Win Any Race 2018

[Kevloaf]

Believe it or not I know someone who was 450k worse off after that race...

That in potential winnings?

All relative to what you can lose
.... I imagine 1 pt for that punter is more than it is for the loaf :highly_amused:

And yes oceans I do agree value is perceived differently. For me, ante post I try to beat the SP and then the week of the race I can manipulate my position to win as much as I can from whatever I fancy the most .... so I personally do think 11/4 will be worth a bet

 

[Deleted member 4957]

That in potential winnings?

No Kev, 450k to win 100k.
Same punter had 400k to win 100k Altior the day before.

I wouldn't feel too sorry for him, he does own half of Berkshire and is probably no worse that 50th in line for the throne....

 

[oceans]

and probably doesn't hang around racing forums. There were millions lost in total on Douvan, but apparently the 2/9 odds were there only because of bookies running scared of... actually bets like these.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

and probably doesn't hang around racing forums. There were millions lost in total on Douvan, but apparently the 2/9 odds were there only because of bookies running scared of... actually bets like these.

Obviously there were millions lost on him. I questioned your assertion it was the same people who had won on him previously.

 

[Leman14]

Min at 7s - other than Altior in the CC and UDS in the Ryanair there aren't other big dangers.
Samcro at 4s - hopefully continues the winning streak and for either novice races will have a huge shot.

I'm struggling to see why anyone backing Douvan @ 11/4 "Any Race" is a mug (9 from 10 over fences), whereas backing Samcro @ 4/1 in the same market is good value (1/1 over hurdles)

I'm not on knocking backing Samcro in this market (as I am on at 10's :triumphant and I haven't backed Douvan in the Any Race market - I just don't follow the logic...

 

[archie]

Everyone uses the data in whatever way suits them best but, in very similar conditions, Douvan ran his Champion Chase in a time that was about 9 seconds slower than when he won the Arkle. To use that race as the definitive measure of his talent flies in the face of the other 9 chases that he contested and 9/1 is the approximate price of that being the correct methodology. Cross race form on different days (never mind different years) is notoriously unreliable but 9 seconds is a large enough figure to be fairly confident that Douvan ran well below previous form in the Champion Chase.
That doesn't mean that I think that Douvan is a good thing for the Tingle Creek against a race-fit Fox Norton but then I'm not convinced that he's a good thing to even turn up. The problem with the relatively short 11/4 is that it will be changed in exactly the same way whether he wins the Tingle Creek or the Hilly Way and I could only be interested in that sort of price in multiples or as NRNB.

 

[Aldie1988]

There are so many differing opinions on this subject which makes for good reading. That's why i love this forum!

I think the distance beaten was understandable when he injured himself at the 3rd or 4th fence about 3 furlongs into the race and continued to race with a stress fractured pelvis which i imagine got gradually worse as the race went on.

Lets not forget this is a horse who ate everything alive prior to that race.

Even if he dodges the Tingle Creek ( which i think he will and UDS will run ). If no Douvan or UDS, I still think the yard should have a runner in it to get a gauge on how much the horses in the division have improved and whether it would be just Altior to worry about or a massively improved Fox Norton would be a challenge also, because last week was very impressive.

All in all I hope he is back like faugheen and does a demolition job!!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

It looks like Paddy Power have stopped allowing horses from the any race market being added to multiples.

 

[Kevloaf]

Anyone think Tombstone is interesting at 25/1 Any Race?

Paz has also highlighted 20/1 Killultagh Vic which is intersting too IMO

 

[billymag]

FWIW one of the ways that ive changed my antepost chelt punting over the years is not to bet horses that have had a setback until they are at least declared in the final line up of a prep race. Its probably cost me a few points off the price and im not sure if over all its a tactic that has saved me money in the long run, but importantly it just suits the way i bet more. If I back a horse thats had a setback and then doesnt run again, Im a total pain in the arse and it affects my mood for days, its not fair on the family and for that reason i dont do it now. I suppose its important for everyone to find their own comfortable level to keep this enjoyable and in the times when things go wrong it doesnt get too much and cross over into other parts of life, its supposed to be fun and important to try and keep that way. Happy Xmas everyone.

 

[charlie]

Anyone think Tombstone is interesting at 25/1 Any Race?

Paz has also highlighted 20/1 Killultagh Vic which is intersting too IMO

Completely agree. It's odd you cite those two specific horses as I backed Tombstone and Killultugh Vic in the to win any race market last week.

I also think Bamako Morriveire at 20/1 is generous to say the least. Form being franked over and over.

 

[charlie]

I am far more inclined to bet in this market as I have been stung by Mullins bingo. Stand out prices IMO

Tombstone 25/1
Killultugh Vic 20/1
Bamako Moriviere 20/1
Mall Dini 16/1

 

[Scooby91]

I am far more inclined to bet in this market as I have been stung by Mullins bingo. Stand out prices IMO

Tombstone 25/1
Killultugh Vic 20/1
Bamako Moriviere 20/1
Mall Dini 16/1

Bamako deffinately not had a setback??? I'd be wary.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hovering over Sutton Place at 12/1 any race tomorrow with WH and BFSB - if he looks like winning I'll be getting involved

Also worth mentioning Coney Island is available at 14/1 any race, best priced 16s for the Gold Cup...... for the 2pts less I'd have the Ryanair covered in this market....

AND, Singlefarmpayment is 20/1 any race with WH - best priced 16s for the Ultima :triumphant:

 

[Kevloaf]

....If The Cap Fits 14/1 ANy race BFSB - best price 14/1 Supreme but thats with 'sportingbet' who i doubt anyone uses? Best price 12s everywhere else...

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

....If The Cap Fits 14/1 ANy race BFSB - best price 14/1 Supreme but thats with 'sportingbet' who i doubt anyone uses? Best price 12s everywhere else...

Good spot Kev, couldn't resist one final top little top up

 

[jono]

Also worth mentioning Coney Island is available at 14/1 any race, best priced 16s for the Gold Cup...... for the 2pts less I'd have the Ryanair covered in this market....

AND, Singlefarmpayment is 20/1 any race with WH - best priced 16s for the Ultima :triumphant:

Good finds.

Took the 14/1 Coney Island after the Leopardstown Chase today. Still available after today despite 12/1 best price for the Gold Cup.

Singlefarmpayment too looks good, just posted a bit about him in the Ultima thread :encouragement:

Another for anyone who doesn't have Supasundae covered in the Stayers - 14/1 Any Race with Betfair when he's best priced 8/1

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Apples Shakira and Apples Jade both to win any race at the Cheltenham Festival 2018 @ 13/2
Special Bets for 2018- Ante Post Rules Apply
RequestABet

Just had to claim some of this and surprisingly I was allowed a decent amount.
The current Hills prices of evs and 3/1 make their 6/1 closest to the Sky offer so 13/2 isn't exactly a giveaway but I like both horses....

 

[Kevloaf]

Apples Shakira and Apples Jade both to win any race at the Cheltenham Festival 2018 @ 13/2
Special Bets for 2018- Ante Post Rules Apply
RequestABet

Just had to claim some of this and surprisingly I was allowed a decent amount.
The current Hills prices of evs and 3/1 make their 6/1 closest to the Sky offer so 13/2 isn't exactly a giveaway but I like both horses....

Really like that, would give me some cover on the Apples Shakira Mares Novice route!

4 pts on :encouragement: