Cheltenham Gold Cup - 2019.

[Middle_Of_March]

I said on here somewhere (possibly on last years RSA thread after he won) that the trainer for Presenting Percy would worry me.

He’s way of prepping PP is bonkers imo. He won last year DESPITE that bonkers prep over the wrong trip against Our Duke.

It’s going to be January before we’ve even seen him despite them saying two months ago he was ready to run. Madness.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Surely they need at least two runs into him before the Gold Cup; and they are running out of time to do so

[Garrison Savannah]

Can’t have EE. Don’t like fancy each way prices about a horse that can’t win.

[Kevloaf]

Presenting Percy's position at the head of ante-post betting for the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup continues to solidify in his absence, and it now looks increasingly as if last year's RSA Chase hero will follow a similar route back to Cheltenham.
Trainer Pat Kelly had warned it was unlikely he would run his stable star in Friday's Savills Chase at Leopardstown if significant rain didn't arrive, so it was no surprise the seven-year-old did not feature among the final declarations on ground that was on Thursday officially described as good on the chase course.
Last season, Presenting Percy's final two outings ahead of the festival came when he won the Galmoy Hurdle and finished second to Our Duke in the Red Mills Chase.
Those two Gowran Park races, the first of which is scheduled to take place on January 24 and the second just over three weeks later on February 16, would form the preferred route back there now, according to the horse's owner Philip Reynolds.

The alternative plan would be to go to Cheltenham on the back of running in the Unibet Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 3.
Reynolds said: "I wouldn't be surprised if we went back for the Galmoy Hurdle now, and then the Red Mills Chase. He has to run over fences and it would be nice to get two runs into him, so that would be my preference at the moment.
"It's either that or come back here in February for the Gold Cup, and just give him that one run."
With this year's Gold Cup one-two Native River and Might Bite among the contenders who have failed to make a real impact this term, Presenting Percy remains steady in the Gold Cup betting at a top-priced 9-2.
Clan Des Obeaux's odds plummeted from 50-1 to a top-priced 10-1 following his heroics in the King George VI Chase, but it is Reynolds' horse, who has not been seen since March 14, that is making the market.
"It's desperately frustrating," Reynolds admitted of the delay. "Pat is fairly philosophical about it. He keeps reminding me there's one day for this horse this season and that's Gold Cup day.
"We don't want to leave it somewhere else, so what can we do? The horse is ready to run but we just have to be patient."

[Kevloaf]

Can’t have EE. Don’t like fancy each way prices about a horse that can’t win.

Why can't Elegant Escape win the Gold Cup?

Lord Windemere won. Plodder

Native River won. Synchronised won - both having won the Welsh National.

It's 1/40 that he doesn't win, but I think that I've just named 3 pretty fair horses with a similar profile that have won within the last 7 years?

[Garrison Savannah]

Why can't Elegant Escape win the Gold Cup?

Native River won

He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions

[Kevloaf]

He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions

Yeah you are 1/40 to be proved right, but Lord Windemere and Synchronised weren't good enough we're my opinions those seasons


A better 40/1 shot would be Presenting Percy, but we'd have to go back all the way to page 1 to see that

[Quevega]

He’s not good enough. He’d need to improve lbs and lbs to scrape a place.

Native River won carrying 4lbs more, against better opposition, with tons in hand. Was 10 lengths clear until Dickie wound him down.

All about opinions

All the novices from last year need to improve lbs and lbs , that's normal. Some of them do improve which is why they have such a good record.
EE form this year is very encouraging for the novice stayers from last season.
Native river didn't win against much better opposition did he ?

[Istabraq]

We are see things our own way but everything I've witnessed this Christmas period just hardens the case for Native River.
Thought his run in the King George was exceptional and with Might Bite gone at the game, Presenting Percy clearly having issues I'm struggling to find a viable alternative to the current champion.
Kemboy is a horse who has done nothing wrong and has the scope to improve to this level if his stamina can be taken as a given, and as I've said before the fact Mullens threw him in the Irish National as a 6yo having never raced further than 21f before tells me he has an engine, I'd like to see some evidence this will be the target before I get stuck in but I'll be looking to get him in the book soon.
So chipping away at Native River and Kemboy is the New Year plan...

[Hurricane fly]

Now THAT was more Gold Cup winner than the King George

Ramses De Teillee wouldn’t have got within 8 lengths (1+7lbs) of Might Bite let alone CDO

[Kevloaf]

Ramses De Teillee wouldn’t have got within 8 lengths (1+7lbs) of Might Bite let alone CDO

I don't know how to make my point any clearer than this.

If you strictly went on figures, then it was NOT a Gold Cup performance from Elegant Escape. That's fine.

However, Lord Windemere, Synchronised, Native River and all the other slow stayers that have won the Gold Cup, would ALL HAVE BEEN IN THE SAME BOAT.

They won it because they're dour stayers with enough class to win a big staying handicap.




and if I was going to make a handicapping point

Native River won his Welsh National carrying 4 lbs more than EE did and beat Raz De Maree 1.75L

Elegant Escape won his Welsh National beating Raz De Maree by 24L (with Raz De Maree only 1 lb worse off).

It's a stupid point, but to me that proves it's stupid to take the literal form figures too seriously.

He's out stayed them, and has class.

He's not a 40/1 shot.

[Garrison Savannah]

He's not a 40/1 shot.

I agree.

Should be at least 66s

Oh, and beating a 13 year old on the downgrade by only 22 lengths when lbs etter off isn’t a good argument in my eyes

[Kevloaf]

I agree.

Should be at least 66s

Haha,

[charlie]

Here's hoping for solid performances of RTR, Bellshill and Disko today

[archie]

I think you're a little harsh on Synchronised, Kev. His races before the Gold Cup were two hurdles and then success in the Lexus for which he went up to 167. Hard to say how good he might have been.