Win Today & Festival

[Lobos]

Shame they aren't doing a win today and Paddy Power Gold Cup for King of Ryhope race.

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Thursday;

Bugise Seagull & a/r 50-1
Cherie D’am & a/r 40-1
Johnnywho & BANC 66-1; a/r 25-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Friday;
Gale Mahler & MNH 33-1 (25-1 Sky)

Hills Saturday;
Broadway Boy & a/r 33-1; GC 150-1; GN 150-1
Some Scope & a/r 40-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Friday;
Gale Mahler & MNH 33-1 (25-1 Sky)

Hills Saturday;
Broadway Boy & a/r 33-1; GC 150-1; GN 150-1
Some Scope & a/r 40-1

….Hills have added;

Kish Bank & Gall 50-1; AB 50-1; a/r 25-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Sunday;

Stage Star & Ry 40-1;GC 100-1; a/r 20-1
Ahoy Senor & GC 150-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Sunday;

Stage Star & Ry 40-1;GC 100-1; a/r 20-1
Ahoy Senor & GC 150-1

…Hills have added;

Half Past Tipsy & MNH 150-1
Mozzie’s Sister & MNH 25-1
East India Dock & TH 50-1
Aurora Vega & MNH 22-1; Gall 66-1; a/r 14-1
Patter Merchant & Gall 100-1; AB 100-1
Al Arrivee & CB 33-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Monday;

Buddy One & BANC 40-1; a/r 20-1
Corbetts & Betfair 10-1; KG 25-1; Ry 25-1; GC 33-1; a/r 16-1; GN 50-1
Heart Wood & Ry 33-1; a/r 20-1

 

[Eggs]

….Hills Monday;

Buddy One & BANC 40-1; a/r 20-1
Corbetts & Betfair 10-1; KG 25-1; Ry 25-1; GC 33-1; a/r 16-1; GN 50-1
Heart Wood & Ry 33-1; a/r 20-1

…..Hills have added;

Inthepocket & a/r 16-1; Ark 22-1

 

[Eggs]

…PP;

Inthepocket & Ark 18-1
Corbetts & GC 40-1
Heart Wood & Ry 40-1

 

[Eggs]

…Hills;

Constitution Hill; Fighting 5th, Christmas Hurdle & CH 3-1

 

[Exar Essay]

…Hills;

Constitution Hill; Fighting 5th, Christmas Hurdle & CH 3-1

That's good isn't it? He's 6/4 for the Champion Hurdle. So you're getting evs that he wins the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle. You're unlikely to get 1/5 SP for either race.

Willie has already confirmed that State Man and Lossiemouth won't meet with Con Hill until the CH, so the only danger is Mystical Power (and there's no indication Willie intends to send him over either). If the Stable Tours suggest MP stays in Ireland, this is a price I might take.

 

[archie]

That's good isn't it? He's 6/4 for the Champion Hurdle. So you're getting evs that he wins the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle. You're unlikely to get 1/5 SP for either race.

Think you're getting 3/5 for the double on the other races, ie the odds that turn 6/4 Champion Hurdle into 3/1 for the treble. With the chances of injury or ground that doesn't suit Nicky, I'd make that quite skinny.

 

[Exar Essay]

Think you're getting 3/5 for the double on the other races, ie the odds that turn 6/4 Champion Hurdle into 3/1 for the treble. With the chances of injury or ground that doesn't suit Nicky, I'd make that quite skinny.

So you are. Your maths is better than mine this morning! I'll think again, but still think it could be decent depending on the terms and conditions (is the bet void on him being a NR)?

 

[Lobos]

…Hills;

Constitution Hill; Fighting 5th, Christmas Hurdle & CH 3-1

Always think these are horrible bets. Rarely come in. So many if/buts and maybes.

 

[DeeBee]

Always think these are horrible bets. Rarely come in. So many if/buts and maybes.

In the main I’d probably agree lobos - but for CH the main question is, is the old CH back. If he is he wins the CH and everything before it - so I’d actually rather back him at 3/1 for this than 6/4 - its all or nothing for him imo

 

[Lobos]

In the main I’d probably agree lobos - but for CH the main question is, is the old CH back. If he is he wins the CH and everything before it - so I’d actually rather back him at 3/1 for this than 6/4 - its all or nothing for him imo

Why not just back him single for each race making sure he's declared fit and well and then just roll up the winnings onto the next one ? You'll not get back as much but at least you'll be guaranteed something should he have another troubled season.

 

[Exar Essay]

Why not just back him single for each race making sure he's declared fit and well and then just roll up the winnings onto the next one ? You'll not get back as much but at least you'll be guaranteed something should he have another troubled season.

If you do that, what are you getting? 1/5, 1/8, 4/6? You’re getting about 5/4 doing it that way. So there’s enough value in considering taking the 3/1.

 

[archie]

Do some for the CH at 6/4. Do some for the 2 warm ups and reinvest for the CH if that's what turns you on. As it stands, 3/1 is a horrible bet.

 

[Quevega]

If you do that, what are you getting? 1/5, 1/8, 4/6? You’re getting about 5/4 doing it that way. So there’s enough value in considering taking the 3/1.

The Newcastle race might get abandoned through lack of entries, unless the Irish send one or two. More chance the Irish send one over at xmas I reckon.
Who's gonna run in the race at Newcastle ?

 

[Exar Essay]

The Newcastle race might get abandoned through lack of entries, unless the Irish send one or two. More chance the Irish send one over at xmas I reckon.
Who's gonna run in the race at Newcastle ?

There’ll be a small concern first time out I’d say given the health issues.

Willie and his team have already said State Man and Lossie won’t meet Con Hill until the Churdle. Irish Point is OFTS. Willie says Mystical Power is too slow for 2 miles. I can’t see Willie sending one of his good mares to get torn a new one. All of last years other decent novice hurdlers will go chasing. Gordon wouldn’t campaign BDA like that surely? Who else is there?