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Win Any Race 2018

For me I have
Samcro at 14, 12 and 10s
Red Jack 16s
 
Fox Norton 4/1 - would be shorter if he went Ryanair
Wouldn't be in the GC unless he went KG and won? - 50s available as highlighted in GC thread
CC would probably need D and A not to turn up to be shorter than 4/1



I do still think the 11/4 about Douvan is a price well worth considering again though...

11/4 Douvan

Now realistically, is Douvan going to go off bigger prices than that?
CC - vs Altior... they won't meet until then, and Douvan is only 11/4 NOW in the CC market and that price factors in the fact he may not run

Ryanair - Can't be ruled out and would make some sense.... would be way shorter than 11/4 no matter what turned up?!

Gold Cup - Will surely only go for the Gold CUp if he has WON a trial for it? If he wins the King George he won't be any bigger than Thistlecrack was that is for sure!!! Incredibly unlikely both Yorkhill AND Douvan both ran in the same race too, so if DOuvan was the chosen one, his price would contract for being 'the chosen one' anyway.

In short, 8 pts now could save plenty of sleepless nights? I haven't backed this myself but I think I've made less convincing arguements in my time
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CC - still 11/4 Any race with the "DOUBTS" or certainly un-ideal prep for Altior.... this now seems quite generous? Especially as he is 3/1 best priced and that factors in the 'uncertainty'

Ryanair, no change on previously, if he runs he goes off odds on and wins with a clear round. No chance he'd be north of 11/4

Gold Cup - Most unlikely still, and surely only a KG win would see Douvan turn up.... and then he would be shorter than 11/4




I didn't back it at the time I posted, but now I've seen Faugheen make a come back, I think the second I see Min ping a few fences on Sunday, I will have 8 pts at 11/4 (WH) on Douvan in this market and hope that Willie can make it 3 out of 3 stars that show the same zest when he comes out.

What do people think?
 
When fit Douvan is the best horse in racing and should never be odds against for any race, luckily I get paid next Friday so can put a couple of units on before the Tingle Creek if he is declared
 
Is this a parallel world in which Douvan bubble didn't burst? I guess failing to win one of the worst renewals of CC means he was injured or just a blip. If he really was injured how could he have jumped the last fence in the CC as beautifully, I wonder. People do like to overrate this animal and lose their houses in the process.
 
I don't mean to be rude oceans, but are you on the wind up? Are you trying to suggest that was as good as Douvan actually is? A horse that can't beat Traffic Fluide or Sir Valentino?

I think it's pretty obvious that bubbles weren't burst, but the horse was plainly wrong on the day. And finished lame.

It seems odd to forget all the scintillating performances he has produced and use that one run as some kind of proof he isn't as good as some might suggest. Especially when he won 12 or 13 races previously.
 
Hopefully serves as a warning the above poster who waits for Friday pay to waste it on Douvan return. Never beat a decent 2 mile chaser, was found for whatever reason the first time in open company and apparently returns from an injury. Mullins wanted to take him 3 miles but Walsh convinced him to stay for 2, however the former is known to change his mind and Douvan could end up in Ryanair with Min going for the CC.
 
Changing of minds won't be an issue, as I think that he is referring to the "any race" market...
Barring injury, you get a run for your money.
 
Hurricane fly said:
When fit Douvan is the best horse in racing and should never be odds against for any race, luckily I get paid next Friday so can put a couple of units on before the Tingle Creek if he is declared
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I'm not sure we can say he is the best horse in racing just yet but he is certainly one of them.
 
It's all about opinions at the end of the day...
If we all bet they same way... it would get quite boring!!

Oceans.. have you made any plays in this market?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I don't mean to be rude oceans, but are you on the wind up? Are you trying to suggest that was as good as Douvan actually is? A horse that can't beat Traffic Fluide or Sir Valentino?

I think it's pretty obvious that bubbles weren't burst, but the horse was plainly wrong on the day. And finished lame.

It seems odd to forget all the scintillating performances he has produced and use that one run as some kind of proof he isn't as good as some might suggest. Especially when he won 12 or 13 races previously.
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Clearly wasn't his true running. But will he come back as good as he was? And is that good enough to beat altior?
That's why he's 11/4 any race.
If we knew the answer then would be a fantastic price, but I personally think he will need to improve on what he's done so far to beat altior.
11/4 is a fair price imo without being exceptional.
 
The beauty of kevs bet, is that douvan is set to avoid the tingle creek like the plague according to the real stable tour wich is using the pp odds.
He will go to the hillyway bolt up at long odds on against nothing that would get within a fence of altior and be hailed he's back better than ever, "he's a monster" and ve half the odds he is now for learning nothing what so ever about his claims to winning this year's qmcc.

Of have no problem with that what so ever aslong as they drift altior out accordingly.

But in terms of current odds if you want one to shorten dramatically douvan is the one.

Its not for me as I'm happy to wait to back altior. And stick with min.
But if you was hat way inclined you could back douvan now wait for altior to drift and end up with both around even money coupled.
 
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oceans said:
Is this a parallel world in which Douvan bubble didn't burst? I guess failing to win one of the worst renewals of CC means he was injured or just a blip. If he really was injured how could he have jumped the last fence in the CC as beautifully, I wonder. People do like to overrate this animal and lose their houses in the process.
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Whether you are right or wrong, he'll shorten up after a reappearance and he won't need to meet a 'top 2 miler' until the festival.

Therefore his price will be shorter. If you're adamant the bubble is burst on merit and wouldn't win any of the 3 races, back to lay ... or lay him now?

I'm not sure how many houses were lost though in his 15 races?
 
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Value.

There can't be many arguments that 11/4 any race is exactly that. As he will surely be shorter in the CC or Ryanair come March.

But.... I don't think he will win either (rightly or wrongly).

Question is, should I still be backing Douvan anyway? As he may well win!

With the idea being to get to the race with around three horses running for profit at bigger prices than SP?

Interested in opinions. :)
 
If you want one that will shorten and I can say it now as iv just taken the last what I want at 29.0 been backing form 55.0 down.
Is thistlecrack for the stayers.

Atm about 10% he goes there.
In my eyes he's an odds on chance to win the long distance hurdle against UNWIMH.
I'd rate him a 6/4 chance with a run for the stayers now.

10% chance × 6/4 is about 16.0.
When he wins the long distance hurdle he will shorten right up even though he's not going to the stayers.
If he dosent go close in the king george or has a minor setback anytime after the long walk. That 10% chance will increase.

And I don't want to be sweating on a book of
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1
Let's dance 103.0
Win only.
 
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oceans said:
Is this a parallel world in which Douvan bubble didn't burst? I guess failing to win one of the worst renewals of CC means he was injured or just a blip. If he really was injured how could he have jumped the last fence in the CC as beautifully, I wonder. People do like to overrate this animal and lose their houses in the process.
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Well I certainly don’t live in a world where Special Tiara is better than Douvan and I don’t think Fox Norton improved 21+ lengths between the Arkle and the CC

I trust what I saw in the prior 10 starts over his last one which - while you might not believe them - has excuses.
 
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I'm happy to wait for the return of the horse before saying one bad run, injury or not, means he is overhyped etc... I'm pretty sure he'll come back to the Douvan we knew before the QMCC last season.

I really want him to take on the Tingle Creek, instead of the easier, more boring route of the Hilly Way! 'IF' he turns up to the Tingle Creek I'll probably back him for the Ryanair as it's the same route UDS took last season.
 
I may be wrong - I often am - but I can see almost no circumstances in which Douvan would go for the Ryanair. It sounds uncomfortably like Ricci and Vautour but UDS and Douvan are two of the most loved horses in the yard and I don't see them in direct opposition.
 
archie said:
I may be wrong - I often am - but I can see almost no circumstances in which Douvan would go for the Ryanair. It sounds uncomfortably like Ricci and Vautour but UDS and Douvan are two of the most loved horses in the yard and I don't see them in direct opposition.
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No way in which UDS goes back in trip to the CC, maybe looking for some retribution for his defeat by Sprinter in 2016?

I actually prefer the 5/1 'Any Race' for UDS than the 11/4 'Any Race' for Douvan though.
 
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