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Win Today & Festival

….Hills Sat;

Hallelujah U & TH 66-1
Parchment & TH 50-1
Precious Man & TH 40-1
Secret Force & TH 80-1
Ace Brannigan & Sup 66-1; Turn 66-1
Ma Jacks Hill Turn 100-1; AB 100-1
Theflyingking & AB 66-1
Be Aware & Ark 100-1
Burdett Rd & Ark 80-1
July Flower & Ark 40-1 (one I think @Lobos was interested in); MC 20-1
Stencil & Ark 100-1
Jetara & MH 100-1
TYC & Stay 12-1
Jagwar & Ry 50-1; GC 100-1
Capt Guinness & CC 125-1
Dinoblue & CC 50-1; MC 12-1
FAF & CC 125-1
MN & CC 10-1
Solness & CC 100-1
Long Draw & Pert 40-1
Supremely West & Pert 25-1
KDB & Ark 7/2
 
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Exar Essay said:
I don't think he's the most likely winner of the race, but I don't think he's a dud by any means. I think he goes with a chance, especially on better ground. There's a case that Il Etait Temps may dislike Cheltenham more than Jonbon does. Majborough is my idea of the winner, but even Closutton accept his jumping needs improvement. He's far from a certainty. Marine looks a solid pick, but he is beatable and has had breathing issues in the past.

I also think that this weekend is a big crossroads. If he doesn't win, I'll put him out of my thoughts for the race until he proves otherwise. So I'd prefer the 20/1 WTAF than 14/1 win only.
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Jonbon has improved his RPR from 1st to 2nd start every year so could be vulnerable first up though there are also claims that he improves for racing at Sandown as ever since going chasing his 2nd start has come at the track.

Will be watching the WTAF bets though as if they get the rain forecast, or worse, then could be some great value before prices adjust due to n/rs.
 
Like a few of those. July Flower (Arkle), Dino (MC), Jag (Ryanair), Hallelujah U (Triumph).
 
That 40s July Flower is fair enough. Not great but fair... Think I might take it as KDB cover.
 
Like Leau Du Sud (WT & CC).............don't tell Exar though.........shhhhhh
 
Lobos said:
Like Leau Du Sud (WT & CC).............don't tell Exar though.........shhhhhh
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I'm thinking that on the premise that Jonbon gets pulled. May nibble it anyway. Wouldn't mind being on him at 66/1 if he wins tomorrow and Festival comes up a bog.
 
Runragged said:
I'm thinking that on the premise that Jonbon gets pulled. May nibble it anyway. Wouldn't mind being on him at 66/1 if he wins tomorrow and Festival comes up a bog.
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I very much doubt they'll pull Jonbon. He needs the race to get him 100% for the Tingle . He's got plenty of form on Soft.
 
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Lobos said:
I very much doubt they'll pull Jonbon. He needs the race to get him 100% for the Tingle . He's got plenty of form on Soft.
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That's the question. Do they want to run a horse whose had a wind op on bad ground when the main target is in just over 3 weeks time? Now talking "significantly more than 30mm overnight", they could be splashing through it if the rain doesn't soak straight in, which is possible after how dry it has been. 'Cotton wool' Henderson may prefer to play it safe. Tingle Creek is almost double the prize-money to this.
 
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Leau Du Sud has to improve 11lb on RPR's to win the weakest QMCC in the last 10 years (and more on official ratings). Is he likely to do that as a relatively exposed 7 turning 8 yo? I'm not so sure. I'd like to be sitting on a 66/1 ticket for the book should he win this weekend, but I don't think he can win the race in March. I think it more likely he finishes off the pace with a view to losing a few lbs for the Grand Annual. It's so hard to know though with Dan.

I know Marine Nationale improved significantly last year, but that was following a truncated and issue laden Novice Chase campaign. It's reasonable to see his novice chase season as the outlier in his career trajectory.

I don't think LDS has ever looked likely to be a 170+ horse. I could well be very wrong.
 
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Runragged said:
That's the question. Do they want to run a horse whose had a wind op on bad ground when the main target is in just over 3 weeks time? Now talking "significantly more than 30mm overnight", they could be splashing through it if the rain doesn't soak straight in, which is possible after how dry it has been. 'Cotton wool' Henderson may prefer to play it safe. Tingle Creek is almost double the prize-money to this.
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It's good to soft (good in places) as of today and Cheltenham's drainage is excellent. That's a hell of a lot of rain though. It could be really interesting ground tomorrow.
 
Exar Essay said:
Leau Du Sud has to improve 11lb on RPR's to win the weakest QMCC in the last 10 years (and more on official ratings). Is he likely to do that as a relatively exposed 7 turning 8 yo? I'm not so sure. I'd like to be sitting on a 66/1 ticket for the book should he win this weekend, but I don't think he can win the race in March. I think it more likely he finishes off the pace with a view to losing a few lbs for the Grand Annual. It's so hard to know though with Dan.

I know Marine Nationale improved significantly last year, but that was following a truncated and issue laden Novice Chase campaign. It's reasonable to see his novice chase season as the outlier in his career trajectory.

I don't think LDS has ever looked likely to be a 170+ horse. I could well be very wrong.
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I'm not sure he is exposed, though I am always wary of horses having their first run outside of novice company as it can be a big leap. Last year he was used to build up prize money for the Skelton's title bids (Trainers Championship and the David Power Jockey's Cup) so by the time the Festival had come round he had already won £150k for the cause. Possible the earlier exertions and the quicker ground went against him by the time of the Festivals.

Captain Guinness won with an RPR of 167 which is 10lb improvement on a rating L'Eau Du Sud got in conditions that didn't suit in the Arkle. Not out of the realms of possibilities if getting his ground.
 
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Exar Essay said:
It's good to soft (good in places) as of today and Cheltenham's drainage is excellent. That's a hell of a lot of rain though. It could be really interesting ground tomorrow.
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7.30 contact from course regarding the possibility of racing going ahead on Friday
I will be 2 1/2 hours into my journey by then, sat in Tamworth services 🤞🤞
 
Guinness Village said:
7.30 contact from course regarding the possibility of racing going ahead on Friday
I will be 2 1/2 hours into my journey by then, sat in Tamworth services 🤞🤞
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Doesn't sound promising at all does it.
 
….Hills;

TYC & Stay + KDB & Ark 40-1
 
Eggs said:
….Fri;

Hills;
Wade Out & BANC 100-1
Jonbon & Tingle 3-1; a/r 12-1; CC 18-1
L’eau de Sud & CC 66-1
Heads Up & Turn 50-1

PP;
Jonbon & Ry 14-1; CC 20-1
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….Hills have added;
Heads Up & AB 66-1
No Drama this End & Turn 66-1; AB 66-1
Fortune de Mer & a/r 50-1
 
Have done the July Flower (Arkle) , Leau De Sud and Fortune de Mer (Any) WTAF.

Fully expecting to get refunded on FDM but pretty sure Shloer will be transferred to the Saturday or Sunday.
 
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