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this week's entries

Exar Essay said:
Lawlor's of Naas early entries are out. A couple of notable inclusions/omissions.

No Kilgame, which is a slight surprise. Perhaps he's being kept to 2 miles this year. We may learn more tomorrow.

Salvator Mundi and Kel Histoire are included which implies that they are at least in consideration for the mid-trip. I appreciate that Willie block books, but he hasn't included all of his good novice hurdlers here. No Kaid D'authie, Redemption Day, Irancy, for example.

https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2025_ONOR004.PDF?id=1&v=20241212024502
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I'm thinking that running in the Lawlors of Naas is a negative for horses this year. Poor RPRs so far and not enough runs for horses.
Only 2 winners in the last 7 years came from the Lawlors and both horses had posted 142+ by around this time of year, Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger.
None of the horses entered are near that at the minute. Salvator Mundi (135)and Supasundae (137) from May and March are the closest and neither will go to Naas.
Most horses will be going for there 2nd run at Naas which is one less than Envoi Allen and bob Olinger.
Then only having 2 runs over hurdles before Cheltenham is a negative for experience.
 
OffTheBridle said:
I'm thinking that running in the Lawlors of Naas is a negative for horses this year. Poor RPRs so far and not enough runs for horses.
Only 2 winners in the last 7 years came from the Lawlors and both horses had posted 142+ by around this time of year, Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger.
None of the horses entered are near that at the minute. Salvator Mundi (135)and Supasundae (137) from May and March are the closest and neither will go to Naas.
Most horses will be going for there 2nd run at Naas which is one less than Envoi Allen and bob Olinger.
Then only having 2 runs over hurdles before Cheltenham is a negative for experience.
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Fair point. I wondered if the field would be weaker this year too, with many not having been seen yet due to the ground. I think most of Willies will only have 2 runs before this year.

Out of interest, what makes you think Supersundae wouldn’t run?
 
Exar Essay said:
Fair point. I wondered if the field would be weaker this year too, with many not having been seen yet due to the ground. I think most of Willies will only have 2 runs before this year.

Out of interest, what makes you think Supersundae wouldn’t run?
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My thinking is if Supasundae runs at Naas I can't have him for anything so thats why i don't see him running there. He hasn't enough runs and if he runs after Naas its a negative going on past Lawlor's with Envoi and Bob going straight to the fez.
Run him in 2m at Christmas in Leopardstown, flop he is handicap horse, finish in top 2 he is still on for a graded race at Cheltenham, then go 2m at DRF and up him for Ballymore. That's his best route to the Fez for me.
 
Lobos said:
Wouldn't disagree and that's how I view it but 50/1 is just wrong especially where a Mullins Novice Hurdler is concerned and is worth covering. Over the years his best tend to end up in the mid trip race. For me it more often than not turns out to be the softer race to win.
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Yeah, 50 is worth taking as a Just in case type bet.
Ive done it…….Just in case!!
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Yeah, 50 is worth taking as a Just in case type bet.
Ive done it…….Just in case!!
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I did half stakes on it a while back for the same reason. It's not uncommon for Willies to need a run and not uncommon for them to be beaten first time out, it's also not uncommon for Willie to say something like 'maybe he needs a trip' and then be slashed into 12s :biggrin-new: it's well worth having at that price just to cover the decent prices for the supreme at this stage
 
Lobos said:
Wouldn't disagree and that's how I view it but 50/1 is just wrong especially where a Mullins Novice Hurdler is concerned and is worth covering. Over the years his best tend to end up in the mid trip race. For me it more often than not turns out to be the softer race to win.
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That’s not true now is it mate?

Recently possibly but I’d say it’s more supreme than Ballymore over the years.
 
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Craigy14 said:
That’s not true now is it mate?

Recently possibly but I’d say it’s more supreme than Ballymore over the years.
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No, that doesn’t appear to be the case. IEP was his best novice hurdler. But going in to the festival, Favile Vega was his no.1.

However, I genuinely believe that given his embarrassment of riches, the similarity of races, and the ‘uniqueness’ of Irish maidens, Willie has very little idea what trip any of his will ultimately run over until at least after Xmas. I think the usefulness of trends is diminishing in this respect.

I’ve taken the view this year that I’ll cover for both races in the hope that if the horse runs well, it’ll shorten for both and I can trade out once I’m in a position to make a decision on an ultimate target.
 
Craigy14 said:
That’s not true now is it mate?

Recently possibly but I’d say it’s more supreme than Ballymore over the years.
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Ummmmm, dunno really. Close id say but that's a discussion for another time. The main point is that 50/1 is too big to ignore. I tried to dismiss backing him for the Ballymore but couldn't as I ran out of excuses.
 
Exar Essay said:
No, that doesn’t appear to be the case. IEP was his best novice hurdler. But going in to the festival, Favile Vega was his no.1.

However, I genuinely believe that given his embarrassment of riches, the similarity of races, and the ‘uniqueness’ of Irish maidens, Willie has very little idea what trip any of his will ultimately run over until at least after Xmas. I think the usefulness of trends is diminishing in this respect.

I’ve taken the view this year that I’ll cover for both races in the hope that if the horse runs well, it’ll shorten for both and I can trade out once I’m in a position to make a decision on an ultimate target.
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Yeah agree with that mate, I think most of his better novices are suited to both races. There will be the odd horse that ‘has’ to be kept to 2m or the intermediate but not often. A lot of the time horses have ran over 2m and went Ballymore. We already know WPM lets them do their talking on the track, with regards to performance and how they suit the trip.
 
Lobos said:
Ummmmm, dunno really. Close id say but that's a discussion for another time. The main point is that 50/1 is too big to ignore. I tried to dismiss backing him for the Ballymore but couldn't as I ran out of excuses.
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Agree with that mate, if you fancy him for the Supreme then you have to cover for the Ballymore imo.

Which reminds me :encouragement::biggrin-new:
 
Karoline Banbou declared

Majborough declared for Monday also, along with Lecky Watson, Blizzard of Oz, Shanbally Kid and Slade Steel.

Karbau declared against shufttle the deck
 
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darlojim said:
Karoline Banbou declared

Majborough declared for Monday also, along with Lecky Watson, Blizzard of Oz, Shanbally Kid and Slade Steel.

Karbau declared against shufttle the deck
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Go on the Shuffler! Prep race before a possible tilt at the Lawlors?
 
darlojim said:
Karoline Banbou declared

Majborough declared for Monday also, along with Lecky Watson, Blizzard of Oz, Shanbally Kid and Slade Steel.

Karbau declared against shufttle the deck
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Really looking forward to seeing Slade Steel back out again. He'll come on a ton from his last run. Decent race. Great to see Rach back on board as well.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Peaky Boy goes again at Cheltenham on Saturday in another novice handicap, this time over 3m1f. He certainly looked like he'd handle a step up in trip after his winning debut, but this will be a real test. The shire horse Hillcrest carries top weight but Peaky Boy has to give weight to the rest of the field that includes plenty of progressive types.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...kie-moon-horses-to-follow?p=467717#post467717
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Not good enough from PB to be a contender for main honours. He’d have had to been winning that in my opinion, even though he was giving weight all round. He jumped well in the main apart from top of the hill. They could keep him quiet now and aim for the Turners handicap instead.
 
Beginners Chase 2m 4f
Blizzard Of Oz (Danny) is having his first run over fences. He jumps alright and hopefully this will be his game.

Lecky Watson (Paul) is also making his chasing debut. He jumps well and brings a good level of hurdling form to the table. He has been working well at home and should be a big player here.

Lombron (Sean O’Keeffe) has been going well on the gallops but might need softer ground and a longer trip.

Shanbally Kid (Brian Hayes) has chasing experience but his jumping needs to improve an awful lot.

4YO Maiden Hurdle 2m 3f

Karbau (Paul) is by in-form sire Cokoriko. He won a flat AQPS race in France and has been schooling and working very well. We are hoping he can make a winning start over hurdles.

Mares Maiden Hurdle 2 Miles

Baby Kate (Brian Hayes) has decent bumper form but her lack of hurdling experience could be a concern.

Karoline Banbou (Mark Walsh) had very good form on the flat in France and we’ve been very happy with her work at home. We are really looking forward to seeing how she gets on today.

Bumper 2 Miles

Kara De Thaix (Patrick) is a lovely type who is having her first run today. She’s been going well enough at home to give a good account.
 
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Shuffle The Deck runs in the 13.30 at Naas today 2m3f. This is the same trip as on debut when he was third in a decent maiden. That day he was ridden rather tenderly so I'm expecting him to go closer today, although I'm not sure how good Willie's French recruit could be. There hasn't been much chatter about the Mullins horse although he is currently favourite, but maybe the Shuffler can get the win with race fitness on his side. Shuffle The Deck is entered in the Lawlors of Naas, which would look the right sort of race for him, but that will hinge on today's performance and whether the turnaround is too tight.

https://www.fatjockey.com/forum/fat...kie-moon-horses-to-follow?p=463352#post463352
 
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