2022 Novice Chase Division

[charlie]

Don’t have much of an opinion on him to be honest. Gordon’s past NHC winners conform to ridiculously strong trends that are almost too good to be true. Run wild fred ticks pretty much every box, I can see the appeal for TBO and have placed a wager on him too, but personally I’ll be bitterly disappointed if RWF is not the one.

Run Wild Fred has no Festival experience. Ravenhill was an anomaly, but the rest of Gordon's NHC winners had significant festival experience, which to me is one of the important things when heading to Cheltenham.

[ToniC]

I'd start managing your expectations now then because MOL can pull him whenever he wants in favour of the Irish National. Loads of us were on at big prices for the Kim Muir which he looked absolutely perfect for, then they decided not to go with him. Zero surprise if it happens again.

Including myself lol. 2 big differences this year tho; a) he won’t be as well handicapped for the national and b) there’s about a month between Cheltenham and fairyhouse next year instead of only a couple of weeks

[Odin]

Run Wild Fred has no Festival experience. Ravenhill was an anomaly, but the rest of Gordon's NHC winners had significant festival experience, which to me is one of the important things when heading to Cheltenham.

It's a fair point, but you could argue that wherever Gordon sends any of his horses this year will be an anomaly of sorts due to A) the summer ban, and B) the horses he has lost, both through Gigginstown winding down and last springs events, reducing his options slightly.

That said, if RWF doesn't go to either of the novice chases this winter at Cheltenham, I'll be taking advantage of a number of my cashout options (assuming they are still there!)

[ToniC]

Run Wild Fred has no Festival experience. Ravenhill was an anomaly, but the rest of Gordon's NHC winners had significant festival experience, which to me is one of the important things when heading to Cheltenham.

There are other factors for me. Festival experience before is obviously a pro, but Chicago grey was poor & finished nearly last in the coral cup. To me, when looking at this race, I value a prior in a big field competitive handicap chase, prior experience of the Cheltenham Chase course (not necessarily from the festival), at least a few completed runs in staying chases (Galvin bucked this with only 1) and a lot (for a novice) of prior Chase experience, preferably 6 runs or more.

It’s very hard to throw stones at RWF for me, get a run around the course into him this autumn then put him away for winter, even if he lacks festival experience the positives he has going for him would put him comfortable fav in a typical field for this race IMO.

[charlie]

Whoever started the "big betting plunge" on The Bosses Oscar may not have expected the result yesterday.

Definitely worth sticking with.

A bit of cut in the ground will help, and a run in October, to keep experience levels up.

Oh, and of course, he needs to finish placed in a 2M7F chase too, or he doesn't qualify for the NHC.

I put him in my diary at 33/1 a week or so ago, but the price move was defo (not me ) the entry plus his Cheltenham experience plus being trained by a bloke thats dominated the NHC in the last 10 years. On paper he should be Gordons NHC horse - ticks loads of boxes and Gordon, unlike RWF, will get to campaign TBO as he sees fit.

A lot of people were unimpressed yesterday - I thought he was fine, without being anywhere near terrible or anywhere near brilliant. It was a meh performance, but I'm fine with that first time up for a novice potentially going for the NHC (pretty confident I can rule out RSA). I'm inclined to stick with him, less so because I don't have cash out () but more so because I think we generally expect far too much at this time of year, and it was his first run in ages on good ground over 2m6f. He's entitled to come on chunks for that.

Gordon has done really well in the NHC and perhaps Galvin's recent string of 1's have distorted history, but most of his have disappointed before going on to win the NHC. Chicago Grey lost 29L on debut and ran 5 more times between now and the Festival, yet people are discussing whether or not TBO will qualify - it's mid September ffs!! 6 months to go with lots of racing to be done.

[charlie]

There are other factors for me. Festival experience before is obviously a pro, but Chicago grey was poor & finished nearly last in the coral cup. To me, when looking at this race, I value a prior in a big field competitive handicap chase, prior experience of the Cheltenham Chase course (not necessarily from the festival), at least a few completed runs in staying chases (Galvin bucked this with only 1) and a lot (for a novice) of prior Chase experience, preferably 6 runs or more.

It's very hard to throw stones at RWF for me, get a run around the course into him this autumn then put him away for winter, even if he lacks festival experience the positives he has going for him would put him comfortable fav in a typical field for this race IMO.

Forget stones, RWF has two boulders you can level at him. The first is his will to win - I don't think thats unfair given his results, but at the same time fully concede he's been campaigned 'tactfully' by Gordon to conceal ability, so maybe that boulder is flawed. The big issue and the elephant in the room is his owner. RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National. I've covered RWF TWAR mostly due to FOMO and due to being pig sick if he won and I wasn't on, but he won 76k finishing second at Fairyhouse and nearly won 210k. Why, when the owner has shown clear historical preference for the Irish National, would MOL suddenly decide to up sticks and go for a 50 grand Grade 2 at Cheltenham? I expect him to repeat the same antics next year as he did this year.

[Spectre]

We also have to consider the possibility that Run Wild Fred isn't as good as we think he is. Before everyone jumps on me, I'm as invested as anyone, but whilst his form is decent it's not by any stretch of the imagination outstanding.

He couldn't win the Irish National with what looked like a 'chucked in' 140. The winner was a 20 chase,130 something horse and he gave 3 pounds who has been turned over twice since off his revised mark, and the third's best winning OR was 127 and he was giving him a pound.

We also have to consider that he's now had 7 chases and he's still to get his head in front. Those chases are full of the right kind of form, and putting it all together probably makes him a mid to high 140's horse. That can be corroborated using RPR's too. 7 of his last 9 races were within 9lbs of each other, between 142 and 151, with 6 of those 7 between a very consistent 145-141, a mere 6lbs. That said experience is also a benefit in the race and is worth a few pounds

That experience though is negated in my mind because he hasn't been over the Cheltenham and has no course experience. Sure they have time to fix that, but if they don't enter him at the October meeting I'd be worried that this isn't the target.

It's fair to assume there is the potential for more improvement. But as a direct stable and race comparison, Galvin put up a 159 RPR in a Cheltenham novice chase prior to landing this, and even getting that on the board he only beat the second and third in the NH Chase a length each, which is a benchmark for the level required. We need to see Run wild Fred put up a similar performance or we can't be sure he's in the range required to win the race.

So two things for me he has to prove and I will be looking out for. That all important early season Cheltenham Chase entry, and a RPR that up in the high 150's. If he doesn't do both of these things I'll be ditching him.

[Istabraq]

RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National.

Was the issue not about travel restrictions for connections ? And of course in O’Leary you’re dealing with irrational attention seeking most of the time so who knows, could be in protest that the BHA banned Elliott from bringing horses over before their Irish counterparts had concluded their investigation.
I could be wrong…

[PresentingPercy]

Forget stones, RWF has two boulders you can level at him. The first is his will to win - I don't think thats unfair given his results, but at the same time fully concede he's been campaigned 'tactfully' by Gordon to conceal ability, so maybe that boulder is flawed. The big issue and the elephant in the room is his owner. RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National. I've covered RWF TWAR mostly due to FOMO and due to being pig sick if he won and I wasn't on, but he won 76k finishing second at Fairyhouse and nearly won 210k. Why, when the owner has shown clear historical preference for the Irish National, would MOL suddenly decide to up sticks and go for a 50 grand Grade 2 at Cheltenham? I expect him to repeat the same antics next year as he did this year.

Agree with a lot of what you said, but it's worth noting Fairyhouse Easter festival is 4 weeks after Chelt on 2022, it was only 2 weeks after the festival this year so gave little or no time for recovery for distance runners, hence decision to focus on one

[ToniC]

Forget stones, RWF has two boulders you can level at him. The first is his will to win - I don't think thats unfair given his results, but at the same time fully concede he's been campaigned 'tactfully' by Gordon to conceal ability, so maybe that boulder is flawed. The big issue and the elephant in the room is his owner. RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National. I've covered RWF TWAR mostly due to FOMO and due to being pig sick if he won and I wasn't on, but he won 76k finishing second at Fairyhouse and nearly won 210k. Why, when the owner has shown clear historical preference for the Irish National, would MOL suddenly decide to up sticks and go for a 50 grand Grade 2 at Cheltenham? I expect him to repeat the same antics next year as he did this year.

As you say, the only time he’s probably really tried he came a close second in the national to a total freak winner. As for what the O’Leary’s will do, who knows, it’s a variable that I for one certainly would have no idea how to price into it. Sure he’s only 5lb up now and they could probably get the mark back down to something like it was last year, but who says they won’t go for something like the troytown knowing they don’t have to worry about a handicap mark in March for him if he’s coming here, and I’ve mentioned above why I think the national is less of a major concern this year. Ive bet them both, but at the current prices it would be RWF for me and I wouldn’t have to think too hard about it. TBO has a way to go to set himself up as a candidate for this, but as you point out he’s with the right trainer for it and there is plenty of time between now and the.

[Istabraq]

He couldn't win the Irish National with what looked like a 'chucked in' 140. The winner was a 20 chase,130 something horse and he gave 3 pounds who has been turned over twice since off his revised mark, and the third's best winning OR was 127 and he was giving him a pound.

That all important early season Cheltenham Chase entry.

Wasn’t it all about the ground for the winner ?
I’m sure I remember reading the trainer backing the horse at stupid prices because the ground was going to turn in his favour.

Agree re Cheltenham dec for Oct/Nov.
Not convinced he needs to put an RPR of high 150s, I suspect last seasons renewal was/will prove to be the highest quality renewal in modern history, but yes you’d certainly like to see him get his head in front in the manner of a good horse.
Questions to answer for sure, but I’m a believer…

[Quevega]

Charlie's concern with the O'Leary's moods is valid.
But last season was different for a few reasons.
I'd imagine the brothers would still want their say but probably not as much as in the past, so Gordon might have more sway.
I also think they may run this type of horse in the UK National, and a prestigous prep race like the four miler would be acceptable for all concerned.

[Saxon Warrior]

Forget stones, RWF has two boulders you can level at him. The first is his will to win - I don't think thats unfair given his results, but at the same time fully concede he's been campaigned 'tactfully' by Gordon to conceal ability, so maybe that boulder is flawed. The big issue and the elephant in the room is his owner. RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National. I've covered RWF TWAR mostly due to FOMO and due to being pig sick if he won and I wasn't on, but he won 76k finishing second at Fairyhouse and nearly won 210k. Why, when the owner has shown clear historical preference for the Irish National, would MOL suddenly decide to up sticks and go for a 50 grand Grade 2 at Cheltenham? I expect him to repeat the same antics next year as he did this year.

He could run in both, but his performance anywhere at the Cheltenham Festival will affect his rating and weight for the Irish National.

I dont think he goes to Ireland twice for their National, I think its the pot and prestige of the Grand National that interest them now he will be an 8yo in April.

He ran in Ireland last year because he was a 7yo Novice, and because he wasnt high enough in the weights to take up his Grand National entry.
At 3M6F its a much less attritional race for younger horses than Aintree.
I reckon that was the key reason for the late move from the Kim Muir, as it was too close to the Irish National last season to run in both.

It doesnt matter how they run at Cheltenham Festival for the Grand National weights, as the weights are released before March and there are no penalties for perfomances after the weights are announced.

I think the O'Leary's and Gordon know that very well, and I struggle to see why they wouldnt go to a Grade 2 Novice Chase at the Festival, out of all options there, when they have a decent staying novice, and one that is too high for the Kim Muir this time round, and has to be too high for the Kim Muir to get into the Grand National weights.

Of course, I would love to see him run at Cheltenham in October in the Class 2 Novice Chase over 3 Miles, then I would be happier with the NHC (and Grand National) as a target.

[Lobos]

Forget stones, RWF has two boulders you can level at him. The first is his will to win - I don't think thats unfair given his results, but at the same time fully concede he's been campaigned 'tactfully' by Gordon to conceal ability, so maybe that boulder is flawed. The big issue and the elephant in the room is his owner. RWF was perfect for the Kim Muir last year, and I mean perfect. Lovely prep, low weight that definitely concealed his ability. Instead, they opted for the Irish Grand National. I've covered RWF TWAR mostly due to FOMO and due to being pig sick if he won and I wasn't on, but he won 76k finishing second at Fairyhouse and nearly won 210k. Why, when the owner has shown clear historical preference for the Irish National, would MOL suddenly decide to up sticks and go for a 50 grand Grade 2 at Cheltenham? I expect him to repeat the same antics next year as he did this year.

Entirely in agreement Charlie. For me RWF is one of those perennial losers and I steer well clear of those. I have never looked at him and said NHC. I think he'll be saved for the National like Galvin and we'll not see either of them at Cheltenham.

[FinalFurlong91]

I dont think he was even campaigned "tactfully"

They were trying in both the thyestes and irish national he just made vital mistakes when under pressure and didnt seem overly concerned with winning

In a poor national hunt chase hed have a good chance but if its anything like last years cant see him having the class