Weather Watch 2021

[charlie]

When it's been a warm and drying spell throughout the fez even the watering doesn't stop it getting quick in relation to what they've been running on all season. Plenty of times the official going has so say been G/S on the first day and beyond but times of the races prove that not to be the case. Very important to look at times not going description

Yeh saying it will be quick ground and saying it will be quicker than what most have encountered are two different things.

 

[Pendil]

Good job the Festival is in week 3 then as I feel every is forgetting with these 10 day outlooks ...haha

Looking at 14 day forecast is like trying to make money backing ante post ......oops wrong forum:applouse:

 

[opatcho]

With the prospect of it being a fairly quick ground Festival, which horses do we think will improve most for it ?? And which ones of the Bankers will struggle on better ground ??

I know they spread race events across different lines, however I cant help think the grounds staff have had more time to prepare the ground used for the festival with the previous two events being cancelled

Through Nov-Jan, I've had a bias towards winter, soft ground selections. However, this recent sunshine and forecast could well yield decent spring/watered ground

Funny how quickly things can change



Negative for
- Appreciate It - despite the field being weak, AI wins the supreme on soft-testing ground. On better ground, hmmmm there's a chance of a surprise result
- Goshen - have him going as a Cyrname, quick horse over testing ground
- Altior - Yeah, he'll be better off in the Ryanair if its quick ground
- PTKO - may get outpaced in the QMCC
- Allaho - 3 milers over quick 2 and a half, not thanks

Minor negative for
- Honeysuckle - would be better suited over soft, quicker ground may take off 1-2 lbs off her

Positive for
- Nube Negra - still has a sizable gap to close, but feel on better ground he could land a surprise, appears to be a superb jumper, if he translate that he could improve further. Then again, CPS cruising speed over decent ground could be devastating
- Bravemangame - not a fan!!! However, I can start to make a chance for him over decent ground
- Thyme Hill - feel better ground would be more of a advantage for TH than Paisley Park
- Aba - could improve for better ground
- Monkfish - proper class horse, and I think better ground could produce a Vautour like performance, maybe even better!

 

[Deleted member 4957]

charlie when do they stop you walking the dog ?
Or is there no need to do that with no spectators/set up/security....

 

[charlie]

charlie when do they stop you walking the dog ?
Or is there no need to do that with no spectators/set up/security....

Sadly I don't have the dog anymore, but I still go daily. Security is definitely tighter now than it was a month ago. Could easily just walk onto the course after Christmas but now all gates are bolted and there's ground staff AOTS.

 

[jono]

If you ever see the process in action you might be surprised, it isn't a particularly efficient rotating sprinkler system like you'd have in a garden, it's more a basic hosepipe left in a single position blowing in the wind so all the water goes in one direction, they then move this along the course an intervals, it really isn't scientific at all so when they call the official going it is more likely to differ greatly across the course which it wouldn't if it rained.

I still can't believe in this day and age racecourses don't have some sort of professional sprinkler system as well as covers that cover the entire course (these could be built into the rails and rolled out when needed).
Yes there's a cost but there's plenty of fixtures lost to waterlogging every year....

I'm actually staggered by that. :stupid:
For most tracks but considering Cheltenham is where the pinnacle of the National Hunt calendar takes place.
Another example of how racing is so far behind other elite sports

 

[The King Pimm]

I know they spread race events across different lines, however I cant help think the grounds staff have had more time to prepare the ground used for the festival with the previous two events being cancelled

Through Nov-Jan, I've had a bias towards winter, soft ground selections. However, this recent sunshine and forecast could well yield decent spring/watered ground

Funny how quickly things can change



Negative for
- Appreciate It - despite the field being weak, AI wins the supreme on soft-testing ground. On better ground, hmmmm there's a chance of a surprise result
- Goshen - have him going as a Cyrname, quick horse over testing ground
- Altior - Yeah, he'll be better off in the Ryanair if its quick ground
- PTKO - may get outpaced in the QMCC
- Allaho - 3 milers over quick 2 and a half, not thanks

Minor negative for
- Honeysuckle - would be better suited over soft, quicker ground may take off 1-2 lbs off her

Positive for
- Nube Negra - still has a sizable gap to close, but feel on better ground he could land a surprise, appears to be a superb jumper, if he translate that he could improve further. Then again, CPS cruising speed over decent ground could be devastating
- Bravemangame - not a fan!!! However, I can start to make a chance for him over decent ground
- Thyme Hill - feel better ground would be more of a advantage for TH than Paisley Park
- Aba - could improve for better ground
- Monkfish - proper class horse, and I think better ground could produce a Vautour like performance, maybe even better!

Aah bollocks, I was under the impression Goshen would improve on better ground!!

I think most of Henderson’s horses will improve for better ground from comments he’s made throughout the season. From memory Mister Fisher, Fusil Raffles, Epatante and Champ prefer better ground.

Some of Skeltons horses prefer better ground with Not Too Fuisse being good ground dependent

Does anyone know what ground Captain Guinness prefers and performs best on?

 

[The King Pimm]

Here are the latest Betfair prices -

Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Official Going

• 4/9
  Good To Soft
• 11/4
  Soft
• 7/1
  Good
• 16/1
  Heavy

They will never allow the going to be ‘good’ so I don’t know why they have it in the betting. Even if it was good they’d be rushing out the ground staff with buckets of water an hour before the off trying to soften it up. I’d love a ‘good’ going festival, favourites winning the big races and no big prices outsiders pissing on my best bets, I hate the shitty wet and miserable conditions we’ve had at the festival over the past 5 years coupled with it being cold.

 

[opatcho]

Aah bollocks, I was under the impression Goshen would improve on better ground!!

I think most of Henderson’s horses will improve for better ground from comments he’s made throughout the season. From memory Mister Fisher, Fusil Raffles, Epatante and Champ prefer better ground.

Some of Skeltons horses prefer better ground with Not Too Fuisse being good ground dependent

Does anyone know what ground Captain Guinness prefers and performs best on?

Goshen.
Hurdles. Raced 6 times over hurdles, 4 times over soft and twice on heavy. Never raced on better
Flats. Ran across all ground conditions. Best RPR over Soft (97) and Heavy (93). Good (88)

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Goshen.
Hurdles. Raced 6 times over hurdles, 4 times over soft and twice on heavy. Never raced on better
Flats. Ran across all ground conditions. Best RPR over Soft (97) and Heavy (93). Good (88)

It won’t have been a great race but he did win a good ground Brighton flat handicap by 12l...

 

[opatcho]

It won’t have been a great race but he did win a good ground Brighton flat handicap by 12l...

LOL yeah.... Brighton :tranquillity:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

LOL yeah.... Brighton :tranquillity:

There was a time the top flat trainers used to send their 3yo there before a Derby/Oaks tilt as the courses are similar, maybe the building of a 300
home council estate in the middle of the course has put them off...

 

[ComplyOrDie]

There was a time the top flat trainers used to send their 3yo there before a Derby/Oaks tilt as the courses are similar, maybe the building of a 300
home council estate in the middle of the course has put them off...

Yeah, lovely estate that is :dejection:

 

[charlie]

Beautiful here, sunny, dry.

 

[Quevega]

I'm actually staggered by that. :stupid:
For most tracks but considering Cheltenham is where the pinnacle of the National Hunt calendar takes place.
Another example of how racing is so far behind other elite sports

I am too.
Think the laying pipes in the plastic rails idea needs some work though.:highly_amused:
But I'm not a plumber.
Shall we start a thread ? :loyal:

 

[Quevega]

Goshen.
Hurdles. Raced 6 times over hurdles, 4 times over soft and twice on heavy. Never raced on better
Flats. Ran across all ground conditions. Best RPR over Soft (97) and Heavy (93). Good (88)

I personally don't think there's a reason any of the horses you've mentioned, especially Goshen won't be more than happy on Good to Soft ground, even if watered.
Most have simply not had the chance to run on it.

I remember Willie mentioning that he thinks it such an advantage over the UK runners that his string have generally all been running on Heavy ground in Ireland most of the Winter and turn up at Cheltenham and can't believe how much easier it is to run fast on better ground.
And the strength, fitness and stamina they've gained is invaluable also.

The better horses will simply be able to maintain a slightly higher pace for longer IMO.
The only danger is if the pace is moderate and something with more speed (a higher top speed but lower cruising speed) is able to lie with them, and pounce.

 

[charlie]

Part of the problem is that when the taps get turned on it doesn't irrigate the ground like rain would, the spread is inconsistent and often creates false ground which is why they always prefer nature to do the watering.
If you ever see the process in action you might be surprised, it isn't a particularly efficient rotating sprinkler system like you'd have in a garden, it's more a basic hosepipe left in a single position blowing in the wind so all the water goes in one direction, they then move this along the course an intervals, it really isn't scientific at all so when they call the official going it is more likely to differ greatly across the course which it wouldn't if it rained.

I still can't believe in this day and age racecourses don't have some sort of professional sprinkler system as well as covers that cover the entire course (these could be built into the rails and rolled out when needed).
Yes there's a cost but there's plenty of fixtures lost to waterlogging every year....

I took a picture yesterday which is quite funny and shows just how basic their watering is. Cant figure out how to compress the pic so its small enough to post here. Happily send it to you tho Ista

 

[Quevega]

I took a picture yesterday which is quite funny and shows just how basic their watering is. Cant figure out how to compress the pic so its small enough to post here. Happily send it to you tho Ista

There is a Police task force that monitors the sending and sharing of water irrigation systems.
So be careful.

And stop feeding Ista's addiction. He'll be talking about water tables next ! :victorious:

 

[charlie]

There is a Police task force that monitors the sending and sharing of water irrigation systems.
So be careful.

And stop feeding Ista's addiction. He'll be talking about water tables next ! :victorious:

hahahaha :highly_amused:

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I took a picture yesterday which is quite funny and shows just how basic their watering is. Cant figure out how to compress the pic so its small enough to post here. Happily send it to you tho Ista

Yeah I’ve seen their system charlie, a mobile tank with a large hose, does that suggest they’re already watering ?
Quevega The rails were suggestedto hold rain covers, not pipes