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Win Today & Festival

….Hills Friday;

Broadway Boy & GC 100-1
Chianti & GC 80-1
Giovinco & GC 150-1
Heart Wood & GC 80-1
Inothewayurthinkin & GC 40-1
Iroko & GC 80-1
Dysart & CH 100-1
Firefox & CH 125-1
Golden Ace & CH 125-1
Mystical Power & CH 40-1
Jonbon & CC 16-1; Ry 14-1
Protektorat & Ry 25-1
 
robith said:
Yeah I would rule them out on that stat for a WTAF bet because they tend not to follow up next year. Some trends are just outcome bias, but some are because of the race programme. I'd reserve the right to change my mind later but for that particular bet, allow it. Anyway, I said it was just my personal view, feel free to knock yourself out on them
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I'd put the WTAF bets to one side myself.

And none of them look particularly good value either :highly_amused:


So it appears you're saying the logic behind the stat is because of the race programme then ? - Not sure what that means ?

I only asked as you appeared to rule out making any of those bets because of the stat regarding Aintree winners following up at next years festival.
It appeared more of an outcome bias type to me.

Obviously the Mullins/Irish dominance is a major factor in recent years and his and other Irish trainers relative lack of runners at Aintree on average. But this could be said about any British based meeting over the last few years, aside from ones like trials day that are much nearer the event, so logically this would have a better likelihood of success.

I'd say you'd be hard pressed to find many UK based race meetings that provide much more than one or two winners following up at the festival.
 
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archie said:
It will be 6 months before he has any idea of the program for an individual horse and he will probably change his mind several times after that.
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Yep, you are probably right. He set a plan out of JD, Xmas then DRF before the GC for him but then that's likely for several . He does adore him by the sounds of it. Says he's a better looking chaser than GDC which is a big compliment. He's got a new teachers pet.........move over Facile Vega!
 
Unfortunately I am limited to an amount which is on the verge of making my account useless, but Sky have what I consider to be some very good value WTAF. The ones which jumped out to me:

IEP and Any Novice Chase - 18/1
Kargese and Mates Hurdle - 33/1
Jonbon an Ryanair - 25/1
 
Exar Essay said:
Unfortunately I am limited to an amount which is on the verge of making my account useless, but Sky have what I consider to be some very good value WTAF. The ones which jumped out to me:

IEP and Any Novice Chase - 18/1
Kargese and Mates Hurdle - 33/1
Jonbon an Ryanair - 25/1
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….Kargese and MH 40-1 with PP.

Sky;
Sir Gino & a/r 6-1; Ark 9-1
Grey Dawning & a/r 8-1; Ry 12-1; GC 20-1
BDA & a/r 9-1
Jonbon & a/r 10-1; Ry 20-1
IEP & a/r 14-1; any Nov ch 18-1
Irish Point & Stay 16-1
It’s on the Line & Hunters 16-1
Gerri & GC 25-1
Ginny’s & Ry 25-1
Kargese & MH 33-1
Corbett’s & GC 40-1
Shishkin & GC 66-1
 
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….PP;

Jonbon & Ry 14-1
Firefox & Ark 20-1
Mystical Power & Ark 20-1
Inothewayurthinkin’ & GC 33-1
The Jukebox Man & NHC 40-1
Croke Park & NHC 66-1
 
Fancy Croke Park today so was half tempted by the 66/1, don’t want to invest in the NH Chase though if there’s potential for changes to the race.
 
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….Hills;

Cuthbert & Stay 150-1
Monmiral & Stay 200-1
Jimmy du Seuil & BANC 66-1
Ile Atlant & Ark 66-1
Crebily & GN 100-1
KOR & GN 150-1
Forward Plan & GN 200-1
Flooring & Stay 50-1
Crambo & Stay 100-1
Hiddenvalley & Stay 100-1
FAF & CC 40-1
Mister Meggit & Sup 66-1
 
For anyone with a Sky account, they’re offering 9/1 on Brighterdaysahead to win today and AR 2025 - seems great value to me.
 
….Hills tomorrow;

Golden Ace & CH 40-1
 
Anyone seen anything for Quai de Bourbon today and at fez?
 
Benjy23 said:
Bit late now :glee:

Looked good though.
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…ha, ha, didn’t realise he ran yesterday. I was in for emergency detached retina surgery on Friday so I’ve been a bit out of it these last few days. Not for the squeamish if you don’t like a series of needles in your eyeball and then an hour watching them fix holes and re-attach the retina:miserable::miserable: Hopefully on the road to recovery but have had to cancel a holiday abroad in a few weeks time.
 
Eggs said:
…ha, ha, didn’t realise he ran yesterday. I was in for emergency detached retina surgery on Friday so I’ve been a bit out of it these last few days. Not for the squeamish if you don’t like a series of needles in your eyeball and then an hour watching them fix holes and re-attach the retina:miserable::miserable: Hopefully on the road to recovery but have had to cancel a holiday abroad in a few weeks time.
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I think Etta James sang a famous song about the procedure you've endured,bet you're glad it's done.
 
Black Dog said:
I think Etta James sang a famous song about the procedure you've endured,bet you're glad it's done.
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…..I knew what was happening as it’s my 2nd experience as I had exactly the same occurrence in my other eye in 2021. They actually put gas with a bubble behind the eye to aid recovery. Not much you can do about it, now have to lie on my left side for an age. Never mind.
 
Makes me shudder thinking about it. Hope you're recovery goes well :encouragement:
 
Eggs said:
…..I knew what was happening as it’s my 2nd experience as I had exactly the same occurrence in my other eye in 2021. They actually put gas with a bubble behind the eye to aid recovery. Not much you can do about it, now have to lie on my left side for an age. Never mind.
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Anthony Taylor must have the same issue with his retinas in the Everton game, missing both those Forest penalties :devilish:
 
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