Triumph Hurdle 2021

[Faugheen_Machine]

Really good kotkijet. Already looking forward to the next installment:encouragement:

 

[Geordieboy83]

Horse that interests me for here is LONGCLAWfor Gordon Elliott. Won well yesterday at Down Royal and run before that at Roscommon. Long way to go obviously, but at 50/1 (56/1 boosted) with Hills added 1pt e/w.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Horse that interests me for here is LONGCLAWfor Gordon Elliott. Won well yesterday at Down Royal and run before that at Roscommon. Long way to go obviously, but at 50/1 (56/1 boosted) with Hills added 1pt e/w.

I watched that race live, he won well and could be good, but his jumping was sketchy.
Mind you so was was Goshen’s, and a lot of the other Triumph favs last year.

 

[Geordieboy83]

I watched that race live, he won well and could be good, but his jumping was sketchy.
Mind you so was was Goshen’s, and a lot of the other Triumph favs last year.

I agree, I just think at the price it is definitely worth a go, like you say could be good, remember watching Allmankind and others last year and thinking the same. Like you say.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree, I just think at the price it is definitely worth a go, like you say could be good, remember watching Allmankind and others last year and thinking the same. Like you say.

Two wins this early and a big price does make the betting finger twitch a little. :encouragement:

 

[Spectre]

He’s not for me for a couple of reasons.

Firstly the Triumph Hurdle market is not one for me to start getting involved in this early. Most picks won’t go to the Festival at all, or will end up in the Fred Winter. Very few Triumph winners have started this early. Only Countrywide Flame from memory. If they’re highly regarded they’re usually brought along slowly. I’m sure now I’ve said that, somebody will point out a hatfull of Triumph winners who had full summer campaigns. :highly_amused:

Secondly Gordon Elliott is sure to have better horses to come out. Quixillos would be one that on paper you’d expect to be better than Longclaw. And I’m sure there will be a lot more talent waiting in the wings. Significantly at this stage, a fit and well Longclaw doesn’t appear to be a high 150’s-160 horse in waiting. He feels more like a ‘strike while the iron is hot’ kind of horse. Plus we still need to see what all the big owners and stables have for the season.

All of that said, I’ve been wrong many times before. I was with Countrywide Flame! :witless: I still don’t want to get involved in the Triumph at this early stage though, unless it’s based on inside information.

 

[Geordieboy83]

He’s not for me for a couple of reasons.

Firstly the Triumph Hurdle market is not one for me to start getting involved in this early. Most picks won’t go to the Festival at all, or will end up in the Fred Winter. Very few Triumph winners have started this early. Only Countrywide Flame from memory. If they’re highly regarded they’re usually brought along slowly. I’m sure now I’ve said that, somebody will point out a hatfull of Triumph winners who had full summer campaigns. :highly_amused:

Secondly Gordon Elliott is sure to have better horses to come out. Quixillos would be one that on paper you’d expect to be better than Longclaw. And I’m sure there will be a lot more talent waiting in the wings. Significantly at this stage, a fit and well Longclaw doesn’t appear to be a high 150’s-160 horse in waiting. He feels more like a ‘strike while the iron is hot’ kind of horse. Plus we still need to see what all the big owners and stables have for the season.

All of that said, I’ve been wrong many times before. I was with Countrywide Flame! :witless: I still don’t want to get involved in the Triumph at this early stage though, unless it’s based on inside information.

I definitely see where you are coming from Spectre, I just think at the price worth a small dabble at it. I admit it is against It horsing winning being out this early. Last year winner Burning wasn’t seen Over here until around 3 Weeks before fest, also Pentland Hills the year before was out late on. As as said though big price, and it’s a small stake at this stage.

 

[Spectre]

I’d never put anyone off a horse at those kinds of prices, particularly a Gordon Elliott dual winner. The thing for me really is leaving the Triumph alone for some time yet, until either I’ve seen something special, or heard something from a source.

Quixillos has been the talking horse from the Elliott stable, and some may have jumped on already, but I think I’d need a Kotkijet compelling essay about him to convince me to back him in August.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Note to self for when this thread is 186 pages deep..

STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST

 

[Arkle]

I’m the same M.O.M leaving the triumph alone this year better value else where at this stage needle in a haystack

 

[BigChaang]

Note to self for when this thread is 186 pages deep..

STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST

If only you'd posted this last thursday M.o.M !!:dejection::highly_amused:.

 

[Kotkijet]

Since tomorrow's race at Southwell will not be previewed, I will have a look at the Triumph Hurdle markets as they currently stand.

As a quick note on the wisdom of getting involved in the markets at this stage, here is a tidier table of the dates Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3s have made their hurdling debuts over the past thirty-six renewals.

The dates shown in lime green denote a hurdling debut being made in France. Using the wayback machine, it is possible to find some archived ante-post lists. Of the recent winners whose careers began before this date, Countrywide Flame was available at 66/1 in October 2011 alongside Hi Note who is the dam of Hiconic who is the same price in contemporary lists. Peace And Co was not in the lists in October but he can be backed at 33/1 on the 11th of November. Nevertheless, it was known online that he would likely be competing in the UK as early as the 8th of August which illustrates that the ante-post lists are not at all exhaustive. Similarly, just because a horse is being listed by bookmakers, does not necessarily mean that it is sound or alive...

In terms of updates since the last summary, Nicky Henderson's Paros, who was initially installed at 16/1, has been backed in from 33/1 to 25/1 while Hell Red for Paul Nicholls has leapfrogged stablemate Monmiral in being backed to 25/1 from 40/1. Heros d'Ainay remains prominent in the betting despite there being no indication whatsoever that he will be sold to run in the UK or Ireland this season. Prunay's (unknown) Prix Aguado form was given a boost yesterday as the fourth placed Baladin de Mesc won the listed Prix des Platanes while the runner-up Jeu de Paume finished third. Regarding the unlisted horses mentioned earlier in the thread, Hades paid tribute to Busselton (Joseph O'Brien) and State Man's (unknown) Prix Wild Monarch form by winning the first three-year-old chase of Auteuil's autumn season. It has emerged that Hope You Do, winner of his sole AQPS flat race, has joined the Phillip Hobbs yard.

Four new horses have been added to the latest ante-post lists. At the time of writing, they are all known to be both alive and at National Hunt yards and two of them have already raced over hurdles in Ireland.

50/1 Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG (German official rating) 39.5 (BHA 87) RPR 81
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
Juveniles claimed out of French flat races by David Pipe has been a recent topic of discussion and one of them has found himself on the Triumph Hurdle ante-post list. Making his seasonal debut on the 17th of August, the German bred and trained Adagio ran out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. Behind him that day were four previous winners who each had official equivilant ratings exceeding 70. Adagio's sire, the 2009 German Derby winner Wiener Walzer, had his first jumps winner on Sunday when Adagio's full-sister Ad Acta won a weak maiden at Vertou. His third dam produced Arcadio and is the great-granddam of the mercurial Supreme Novice winner Labaik. He won his claimer well enough but the form has not held up thus far. He cost €25,555 after his race but he would not be the most expensive horse of his type in recent years and while Martin Pipe won a Champion Hurdle with Make A Stand, none of the eighteen horses claimed out of French races since 2011/12 has achieved a RPR exceeding 109. He looks like he could provide some fun days out for his new owners but talks of the Triumph are fanciful.

50/1 Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott f6-0-2 (84) 83 j2-2-0 (-) 125
Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
Longclaw has done little wrong in winning both of his hurdles races this season. His jumping has not been perfect but it is certainly above average for this time of year and the form of his first race has been paid compliments. He was left with very little to beat last time at Down Royal as the field was heavily depleted by a loose horse but was travelling best before the major incidents and would have been the likest winner. He has yet to be fully tested and while he has achieved nothing beyond a mid-120s rating thus far, his flat rating is less than a stone behind the best that has been brought by any Gordon Elliott's flat recruits. This is still early in the season and while the yard's Chief Justice was seen out as early as the ninth of September, most of the better horses come out in the the thick of the season and along with Quilixios already in the yard, there are probably a few more recruits to come. There can also be reservations about the US centric pedigree as while he has had no problems winning a pair of ordinary contests, seeing out the most competitive juvenile hurdles on softer ground is a different matter. It is also worth remembering that after showing decent form as a two-year-old, he was disappointing on the flat on his return and he may be given to inconsistency. At this stage, the odds on offer for Longclaw are not ridiculous cramped because he has shown that he can win races over hurdles. By the same token however, they do not appear to be overly generous given his early emergence and overall profile.

50/1 Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f7-0-5 (84) 86 j1-0-0 (-) 81
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Charlie Bassett was in the process of running a fine race on his debut at Down Royal but his effort was curtailed when he was almost taken out at the third last before being brought down at the penultimate flight. He certainly would have ran better than suggested by his RPR of 81... Noel Meade has a fantastic record with his juvenile hurdlers and wins more than his fair share of races in the division as well as improving his charges from the flat. However, while he can get useful types, he does not generally get the top class juveniles and has not won a graded race in the division since Sam Bass won at Fairyhouse in December 2011. Furthermore, Charlie Bassett is not an assured stayer on breeding and though his stamina has yet to be tested at Down Royal, he did not appear to be seeing out his races well on the flat. Charlie Bassett is capable of winning races over hurdles if last week's experiences have not soured him but he does not look like an obvious Triumph Hurdle horse.

66/1 Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (80) 89
Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
At the time of writing, Red Missile is the only horse sold at last week to appear in the Triumph Hurdle ante-post lists and is currently available at 66/1. Racing on the flat for William Haggas, Red Missile got off the mark at the sixth attempt when lengthening nicely to win a twelve-furlong Lingfield maiden by six lengths in first time cheekpieces. The third placed that day has since won a maiden of his own and the form of the two handicaps he contested this season has stood up well. Battle Of Marengo produced two winners from six juvenile hurdlers in his first crop last season including triple winner Maria Magdalena, and his sole French hurdler last season was also a winner. Notnowcato has yet to have a winning juvenile as a damsire but was a respectable sire in his own right and Red Missile's dam is a half-sister to a winner in this division. William Haggas expats, which include Cracker Factory, Park Paddocks and Prabeni, have above average figures in juvenile hurdles and 52.38% of them also show improvement for the switch between codes. Lucinda Russell has not enjoyed the greatest of successes within the division with only three winners from twenty-seven juveniles and none since Lone Foot Laddie in April 2013. Nevertheless, she has a promising type in Red Missile and while talks of the Triumph are premature, it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

 

[Istabraq]

This really is outstanding work Kotkijet.
Excellent work, much appreciated...

Ps edited original post as I made a pigs ear of what I saying

 

[Istabraq]

Useful update on the Middleham Park website re Paros

http://www.middlehamparkracing.net/horses/view,paros-by-masterstroke_345.htm

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Useful update on the Middleham Park website re Paros

http://www.middlehamparkracing.net/horses/view,paros-by-masterstroke_345.htm

What was the auction price, if they price up the horse at £302K up-front for 100% and £3000 per month from thereafter.

Racing Post has initial sale price as £22K, but that is before he ran and won.

 

[Istabraq]

I have a friend has a few shares with horses owned by Middleham Park, he’s always been happy with them and how syndicates are run.
3yo horses with the potential to win G1 prizes and compete in decent staying events on the flat won’t be cheap, even if Owners Group shareholders think their horses will win the Triumph, Champion hurdle and Gold Cup every year for an investment of about £55...

 

[Geordieboy83]

Outstanding work Kotkijet

 

[Kotkijet]

Cheers lads and thanks Istabraq for the Paros link. It is always interesting to learn of the process that goes behind the recruitment of these expensive types.

Has a follow up to yesterday's piece, here are three more French recruits who have not yet been listed in the Triumph ante-post lists. The following is not an endorsement and is solely for information purposes. Videos to the French races in question appear in the links.

Nassalam chg Gary Moore j1-0-1
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018
Since the 2011/12 season, twenty-two of the forty-seven juvenile hurdlers whose careers began with Guillaume Macaire have won during their first campaigns and.80.85% of them achieved RPRs of 108 and above which is the strongest rate of any source. Hell Red is the only Macaire graduate mentioned thus far on these pages but another is Nassalam who has joined the Gary Moore yard. Nassalam finished runner up on his sole start over hurdles and that came in Clairefontaine's Prix du Douet at the end of June. A contest for hurdling newcomers, it does not have a history much richer than a midsummer race would afford although the 2014 renewal did see Triumph winner Peace And Co and the useful Ballotin fill the first two places. Pantxoa and Vicenzo Mio are other previous winners that went on to be successful juveniles in the UK. The first five pulled clear in this year's renewal although the form is only fair at this stage with the winner finishing last in a listed race, third placed Piriac a runner-up to Saint Sam while receiving five kilos and fourth placed Mistersister was seventh behind Saint Sam before winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer (he was purchased by Toby Jones afterwards for €16,006). Gary Moore is one of the leading trainers of juvenile hurdlers in the UK and while only six of his ninety-six juveniles since 2009/10 were sourced from French Hurdle races, all of them collected prize money and half of them won two races apiece. One of them, Botox Has, was also by Dream Well whose record with juveniles is well above average on both sides of the channel. Shirocco has also made a fine start as a damsire in the division and Nassalam can count the useful filly Msassa as his half sister and his dam was a sibling of winning hurdler Mountain Fighter. There are other horses with stronger form than Nassalam but it was a promising first effort and with his profile carrying plenty of substance, it would not be a surprise to see him doing well this season.

Saint Sam bg Willie Mullins j3-2-0
Saint des Saints (Linda's Lad){19-b}(0.67) 1/0 Ladeka 2nd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2013
One of those horses with stronger form is the aforementioned Saint Sam who following a tepid debut at Dieppe, would gain victories in his next two starts. The first of those victories came at the end of June on his return to Dieppe where he put up a battling performance to win the Prix Soldat. While the field was strung out and he showed a nice attitude in winning that race, the subsequent form has not been anything special. However, his latest victory in the Prix de l'Oudon does carry more substance as he gave five kilos to runner up Piriac while third placed Horse Maha has since won at Dieppe by over five lengths while giving away three kilos. Saint des Saints is an exceptional jumps stallion who also does well with his three and four year olds while Linda's Lad has yet to have many opportunities as a damsire, he has produced three black type juveniles as a sire. Saint Sam's family is a strong one for the division. While his dam won only one of her fourteen stars over hurdles, she finished placed five times in pattern company. She is also a half sister to winning hurdler Miss Lino and to the dam of dual Grade One winning juvenile We Have A Dream. Other high class jumpers to appear on the damline are Champion Four Year Old Hurdle runner up Blood Cotil (4/3) Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil runner up Video Tape (5/2) 1995/96 French Champion Juvenile Villez (5/3) and Grade One winning Four-Year-Old and French Champion Hurdler Vaporetto (5/3). Derby third and top NH sire Presenting also appears at 5/4. Jean-Philippe Dubois has been the source of three UK/IRE juveniles thus far with two of them winning during their first seasons. Trainer Willie Mullins (Apple's Jade, Burning Victory, Footpad) needs no introduction but his Night And Day is currently his only horse on the Triumph lists at the moment. While Saint Sam has yet to produce anything definitively top class, his profile is considerably more compelling than that of his stablemate and as he has already shown himself to be a beautiful jumper of hurdles, he should be supplanting Night And Day before too long.

Siroco Jo cg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1
Hurricane Cat (Vertical Speed){4-r}(1.86) 1/1 Cyclone Jo 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2018
Paul Nicholls already has Hell Red, Monmiral and Hacker des Places on the Triumph ante-post lists but it would not take much from Siroco Jo to get quoted alongside his stablemates. Another with just the sole start, Siroco Jo finished second in the Prix de l'Orbiquet at Clairefontaine at the beginning of last month. While he was recieving weight from the first and third, the former had won last time at Le Lion d'Angers ahead of Hystery Bere while the latter had finished fourth in the listed Prix Go Ahead. Given his conspicuous inexperience he was, it was a fine debut effort to split the two and he may have won had he been quicker to get the hang of racing. Those two did not quite uphold the form in Tuesday's Listed Prix des Platanes at Auteuil but Siroco Jo still has the scope to further improve. Sire Hurricane Cat has had just the two juvenile hurdlers in the UK but one of them was the dual winning Thounder and he has a respectable record in France. Siroco Jo's full-sister won a conditions hurdle at Compiegne and his grandam was a half-sister to Prix des Drags winner Indien Bleu and decent three-year-old Dandy Bleu. Paul Nicholls follows only Nicky Henderson when it comes to juvenile hurdlers in the UK and while only three Mickaël Seror graduates have ran in the UK thus far, Call Me Lord and Fanfan du Seuil have been very decent.

 

[Kotkijet]

The next race in the UK is due to take place at Perth where Lucinda Russel's recent purchase Red Missile is among the entries and Saturday could see a rematch between Hiconic and Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen in which is generally the Triumph Hurdle of the summer. In the meantime however will be the Prix Robert Lejeune at Auteuil which is due off at 14:35 GMT tomorrow afternoon.

It is usually a stepping stone to the Grade Ones for French three-year-olds and tomorrow's renewal features the country's top three in the division by prize money. In the past, the race has been a port of call for those who would compete in juveniles on this side of the channel although as this table demonstrates, this has not been the case in recent years.

There are a couple of horses running tomorrow who are listed in the triumph markets. Baladin de Mesc is available at 33/1 with William Hills, 10bet and and Sport Nation and Raffles Face can be backed at 40/1 with Sky Bet and 33/1 with Bet365 and Unibet. However, while this is not to say that bookmakers are deceitful parasites, it should be noted that both of these horses are still trained in France. It is possible that one or two of these might end the four year hiatus and make their way to these shores but it would still be nice if these imports were confirmed before bookmakers began accepting bets on said animals.

Nevertheless, it is an interesting race in its own right and there will be some indirect clues insofar as horses who have actually been imported are concerned.

Videos of the races mentioned below can be found through the links.

Magneto, Jeu de Paume and Baladin de Mesc were first, second and fourth respectively in July's Prix Aguado and Prunay (black cap, red sleeves) would finish third on that occasion. Prunay cost €240,000 at Arqana's summer sale and he is currently available at 50/1. To this day, Prunay's new trainer has remained elusive but perhaps all will be revealed when my OJA arrives...

Two horses whose new home is publicly known are Paros and Hacker des Places and the pair were split by Jeu de Paume in a conditions hurdle at Dieppe back in May. Paros (red, white crossbelts, black cap), who currently heads the Triumph betting at 22/1 is with Nicky Henderson while Hacker des Places (maroon, gold seams) has joined Paul Nicholls and is available at 50/1.

Likely outsider Hirta also has form which ties in with UK imports as he was fourth on his debut in the Prix Rush behind a pair of Paul Nicholls recruits in Monmiral (dark blue, white cap) and Hell Red (grey horse). The former is currently priced at 33/1 while the latter is 25/1.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If Munir/Souede don't already have a top juvenile prospect in training over here (unsure if they do or not?) then they may contemplate bringing Raffles Face (who runs against Magneto today) over, as a suggestion, anyway.

Magneto is the current star of the juvenile season in France, though it is still very early days, and he has already finished behind Raffles Face and has to give weight away today, but that was on debut and clearly improved since then.