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2022 Novice Chase Division

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  • 2022 Novice Chase Division

    All Arkle, Marsh, 3m (ex RSA) and NH Chase discussion

  • #2
    Current Top-Rated TIMEFORM Novice Hurdlers
    160p APPRECIATE IT
    159p BOB OLINGER
    151 GAILLARD DU MESNIL
    150p GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
    149p MY DROGO
    148 WILDE ABOUT OSCAR
    147p VANILLIER
    146p THIRD TIME LUCKI
    146 BLUE LORD
    146 BRAVEMANSGAME
    145+ BEAR GHYLLS
    145 BALLYADAM
    145 MASTER MCSHEE
    143p SHEWEARSITWELL (f)
    142 SOARING GLORY
    142x STONER'S CHOICE
    141p CAPE GENTLEMAN
    141p FLASH COLLONGES
    141 FOR PLEASURE
    140p CALICO
    140p PAY THE PIPER
    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

    Comment


    • #3
      I think the prices on many of the market leaders are too short, a few may seem fair come December but most are shockingly short. The one horse that does look over priced even this far out is James De Berlais. He struggled to keep up in the Champion Hurdle but he was thrown in. He won some big races in France before joining Willie Mullins this season. The plan was always chasing next season and he is one of the highest rated novice hurdlers going chasing next season but will only be 6 in 2022. He’s currently 33/1 for the Arkle & Marsh with B365 and one of the best AP bets I’ve seen for 2022.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
        I think the prices on many of the market leaders are too short, a few may seem fair come December but most are shockingly short. The one horse that does look over priced even this far out is James De Berlais. He struggled to keep up in the Champion Hurdle but he was thrown in. He won some big races in France before joining Willie Mullins this season. The plan was always chasing next season and he is one of the highest rated novice hurdlers going chasing next season but will only be 6 in 2022. He’s currently 33/1 for the Arkle & Marsh with B365 and one of the best AP bets I’ve seen for 2022.
        Munir & Souede also have Blue Lord who could be aimed at the Arkle if going chasing (I thought he’d be a CH contender tbh if staying hurdling) too - James De Berlais then being their runner in the Marsh to split them up maybe?

        Comment


        • #5
          Wilde about oscars rating is an absolute farce

          Comment


          • #6
            My diary doesn’t get much traffic (understandably), but I mentioned James Du Berlais earlier in the week.


            Originally posted by Leman14
            Virgin have very kindly given me TWO 1pt Free Bets as a Birthday Present
            (Not sure if I was supposed to get two, but I'm not complaining!)

            First one has gone on James Du Berlais for the Marsh @ 33/1

            Bought with chasing in mind and ran over intermediate trip in France (IMO Only ran over 2m at Cheltenham as it was either that or the Stayers)
            My GUESS, is that they will put him over fences at the intermediate trip with Appreciate It likely (IMO) staying over 2m.
            IMO he will go Marsh and have backed accordingly (albeit, with Free Bets)

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MadeinJapan View Post

              Munir & Souede also have Blue Lord who could be aimed at the Arkle if going chasing (I thought he’d be a CH contender tbh if staying hurdling) too - James De Berlais then being their runner in the Marsh to split them up maybe?
              Remember WPM ran Blue Lord over 2m4f and if he’d settled would see the distance out no problem imo. Fences may help to do that.

              I’ve chucked a sky freebie on James Du Berlais for the Arkle at the moment.

              Lets be honest though WPM has an absolute abundance of potentially talented novice chasers this season, a couple will stay hurdling of course too.

              Appreciate It
              Blue Lord
              Gaillard Du Mesnil
              Galopin Des Champs
              Haut En Couleours
              Gars En Noir
              James Du Berlais
              Ferny Hollow?

              Not bothered with the ones who will almost certainly be 3m+

              Comment


              • #8
                Appreciate It & Bob Olinger both looked awesome, but are priced up accordingly. With targets uncertain, you'd be a brave man to put them in the book.

                Arkle - Appreciate It @ 7/2, Bob Olinger @ 10/1
                Marsh - Bob Olinger @ 5/1, Appreciate It @ 6/1
                RSA - Appreciate It @ 12/1, Bob Olinger @ 20/1

                I like the idea of Bob Olinger Arkle and Appreciate It Marsh. Ferny Hollow waits in the wings for WPM and I'd say he probably has more natural speed that AI. HDB loves his 2 mile chasers and has always been keen to talk up BO's speed.

                Gaillard Du Mesnil & Galopin Des Champs were to two that really excited me because they were backable at 40's and 33's post Cheltenham, which I took. I think both will have very bright futures

                My Drogo & Bravemansgame are the only two British horses I've backed so far (both RSA).



                Comment


                • #9
                  I like Galopin Des Champs, but my thought heading into Cheltenham was that he will show his best on better ground. He will be running on bottomless ground again all winter and it wouldn't surprise me to see him relatively struggle again and then show his best in Spring. One I'll be waiting to have a bet on as he could run in a number of races.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post
                    I like Galopin Des Champs, but my thought heading into Cheltenham was that he will show his best on better ground. He will be running on bottomless ground again all winter and it wouldn't surprise me to see him relatively struggle again and then show his best in Spring. One I'll be waiting to have a bet on as he could run in a number of races.
                    I would say more the step in trip helped him rather than the ground, the run at Xmas when pulled up early for example wasn’t a ground issue he just wasn’t right that day and ran well vs Appreciate It at the DRF but didn’t have the gears over 2m against him and Ballyadam.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I see some predictions of where the big boys will be going.

                      Appreciate IT - Clearly this can and may well improve for a step up. However is clearly quick enough over 2m - Arkle
                      Bob Olinger - This horse is a tool, probably would win any of the novice chases. It will go I am sure Marsh

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I’d love to see Gaillard Du Mesnil campaigned as an RSA horse. He beat a load of stayers over 2m6f at the DRF, and truth be told ran a good race and probably ran into a freak at Cheltenham.. though i’m told 6 yo’s don’t have a great record in it?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Plenty of talk re potential 3m (ex RSA) horses but is Bob Olinger not the obvious candidate here ?
                          I can see the Marsh being considered but he absolutely tanked his way through the Ballymore and wasn’t stopping, the 3m race would seem the obvious progression for me...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                            Plenty of talk re potential 3m (ex RSA) horses but is Bob Olinger not the obvious candidate here ?
                            I can see the Marsh being considered but he absolutely tanked his way through the Ballymore and wasn’t stopping, the 3m race would seem the obvious progression for me...
                            Hmmm. He's 20/1 for the RSA. How savage could that look in 10 months?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by charlie View Post

                              Hmmm. He's 20/1 for the RSA. How savage could that look in 10 months?
                              I think there’s just an assumption he is a 20f horse but where does that put in in 2023, Ryanair ?
                              If that’s the long term project then I’ll give the game up, you see whether your horse is Gold Cup or Champion Chase standard and only when they’ve proved themselves not to be do you look towards Ryanairs.
                              I’d be very very tempted by that 20/1...

                              Comment

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