To Win 'Any Race' 2019

[charlie]

SHE hopefully runs on Friday and wins. Looks a proper test to he dropped into. So will know our fate early.

Haha so I'm off to a good start here with trainer wrong and sex wrong

 

[JackieMoon33]

SHE hopefully runs on Friday and wins. Looks a proper test to he dropped into. So will know our fate early.

If you’re building a book then she needs to be backed but as I don’t have the time or resources, I will be dodging her and sticking with my original two: Coeur Sublime and Adjali.

I can’t have the sire of Never Adapt as he’s still yet to produce anything of note in either codes. The one horse that looked to have potential (Charli Parcs) had a very questionable temperament.

 

[Scooby91]

If you’re building a book then she needs to be backed but as I don’t have the time or resources, I will be dodging her and sticking with my original two: Coeur Sublime and Adjali.

I can’t have the sire of Never Adapt as he’s still yet to produce anything of note in either codes. The one horse that looked to have potential (Charli Parcs) had a very questionable temperament.

Personally added and took the 33s any race knowing iv still got a fred winter bet. But hoping she bolts up then my intention will be to steal the 25s ew to add to my win bet.

 

[Joleg]

SHE hopefully runs on Friday and wins. Looks a proper test to he dropped into. So will know our fate early.

That looks a real test for first time out

 

[Kevloaf]

With Brewin'upastorm being "the" talking horse for Olly Murphy, and Thomas Darby being a nice winner for Olly Murphy already.... is 22/1 about Brewin' a decent price at this stage?

Thomas Darby gets a 'nice' write up in OJA - and was still green but won impressively....

but Olly Murphy is telling anyone that'll listen that Brewin' is the horse he's most excited about.

It has to just be a batter or time before he starts picking up festival winners.

I have to say, I am really tempted at this stage to add 2 pts e/w at 22/1 -

YTou have to think he was better than the 4th behind Acey Milan too, because the win over Portrush Ted worked out so well (subsequent G2 winner)

but am I getting carried away?

 

[BigChaang]

I backed Thomas Derby, and Dinons last friday , Both won nicely i thought.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I was really impressed with Thomas Darby too BC. Should improve for the step up in trip and I think that race will work out nicely going forward.

 

[jono]

I was impressed with The Worlds End today at Chepstow. Now McGinty (Rory Delarghy recently flagged him up one of his dark horses for the season) looks a decent yardstick and he was brushed aside pretty easily and finished 14 lengths behind the winner. He has that extra season over hurdles to overcome but I couldn't fault his performance today, with his jumping standing out most.

There's a heap of exciting staying novice chasers this year but you imagine connections will aim for the RSA with him (can't see anyway he goes back in trip) especially as they will more than likely feel aggrieved they never got conditions to suit at any stage last season. William Hill have him at 25/1 still.

But he's not at the top of my shortlist for the race so the fact Coral (and Ladbrokes) are offering the same 25/1 for any race appeals as for me he could be a very exciting runner in the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one of the festival. Novices have a good record and Tom George and Adrian Heskin could have another great chance after narrowly missing out with Singlefarmpayment 2 years ago

Tom George said this after his win today...

“Obviously there was pressure on. We just wanted him to have a nice round of jumping,” George told At The Races.

“It all went to plan. He’s a very high-class horse. Last season was a nightmare for him on the heavy ground all winter.

“He was only beaten seven and a half lengths in the Stayers’ Hurdle on ground he really hated. I was really proud of him last year. He didn’t like the ground, but he was still featuring not far off the best.

“Now we’re going novice chasing and we can pick the best tracks and better ground. Good to soft, softish ground is fine, but we don’t want the heavy stuff.

“Adrian has got to know the horse well. He did some schooling with him over fences before he went out in the field.

“We’ve been struggling on the grass this time round, but what we did last season did the job for him and we’ve been doing plenty on the sand surfaces recently.”

Connections have yet to make a plan, but George might consider going to Newbury, which stages the Grade Two Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase (formerly known as the Worcester) on December 1.

“We’ll have to wait and see. He’s won his beginners’ chase now, so you’re going into the novices,” said the Slad handler.

“I’ll have a chat with Max (McNeill, owner). Maybe Newbury might be the next port of call for him. It might be a nice track for him.

“He was a high-class horse over hurdles. He might make a good chaser as well.”

 

[Quevega]

I was impressed with The Worlds End today at Chepstow. Now McGinty (Rory Delarghy recently flagged him up one of his dark horses for the season) looks a decent yardstick and he was brushed aside pretty easily and finished 14 lengths behind the winner. He has that extra season over hurdles to overcome but I couldn't fault his performance today, with his jumping standing out most.

There's a heap of exciting staying novice chasers this year but you imagine connections will aim for the RSA with him (can't see anyway he goes back in trip) especially as they will more than likely feel aggrieved they never got conditions to suit at any stage last season. William Hill have him at 25/1 still.

But he's not at the top of my shortlist for the race so the fact Coral (and Ladbrokes) are offering the same 25/1 for any race appeals as for me he could be a very exciting runner in the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one of the festival. Novices have a good record and Tom George and Adrian Heskin could have another great chance after narrowly missing out with Singlefarmpayment 2 years ago

Tom George said this after his win today...

seems too high in weights for handicaps (based on hurdle mark) later in season, and not good enough for a competitive grade one.
Most surprising thing to me watching him today was how high a knee action it has, but they're convinced it wants good ground. Form seems to back it up,
but dem knees was high

em

 

[jono]

seems too high in weights for handicaps (based on hurdle mark) later in season, and not good enough for a competitive grade one.
Most surprising thing to me watching him today was how high a knee action it has, but they're convinced it wants good ground. Form seems to back it up,
but dem knees was high

em

Need to watch again regarding his knee action but it's not an area I excel on i'll admit so could well have passed me by.
I don't see him as being too high in the handicap though, particularly for the Ultima:

Shantou Flyer 2nd - 152
Beware the Bear 4th - 150
Un Temps Pour Tour 1st - 155
Noble Endeavour 4th - 154
Holywell 2nd - 153
Morning Assembly 4th - 150

Rated 155 over hurdles would mean for for that specific race you wouldn't want him to be rated any higher over fences but if he ends up being in the high 150's then he more than deserves his place in the RSA. And in all likelyhood he will have faced at least one of the English RSA challengers along the way which will either push him towards the top of the market if he were to win or push him towards a handicap and keep his mark down if he gets put in his place.

 

[BigChaang]

Did'nt World's end have an injury early on last season and they put him away for this season ???.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Ran and won today BC

Edit: might have misunderstood the post!

 

[Kevloaf]

Did'nt World's end have an injury early on last season and they put him away for this season ???.

He ran at Cheltenham in the Stayers hurdle and finished 7th (7L behind Penhill) then ran at Aintree and was 4th 23L behind Identity Thief ....


His record with Good in the description reads:

11F14 (F was in the Albert Bartlett and these are the in race comments - Held up, rapid headway after 3 out, upsides when fell 2 out..

His form WITHOUT Good in the going:
1318474

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

I wondered if Worlds End would be one for the 3m handicap on Day 1

 

[Kevloaf]

I wondered if Worlds End would be one for the 3m handicap on Day 1

Yeah I think jono thinks the same and it'd be my preference for him at this stage ... but he may well prove better than that

 

[Quevega]

Need to watch again regarding his knee action but it's not an area I excel on i'll admit so could well have passed me by.
I don't see him as being too high in the handicap though, particularly for the Ultima:

Shantou Flyer 2nd - 152
Beware the Bear 4th - 150
Un Temps Pour Tour 1st - 155
Noble Endeavour 4th - 154
Holywell 2nd - 153
Morning Assembly 4th - 150

Rated 155 over hurdles would mean for for that specific race you wouldn't want him to be rated any higher over fences but if he ends up being in the high 150's then he more than deserves his place in the RSA. And in all likelyhood he will have faced at least one of the English RSA challengers along the way which will either push him towards the top of the market if he were to win or push him towards a handicap and keep his mark down if he gets put in his place.

Fair point with the ultima marks (past runners), but on 155 would be near top weight most years and I would always tend to look for something well handicapped (i don't think he's currently well handicapped on 155), although it has become very compressed in recent years anyhow I suppose.
The knee thing just surprised me as the form is clearly better on goodish ground

On closer inspection of his race stats and the ground conditions you could take a different view.

Kev's GOOD ground stats seem to include some poetic license so how about looking at it like this.
ignoring his point to point run
when there was soft ground in going description.
His novice season read like this
13111
When Good ground only
F1

He ended his novice campaign rated 149 beating a horse rated 142 and several other lower rated horses off level weights.
He ran in GRADED races all last season on mainly soft/heavy ground that the connections said didn't suit.
And was beaten pretty well on each occasion (some may say outclassed). But somehow he finished the season with a rating of 155.
In a nutshell, what I'm saying is I don't fancy him being a winner at the festival.

 

[Kevloaf]

He ran at Cheltenham in the Stayers hurdle and finished 7th (7L behind Penhill) then ran at Aintree and was 4th 23L behind Identity Thief ....


His Good ground record reads:

11F1 (F was in the Albert Bartlett and these are the in race comments - Held up, rapid headway after 3 out, upsides when fell 2 out..

His form WITHOUT Good in the going:
1318474

On closer inspection of his race stats and the ground conditions you could take a different view.

Kev's GOOD ground stats seem to include some poetic license so how about looking at it like this.
ignoring his point to point run
when there was soft ground in going description.
His novice season read like this
13111
When Good ground only
F1

He ended his novice campaign rated 149 beating a horse rated 142 and several other lower rated horses off level weights.
He ran in GRADED races all last season on mainly soft/heavy ground that the connections said didn't suit.
And was beaten pretty well on each occasion (some may say outclassed). But somehow he finished the season with a rating of 155.
In a nutshell, what I'm saying is I don't fancy him being a winner at the festival.

Where did I use any poetic licence?

My post doesn't pass any comment at all ... it is just facts isn't it?

 

[Kevloaf]

If there is GOOD in the going description, his form is 11F141 in his career and I think the F was a big form plus.

At Cheltenham with GOOD ground in the description I think he's better than a 28/1 shot?

 

[Quevega]

If there is GOOD in the going description, his form is 11F141 in his career and I think the F was a big form plus.

At Cheltenham with GOOD ground in the description I think he's better than a 28/1 shot?

I think some readers may have been misled with the word GOOD and

 

[Kevloaf]

I think some readers may have been misled with the word GOOD and

I might be taking this the wrong way, but why would I be attempting to mislead any readers?

His form WITHOUT Good in the going:
1318474

I think that is a perfectly fair way to look at a horses form and a perfectly valid manipulation/analysis of his record. A win percentage of 28.57%

11F141 when Good is included in the description is a win percentage of 57.14%



I don't see how it is misleading to say that this horse is better on good ground?