Win Any Race 2018

[Scooby91]

I'm happy to wait for the return of the horse before saying one bad run, injury or not, means he is overhyped etc... I'm pretty sure he'll come back to the Douvan we knew before the QMCC last season.

I really want him to take on the Tingle Creek, instead of the easier, more boring route of the Hilly Way! 'IF' he turns up to the Tingle Creek I'll probably back him for the Ryanair as it's the same route UDS took last season.

Mullins been quoted a few times this week saying tingle creek the target

 

[archie]

The problem with Willie is that he'll always give you his honest current opinion but that changes on a day to day basis particularly fast work days.
At the end of September I had shares in a high class 2 mile hurdler (Bunk Off Early), a staying hurdler (Kemboy) and a novice chaser (Cadmium). Early November, when I was there, that had changed to 2 novice chasers as Kemboy schooled very well. Early last week that had changed to 3 novice chasers as Bunk Off Early had schooled very well. In the RP stable tour, which I think was the middle of last week, we have Kemboy definitely chasing, BOE and Cadmium undecided.
It's a brave man who can predict how the dice will roll in 3 months time.

As far as UDS is concerned, both Min and Douvan would be ahead of him at 2 miles.

 

[oceans]

Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?

I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?

There's no value about him unfortunately, he's been over rated to a big degree both by public and rating organizations. If he loses he goes to Ryanair, most likely getting done by UDS. If he goes to CC he'll get done by Altior. Anything over 6/1 would be the value about him on this market.

He won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more. The rest of his races were in Ireland with no serious opposition and no serious cash exchanged.

Well I certainly don’t live in a world where Special Tiara is better than Douvan and I don’t think Fox Norton improved 21+ lengths between the Arkle and the CC

Fox Norton got beat by Douvan as a novice and was rated in the mid 140, now he's rated 169. Thats 30 lengths. Douvan improved as well but he's currently over rated at 174. He's at best 170 horse on what he's shown up to now, he needs to produce a winning performance beating FN by 5 lengths to prove he deserves the 174 figure.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

He won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more.

How do you know that?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

At 170 he'd still be one of the best horses in training Oceans. It seems to me you are writing him off after one poor run, where he had a valid excuse (stress fracture of the pelvis).

I'm not a Douvan super fan but it's hard to argue that he's overrated. He may not be the best horse in training but he'd be in the top 5 imo.

 

[somer1]

I do all my betting with a firm with 3 letters and 3 numbers in its name which don't do "to win any race" at cheltenham. Where would you go to bet for this service? And your everyday betting?

 

[oceans]

He won many houses in his first 2 festival wins, most of those who won placed all on him winning one of the weakest CC in recent history and lost all back and more.

How do you know that?

Public knowledge & his Cheltenham odds where the biggest bets are placed.

 

[oceans]

At 170 he'd still be one of the best horses in training Oceans. It seems to me you are writing him off after one poor run, where he had a valid excuse (stress fracture of the pelvis).

I'm not a Douvan super fan but it's hard to argue that he's overrated. He may not be the best horse in training but he'd be in the top 5 imo.

Yes but coming back from injury & first run there's all reasons to believe he won't achieve the highest mark that he ran to only once before. Lets say he losses in the Tingle, his odds will become acceptable either for the Ryanair or CC. Just no point waiting for the pay on Friday to place on these current odds, unless you're a mug.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Public knowledge?! Of all bets punters placed on a horse?!

Its odds didnt tell you anything, other than the fact the bookies were running scared and didn't want to lay what appeared a good thing. It's pure conjecture to state, as if its fact, that all Douvan fans lost everything they had made on him, and more, on one bad run.

I can you tell you I won a nice sum on him in the Supreme, and didn't back him either year after that as he was so short.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yes but coming back from injury & first run there's all reasons to believe he won't achieve the highest mark that he ran to only once before. Lets say he losses in the Tingle, his odds will become acceptable either for the Ryanair or CC. Just no point waiting for the pay on Friday to place on these current odds, unless you're a mug.

Let's say he wins it though .... he'll be shorter than he is now.

If he is shorter then are people still mugs because you don't think he will win either race?

You say you think 6/1 would be value, is that on his relative chance to win either race, or on what you think his SP would be?

To me depending on how you bet/ play a market ... 11/4 could very easily be argued as good value ... especially with your argument being him being over bet a key factor in it

 

[Scooby91]

Public knowledge?! Of all bets punters placed on a horse?!

Its odds didnt tell you anything, other than the fact the bookies were running scared and didn't want to lay what appeared a good thing. It's pure conjecture to state, as if its fact, that all Douvan fans lost everything they had made on him, and more, on one bad run.

I can you tell you I won a nice sum on him in the Supreme, and didn't back him either year after that as he was so short.

At the risk of after timing I backed him in the supreme and the arkle months before antepost.
I thought he was a certainty in the qmcc but I never backed him as he was never more than a shade over evens antepost . And the plan was to back sprinter sacre before he got retired.

To level it out I did have a very large ammount to me. on faugheen the year before and despite backing him previously I am down on the horse.
But may Hopefully make that back this year.

 

[oceans]

Maybe not you CCM, but the big players most certainly have. As for us small timers I get it you didn't followed him after the Supreme, but I also don't see the value now at 11/4 and the poster I responded to said he should be odds on in any race.. my posts were mostly relating to that.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

How do you know I'm a small timer? And how on earth do you know what most of the big players did?

Your posts didn't relate to just that. You made sweeping generalisations based on very little, then called others 'mugs' because they have a different opinion to you.

If Douvan hoses up in the Tingle Creek, he will be odds on and 11/4 will look a shrewd bet. It's not for me at the price, but I can see why others would go for it.

 

[oceans]

Let's say he wins it though .... he'll be shorter than he is now.

If he is shorter then are people still mugs because you don't think he will win either race?

You say you think 6/1 would be value, is that on his relative chance to win either race, or on what you think his SP would be?

To me depending on how you bet/ play a market ... 11/4 could very easily be argued as good value ... especially with your argument being him being over bet a key factor in it

Everyone sees value differently I hope you agree with that. So if I don't see the value with 11/4, you can imagine that even if he wins the Tingle I still won't see him as value but for others it might still. As I said he'll have his season debut, in a big race like Tingle Creek, from injury, couple chasers around that can run in the high 160s and beat him fto.

 

[Scooby91]

Everyone sees value differently I hope you agree with that. So if I don't see the value with 11/4, you can imagine that even if he wins the Tingle I still won't see him as value but for others it might still. As I said he'll have his season debut, in a big race like Tingle Creek, from injury, couple chasers around that can run in the high 160s and beat him fto.

Not much point in the discussion of how good douvan is currently
Won't find out until the festival anyway.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Whether you are right or wrong, he'll shorten up after a reappearance and he won't need to meet a 'top 2 miler' until the festival.

Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?

I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?

Believe it or not I know someone who was 450k worse off after that race...

 

[oceans]

It's all about opinions at the end of the day...
If we all bet they same way... it would get quite boring!!

Oceans.. have you made any plays in this market?

Min at 7s - other than Altior in the CC and UDS in the Ryanair there aren't other big dangers.
Samcro at 4s - hopefully continues the winning streak and for either novice races will have a huge shot.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

The problem with Willie is that he'll always give you his honest current opinion but that changes on a day to day basis

And this is why betting ante post, more so on Mullins horses because of the quality and volume he has, is fraught with such danger...

 

[Scooby91]

Min at 7s - other than Altior in the CC and UDS in the Ryanair there aren't other big dangers.
Samcro at 4s - hopefully continues the winning streak and for either novice races will have a huge shot.

Samcro at 4s any race is value to yourself ?
Just out of interest

 

[oceans]

Small chances he goes Supreme, given where he's entered at the weekend. But at 4/1 it won't matter because I'd rather not win @ 8/1 than lose at 5/1 if they do switch to Supreme, and I think he stands great chance in both.