2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle

[Altior]

Unpopular opinion but I wasn't blown away by him. Might be proved wrong but I'd have him comfortably behind Bon bons and Sir Gerhard

[Craigy14]

Unpopular opinion but I wasn't blown away by him. Might be proved wrong but I'd have him comfortably behind Bon bons and Sir Gerhard

I thought he was really good, but I’d question what we’ll learn beating the same horse again who is second fav in the market on Saturday.

Probably not a lot, the market is expecting the same result, but no doubt he’ll go fav for the supreme post race.

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought he was really good, but I’d question what we’ll learn beating the same horse again who is second fav in the market on Saturday.

Probably not a lot, the market is expecting the same result, but no doubt he’ll go fav for the supreme post race.

This is half the battle isn't it. Until Cheltenham, the majority of them just beat the same horses unfortunately. Happens a fair bit during novice hurdle campaigns. Once Cheltenham is over we then have a line on the Irish to British form.

[Craigy14]

This is half the battle isn't it. Until Cheltenham, the majority of them just beat the same horses unfortunately. Happens a fair bit during novice hurdle campaigns. Once Cheltenham is over we then have a line on the Irish to British form.

Yeah very true, not as if Henderson is going to let them do battle against each other which I sort of agree with. Think it was Rooster made the point the other day about getting the sort of definitive answers at Cheltenham, instead of beforehand. Was in reference to WPM then moving targets but I suppose it’s similar with any trainer to be honest.

[Dandrew99]

First I've heard that it was a leg fracture, I've had a Google and can't find the interview.

Upon further googling I still haven't found this bloody interview... if anybody has any ideas then please let me know as it's driving me low key insane

(Willie talking about the State Man injury)

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah very true, not as if Henderson is going to let them do battle against each other which I sort of agree with. Think it was Rooster made the point the other day about getting the sort of definitive answers at Cheltenham, instead of beforehand. Was in reference to WPM then moving targets but I suppose it’s similar with any trainer to be honest.

Yes, much better to have as many unknowns as possible for the festival imo.
Has to be a dream scenario for this kind of forum I would have thought.

[PresentingPercy]

Upon further googling I still haven't found this bloody interview... if anybody has any ideas then please let me know as it's driving me low key insane

(Willie talking about the State Man injury)

Cannot find the interview myself but if memory serves me correct Willie did say State Man picked up a fracture from a horse standing on him when he fell, and in the same sentence said SWIW fractured her nose from her fall. I believe both suffered the same injury.

[Quevega]

Just posted in my diary.

If Constitution wins as expected on Saturday then Henderson is looking like having jt favs at approx 5/2 the pair.
This works out at odds on combined.
If one were to stpe aside or miss the race the other would be 6/4 at best.
And both would become Ballymore favourite if he suggested either may or were to go there.
They simply have to discuss the option.

I know he's done it before, and I know they have different jockeys but it's still something you'd discuss at least.
especially if nothing emerges post Dublin.

Got to be tempting to try and win 2 races, and got to be tempting to an owner to avoid a really good horse and go for a weaker race.
And both look more than capable of winning either race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

This is half the battle isn't it. Until Cheltenham, the majority of them just beat the same horses unfortunately. Happens a fair bit during novice hurdle campaigns. Once Cheltenham is over we then have a line on the Irish to British form.

Yep, it’s one of the main things in the build up,trying to figure races out without knowing too much re the difference between Irish and British form . Well is for me anyway .
Its great to back up gut feeling through watching horses with a winner, not so great with the losers though!!
But that’s one of the main reasons I love the festival.

[Zachx02]

Just posted in my diary.

If Constitution wins as expected on Saturday then Henderson is looking like having jt favs at approx 5/2 the pair.
This works out at odds on combined.
If one were to stpe aside or miss the race the other would be 6/4 at best.
And both would become Ballymore favourite if he suggested either may or were to go there.
They simply have to discuss the option.

I know he's done it before, and I know they have different jockeys but it's still something you'd discuss at least.
especially if nothing emerges post Dublin.

Got to be tempting to try and win 2 races, and got to be tempting to an owner to avoid a really good horse and go for a weaker race.
And both look more than capable of winning either race.

The ballymore point has to be taken serious in my opinion, right now that race is wide open with no real market leader if one did go to the ballymore I would say it would be Constitution Hill going off of his single run so far but the Tolworth will tell us more this weekend

[Quevega]

The ballymore point has to be taken serious in my opinion, right now that race is wide open with no real market leader if one did go to the ballymore I would say it would be Constitution Hill going off of his single run so far but the Tolworth will tell us more this weekend

There is a chance that Jonbon runs in the 2m 3f race shishkin ran in.
He hasn't many options.
This would further cloud the issue.
But JP would be in charge of this decision I reckon.
So yes, CH would be the most likely, and they could use his 2 sandown wins as evidence of staying, especially if it's heavy saturday.

[Dandrew99]

Cannot find the interview myself but if memory serves me correct Willie did say State Man picked up a fracture from a horse standing on him when he fell, and in the same sentence said SWIW fractured her nose from her fall. I believe both suffered the same injury.

Enough of you guys have said it for me to believe he definitely said he fractured something, but I've watched the race back and he actually finishes the race so it would seem unlikely to me that it was a leg fracture (racing TV replay, around 4m20 in you can see him running past the camera with his ears pricked)

Would just like some news to be honest. You'd assume that they've had someone check him out by now?!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Just posted in my diary.

If Constitution wins as expected on Saturday then Henderson is looking like having jt favs at approx 5/2 the pair.
This works out at odds on combined.
If one were to stpe aside or miss the race the other would be 6/4 at best.
And both would become Ballymore favourite if he suggested either may or were to go there.
They simply have to discuss the option.

I know he's done it before, and I know they have different jockeys but it's still something you'd discuss at least.
especially if nothing emerges post Dublin.

Got to be tempting to try and win 2 races, and got to be tempting to an owner to avoid a really good horse and go for a weaker race.
And both look more than capable of winning either race.

See what you are saying and for some trainers and owners it may well happen. With Hendo though I’m not sure that the winning of both races applies so much,
If he thinks both should be in the Supreme cos it’s right for the horses, I don’t think one of the owners will go against that.
It is something I thought about I must admit, just don’t think it will happen.

[charlie]

Just posted in my diary.

If Constitution wins as expected on Saturday then Henderson is looking like having jt favs at approx 5/2 the pair.
This works out at odds on combined.
If one were to stpe aside or miss the race the other would be 6/4 at best.
And both would become Ballymore favourite if he suggested either may or were to go there.
They simply have to discuss the option.

I know he's done it before, and I know they have different jockeys but it's still something you'd discuss at least.
especially if nothing emerges post Dublin.

Got to be tempting to try and win 2 races, and got to be tempting to an owner to avoid a really good horse and go for a weaker race.
And both look more than capable of winning either race.

It would 100% make sense to discuss, but I don't think they will, at least not publicly to a point where markets move. I think Nicky has too much previous sending more than one strong contender here and with completely different connections I think he'll view the Supreme as 2 against the field, get one on the board early and that's that for team on the downgrade, anything after is a bonus. I agree that it would make sense, the Ballymore is just not a race Nicky targets or mentions much. I know Champ obviously got done and Vyta D'Roc was quite short, but most his runners in the Ballymore were 20/1+ with quite a few at 50's. Conversely, he's runs far more in the Supreme clashing Shishkin into Chantry, Angels Breath into Mister Fisher, Altior into Buveur D'air and so on. Any other trainer and you'd be barking up the right tree, I just think Nicky wants one early and he always talks about that after winning the Supreme, so I think both with go here, but, if you're right, you'll be laughing, or barking, one or the other

[Spectre]

There is a chance that Jonbon runs in the 2m 3f race shishkin ran in.
He hasn't many options.
This would further cloud the issue.
But JP would be in charge of this decision I reckon.
So yes, CH would be the most likely, and they could use his 2 sandown wins as evidence of staying, especially if it's heavy saturday.

There is, but I think it's more likely Jonbon runs in the Betfair Hurdle. JP has ghosts to rest with the Betfair Hurdle/Supreme double, and they asked for a handicap mark after two runs for a reason you'd think.

If either were to go up in trip I suspect it would be Constitution Hill, but I'm with others that just think both will run in the Supreme.

The play I'd suggest on the doubles would be nrnb so you have the two of them both ways round, and if/when they don't run in the Ballymore it just reverts to topping up your two singles in the Supreme.