Win Today & Festival

[Craigy14]

Completely different tracks though. Depends what the likes of GDC and FTF look like as well. It could go either way.

Don’t think what other horses do has any bearing on it Lobos.

They clearly rate the horse very very highly to want a shot at the Grande Steeplechase having only just turned 6 start of the year. Aiming at the King George after what he did in the novice race last year possibly justifying why they want to go back for the big one this year. He remains unbeaten prior to Cheltenham I’ll be surprised what another horse does has any bearing on where he goes.

They’ve talked about a prep run over 3m6f, he take that race in and wins it they’ll go gold cup imo, especially if winning at Kempton too.

 

[Lobos]

Don’t think what other horses do has any bearing on it Lobos.

They clearly rate the horse very very highly to want a shot at the Grande Steeplechase having only just turned 6 start of the year. Aiming at the King George after what he did in the novice race last year possibly justifying why they want to go back for the big one this year. He remains unbeaten prior to Cheltenham I’ll be surprised what another horse does has any bearing on where he goes.

They’ve talked about a prep run over 3m6f, he take that race in and wins it they’ll go gold cup imo, especially if winning at Kempton too.

Hope you are right. KG winner should go GC every day of the week.

 

[Craigy14]

Hope you are right. KG winner should go GC every day of the week.

Aye agreed mate.

Although he’d need to overcome the poor record of of King George winners.

 

[Frankely My Dear]

Yep completely different track and race, will take a versatile horse to do the double. FOMO means I have to have the bugger covered

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Aye agreed mate.

Although he’d need to overcome the poor record of of King George winners.

I think that's a flawed stat/trend.
King George winners heading to the Gold Cup was a strong trend until the Irish revolution kicked into gear, their dominance of Cheltenham coupled with so many good races their side of the Irish Sea over Christmas there are very few that get sent to Kempton...

 

[Frankely My Dear]

Has anything changed though Ista that could see that trend bucked? Other than a rogue Frenchie steaming in I guess

 

[archie]

I think that's a flawed stat/trend.
King George winners heading to the Gold Cup was a strong trend until the Irish revolution kicked into gear, their dominance of Cheltenham coupled with so many good races their side of the Irish Sea over Christmas there are very few that get sent to Kempton...

I've long thought that Kempton form was well down the pecking order in terms of a positive stat for Cheltenham so I was surprised to see it described as a strong trend. I think that there are only 5 horses to do the KG/GC double in the same season although others have managed to win the races in different seasons.

 

[Craigy14]

I think that's a flawed stat/trend.
King George winners heading to the Gold Cup was a strong trend until the Irish revolution kicked into gear, their dominance of Cheltenham coupled with so many good races their side of the Irish Sea over Christmas there are very few that get sent to Kempton...

Archie has summed up what I meant, doing the double in the same season does not happen very often.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Has anything changed though Ista that could see that trend bucked? Other than a rogue Frenchie steaming in I guess

It’s been what, a dozen years since the Irish domination kicked in ?
I also don’t remember such a quality Irish schedule over Christmas but I could be wrong, archie will know better than me.
But it stands to reason that if the best Gold Cup contenders are Irish, and contest races in Ireland over Christmas then King George winners will have a poor Gold Cup record, even the creative department at the BHA and Jockey Club can’t dream up changes that will alter that any time soon….

 

[archie]

As it happens, since the Savills Chase took its current 3 mile distance (as the Ericsson in 1992) and became the Christmas trial for the Gold Cup in Ireland, before last season and GDC, only 3 horses had done the Savills/GC double in the same season. Interestingly, they were all trained in the UK. I'd say that you could make the argument that peaking for a G1 at Christmas isn't necessarily the best preparation for the Gold Cup.

 

[Frankely My Dear]

So until the Irish come over to contest the KG or stop going to the GC then it's a trend that can be considered. Agree with you archie it would be difficult keeping a horse at its peak for 3+ months. Might be circumstantial but unless things change I'm happy to take those as indicators to whittle down the choices for the GC. Thanks for your responses both of you

 

[Deleted member 4957]

So until the Irish come over to contest the KG or stop going to the GC then it's a trend that can be considered. Agree with you archie it would be difficult keeping a horse at its peak for 3+ months. Might be circumstantial but unless things change I'm happy to take those as indicators to whittle down the choices for the GC. Thanks for your responses both of you

I think archie makes a solid point about horses peaking in December.
We can analyse why it's hard now when it was commonplace a few years ago, different schedule, training methods, who know, but Burrough Hill Lad, Dessie, Kauto, The Fellow, See More Business, Best Mate, Kicking King, Long Run and I may have missed others all had the ability to win both races, though not always in the same season.
For me, the starting point for finding the Gold Cup winner is Ireland, I'm prepared to ignore all UK contenders until something special shows his/her face...

 

[Frankely My Dear]

I agree with that Ista, nothing UK-based can touch the Irish at the moment. One day maybe

 

[Killiney]

The recent Irish dominance has skewed the stats away from The King George but as already pointed out in the past it has not stopped a horse running well in both. I think 5 of the last 19 did the double which even taking into account recent records is not a bad stat. Maybe the King George places more emphasis on stamina than one expects and that this becomes a premium in the Gold Cup?

 

[Runragged]

Think people are getting too wrapped up in Cheltenham Fever already! The King George IS the horses 'Gold Cup' this year. Any race he runs at Cheltenham would be with the aim of getting experience for the following season in my mind. When was the last time a Gold Cup or Ryanair was won by a horse who had never been round Cheltenham? Still only a 6yo, his one piece of British form has taken a knock and has yet to race here outside of novice company. Potentially could be a superstar but also still has a fair bit to prove. Even if he was to win the KG we may still not know which race he will go at Cheltenham, let alone what he may be taking on in those races (Especially the Ryanair where several could be dropping in trip from GC in previous years).

 

[archie]

The recent Irish dominance has skewed the stats away from The King George but as already pointed out in the past it has not stopped a horse running well in both. I think 5 of the last 19 did the double which even taking into account recent records is not a bad stat. Maybe the King George places more emphasis on stamina than one expects and that this becomes a premium in the Gold Cup?

The point is that only 5 horses have ever done the KG/GC double in the same season. There are several recent examples of KG winners who didn't get home at Cheltenham, eg Silviniaco Conti, Clan Des Obeaux, Frodon and Bravemansgame - spot the link! - but going further back you have the likes of Wayward Lad and One Man.

We'll know more after his next race but, given the trainer's comments before last weekend, I'd say that the Ryanair is clear favourite for Il Est Francais next March if he turns up. I took 12/1 with my latest time-restricted free bet from Coral but I really don't see the point of throwing cash at any race at the moment. As was said before, back him for the KG and then take a view after that.

 

[opatcho]

Think those who backed Il Est Francais​ KG/Ryanair before his win and his price cut have a decent bet

wouldn’t touch him now

personally, and this is my gut feel, I don’t think Il Est Francais​ will act around Cheltenham. Just feels like a flat track bully, I’m sure someone will come out with “he won at this track in France and that’s undulating”… but I only have to go with what I think and if I’m wrong, I’m wrong

but Ryanair winners have been those that are battle hardened in tough novice company and with experience

I tend to stay away from horses that where novices chases, Allaho and Vautour are the recent exceptions but both of them imo are ahead of this lad

I’d take a 10 year old Bravemansgame or L’homme in the Ryanair over this lad (…. this might come back and bite me in a few months lol)

 

[Benjy23]

I think KG then Ryanair is probably the right thing to do. But I also completely see the angle that if he wins the KG they won't be able to get the Gold Cup out of their heads.

I also get those who haven't taken to him. If he runs in the Ryanair I'll be acting like he's the second coming. If he runs in the Gold Cup I'll have him as an over hyped Frenchie :beguiled:

 

[Lobos]

I already backed him for the GC (in a roll up with the GN winner) although at this stage I do prefer both F2F and GDC over him. It did feel like a no brainer however to do the KG/Ryanair double at 50/1 as if he wins the KG then clearly his price will be smashed for both races. I chose not to just back him for the Ryanair single as if he gets beat in the KG his price likely will be pushed out to bigger than it is now or, most probably, he'll just skip Cheltenham altogether.

 

[Eggs]

…Hills;

My Noble Lord & TH 50-1