quevega but you've certainly made me want a waffle for breakfast
Joking aside do you do much punting in running? sounds like you try to eek out the tactics enough to do so.

[opatcho]

Nice summary there Quevega


Great example of this was the year that Ruby ran on Getabird from the front in the supreme over testing ground, the horse paid the price and Summerville Boy was able to pick up the pieces after running further down the pack. Ruby comes back out for the Arkle and changes tactics on Footpad, allowing the two nut jobs to kill them selves up front whilst he sets an efficient route around knowing how testing it is after the first race

Getabird - Led, finished down the pack
Good-bodied; looked well; raced keenly, led 1st, headed after 3 out, went right next, soon weakened, eased before last (jockey said gelding ran too freely) (op 2/1)

Footpad - Ran behind the pace, won
Raced in 3rd place, chased clear leaders approaching 5th, blundered 6th, headway before 4 out, went 2nd before 3 out where upsides, led on bend before 2 out, drew clear from last, stayed on strongly and well in command after

Benie - Ran behind the pace, won
In touch, in last pair 6th, headway 3 out, driven to chase leading trio after 2 out, went 3rd at the last, drifted left when challenging run-in, led final 120yds, stayed on, driven right out (op 4/1)

Faugheen - Led, finished down the pack
Felt Ruby just had to go out in front with him and try and outstay them all given Faugheen was 10, ended up paying the price

Led, headed after 1st, raced in 2nd place, mistake 4th, led after 3 out, leant on rival soon after, headed just before 2 out, ridden and weakened between last 2 (trainer said gelding now appears to need further than two miles) (op 5/1)


80-90% of the time if pays to be at the front, especially on the sharper old course. However, I think there's some opportunity when its testing to allow the race to unfold a bit and seeing whether it pans out to be ran at a mad pace.

For me, I'll be on the exhanges whilst and looking to back Sharjah in the Champion hurdle and Altior in the Champion Chase if the pace is extremely strong during the early part of the race.
I'm so keen on Altior its unreal, you'll have the likes of Allmankind and Chacun setting the pace up front - the later appears to have a minor weakness with appearing to slow down towards the end of his races, and he's yet to tackle that cheltenham hill. Altior will enjoy the front pair going off hard, and I'm certain you'll get some decent prices on the exchanges for Altior - especially with Nico's riding style. I think this could be an opportunity to get a fairly big price on Altior, that IF the race is ran hard and we're looking at soft or worse ground

Sharjah the same.

I have also threw this question to myself. Why did Epantate blow up in the mares, I thought it was the course but rule this out and back her last year for the CH, I thought it was some dodgy flu jab, then I thought it was the first time headgear. More recently, especially after her decent at Kempton, I know wonder if it was the pace of the race that got her. Yeah, I know she was stroppy as hell going into the race and the yard believe her back was the problem, but still.... she's flopped in the only two races where the pace was really strong. The pace of last years CH was behind the supreme novices. I just wonder whether strong pace is a negative for her

Anyway, another long ass thread

[opatcho]

Opatcho mentioned his theory on Sharjah's inconsistent runs on another thread.

But it's of massive importance to the result of a race when the competitors or so closely matched.
The jockey's judgement of pace and conserving and using energy efficiently is paramount, as is economical jumping without energy sapping errors.

You see this in the results, the top jockeys are able to get this right. You could argue the top jockeys are on the best horses, but I think top jockeys are able to judge the pace of the race and position their horse in the right place to win.
Ruby's insights regarding pace and tactics (talks about it on Road To Cheltenham) are so useful and an interesting dynamic which some may ignore or not include in their analysis.

[Pendil]

Thought Allmankind was going Arkle?

[Middle_Of_March]

Edit - Wrong thread

[Quevega]

Not sure i'd call it bollox Quevega but you've certainly made me want a waffle for breakfast
Joking aside do you do much punting in running? sounds like you try to eek out the tactics enough to do so.

Waffle a better description of Bollox
And a lot tastier I'm sure.

Not really, as I'm not confident of the technology and speed of the TV I'm watching.
I have done it on a few occasions, but rarely.
If I was into US racing and the feed was within a nano second of real time I'd be tempted. But I'm not and it's not.

[opatcho]

As much as I dislike Goshen, I'm in the same boat LOL... hope he becomes a forgotten horse, drifts right out to 16/1 - 20/1's. Real testing conditions on the day, jockey has nothing to loose, goes full out and none of them can reel him in

Two months on, and I still believe

1) Moore's have messed up his prep
2) There best bet is to hold onto him, bring him out in Jan for a prep, and then head to the CH with the aim of taking them on a mile out and seeing what the rest of the field has over proper testing ground

I'm no Goshen fan, no fan at all.... but this is the only situation where Goshen may become backable at 16/1 +++

I've spent the last 10 months being strongly against Goshen for this race. His early Ante-post price was a big no-no for me and then the Moore's decided to run the horse over flats - terrible campaign!

However, I did call out a few scenarios where I'd backed Goshen. It's been interesting to dig these out and it appears these scenarios have materialised (weirdly)

1) Goshen is currently out to 16/1 NRNB, 25/1 without
2) Connections unable to run him, terrible prep but that's factored into his current price. However, he's been likely raced unlike some of the previous juveniles that struggled during the first year in open company
3) The Moores this "all or nothing" / "might aswell just chuck him in" / "less pressure now" situation. Stick him in the race, and just do what this horse does best - go off hard at the front - all or nothing

On top of this....

4) He had an excuse for the poor run in the International - fibrillating heart... same reason given for Paisley Park's defeat in March, PP has since come back and put all that behind him. Could Goshen?
5) My 'going' bias is pointing strongly towards a soft-heavy festival, and I can see a situation where the Moores just go for broke with this horse with a "jump out in front and just go hard". This horse has underperformed this season, expectations are broken, its time for a nothing to lose approach here
6) Four months ago I was expected so much more from the projected entries but ended up with Epatante's shock defeat and questions marks over her back, Sharjah turning out to be a horse needing a race to run 100% to how he likes it, Honeysuckle just about beating a bunch of 3 milers at Fairyhouse, Abacadabra showing how little scope he has left, and then a bunch of horses who have managed to scrap a win or two in a open division.

So yeah, I was expected one or two to really take hold of this race by now.. but I'm left with more questions than answers

As a result, I'm going to add Goshen 1pt on 16/1 NRNB and 1pt on 25/1.

If he wins his little prep race, then he'll be halved
If he loses his little prep race, depending on how far, then they may just give up the dream and I get some credits back
If he's unable to get a prep race in, then it sounds like the Moores will go straight there


Oh go, what have I done! lol