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The Oaks 2020

Middle_Of_March said:
I’m very close to having a decent bet at 9/4 on Frankly Darling here. I just think she’s a superstar in waiting.

And whilst that’s only a gut feeling based on the two starts this season, I think the favourite is definitely beatable and is making the price of FD look really tempting.

If Love didn’t run for whatever reason, what price would FD be? 13/8 I would hazard a guess at. Not that there’s any reason Love won’t run but I’m just thinking she’s definitely one I want to take on with a potential superstar.
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I agree MOM, I took her on at Royal Ascot and Laid her. I just couldn’t have her all weather win (though it looked impressive) over the classic trial form. Ended up with egg on my face and money out of my pocket. I’m truly a believer that she’s the best 3yo John Gosden has got. FD will definitely be a bet for me this weekend at 9/4. Very jealous of the fancy prices some have but well done
 
Any reason you're so keen to take Love on? She has the best form going in to the race.
 
archie said:
You appear to be making the rookie error of relying on the RP sub-editor's headline. Of course he knew the relative value of the races but anyone who feels robbed because an entry doesn't take up an engagement should reflect on their betting strategy. AOB is simply trying to maximise his return from the two races and that's his job.
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If I don't suffer a Rule 4 then I don't mind where it runs as I don't fancy it for either race.

Perhaps O'Brien liked the article about as much as you did as it seems to have disappeared for some reason. If it is still around perhaps someone could post it to confirm whether I made a 'rookie error' or indeed there were some trainer quotes which could very easily be taken for moaning about prize money.
 
This may have had something to do with it coming down.

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Thanks Kev. That's exactly how I saw it.
 
Kevloaf said:
Any reason you're so keen to take Love on? She has the best form going in to the race.
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The form is very suspect from the 1000G for all she bolted in? Nothing done much since? Some of the main protaganists didn't stay?

On the other hand, given her pedigree you'd imagine she'll improve for the step up in trip!
 
jack1092 said:
The form is very suspect from the 1000G for all she bolted in? Nothing done much since? Some of the main protaganists didn't stay?

On the other hand, given her pedigree you'd imagine she'll improve for the step up in trip!
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Maybe so, but easier than usual to forgive the horses running since as they'd be shorter turnarounds that normal so I wouldn't bash her form with that too much. I was probing why people are so keen to take Love on really.



Given the prices some people have on Frankly Darling there is no chance I'd taker at at current odds, happy to just watch. If one of those two wins, they'll be a big of a flag bearer for the flat season so that's interesting enough.


I'm starting off behind as Trefoil was a flop and I backed Domino Darling ante post, so I give up :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
This may have had something to do with it coming down.

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Shame we couldn't actually see the whole article. Someone in the game defending someone in the game that never happens does it? Personally, even by the couple of lines here I am quite happy to stand with my original comment. If you were happy with the prize money at Epsom why would you draw such obvious attention to it and then say one horse is going elsewhere when you already knew the differences?

By the way if those were not the declarations as I suggested when are the final declarations?
 
jack1092 said:
The form is very suspect from the 1000G for all she bolted in? Nothing done much since? Some of the main protaganists didn't stay?

On the other hand, given her pedigree you'd imagine she'll improve for the step up in trip!
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I always thought of her as primarily an Oaks horse, who would run in the 1000 Guineas, as AOB often likes two hits (or more) at Classics for his better horses.

Two full sisters were definitely 1M4F and above performers in the last couple of years. She did well to do what she did at 2 c/w those two.

LOVE Breeding
7th foal; sister to winners Flattering (1m2f/1m4f inc Group 3; RPR 104) and Peach Tree (7f-1m6f inc 2yo/Group 3; 104), half-sister to three sprint winners notably Lucky Kristale (6f inc 2yo Group 2; 110); dam maiden from 6f-1m (58).
 
Saxon Warrior said:
I always thought of her as primarily an Oaks horse, who would run in the 1000 Guineas, as AOB often likes two hits (or more) at Classics for his better horses.

Two full sisters were definitely 1M4F and above performers in the last couple of years. She did well to do what she did at 2 c/w those two.

LOVE Breeding
7th foal; sister to winners Flattering (1m2f/1m4f inc Group 3; RPR 104) and Peach Tree (7f-1m6f inc 2yo/Group 3; 104), half-sister to three sprint winners notably Lucky Kristale (6f inc 2yo Group 2; 110); dam maiden from 6f-1m (58).
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Yep Saxon, i know i always had her down as one to oppose possibly for the Guineas and improve for the step up. However, i do question the 1000G form quite a bit. Kev has a point they were backing up quick, but i don't think she's beaten a whole pile there. We will soon see though!
 
kinloch brae said:
Shame we couldn't actually see the whole article. Someone in the game defending someone in the game that never happens does it? Personally, even by the couple of lines here I am quite happy to stand with my original comment. If you were happy with the prize money at Epsom why would you draw such obvious attention to it and then say one horse is going elsewhere when you already knew the differences?

By the way if those were not the declarations as I suggested when are the final declarations?
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Surely a big operation like theirs is going to multi enter horses in classics right up until declarations are required, just in case something happens to one or two of the protagonists. The headline was very misleading once you read the full article.
I thought the declarations were today as it's 72 hours, but has it gone back to 48 hours now ???
 
Kevloaf said:
Any reason you're so keen to take Love on? She has the best form going in to the race.
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- Stepping up half a mile in trip
- Had the run of the race in the Guineas
- The Guineas form looks weak for all it is a group 1
- Beaten in half her starts in her career
- Every horse has their price and 11/10 just seems marginally short

Combine that with the belief that I have that FD is a bit special, and I’m very much of the opinion that FD is a cracking bet here.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
- Stepping up half a mile in trip
- Had the run of the race in the Guineas
- The Guineas form looks weak for all it is a group 1
- Beaten in half her starts in her career
- Every horse has their price and 11/10 just seems marginally short

Combine that with the belief that I have that FD is a bit special, and I’m very much of the opinion that FD is a cracking bet here.
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-Other than it being unknown, the additional step up is hard to knock her with. Guineas winners do fine in Oaks/Derby's and her breeding wouldn't worry you? In fact, I've backed her for the St Leger.:highly_amused:
-It may look weak, but she won it really well, and Frankly Darling's form isn't exactly red hot is it? She beat a couple of Aidan's 1.75L?
-Beaten in half her starts, being trained by Aidan O'Brien? There literally cannot be another trainer who has a better and more proven record with his fillies and mares that have busy schedules?! She is definitely a better horse this year than last year and I wouldn't assume she's a flash-in-the-pan.
-While 11/10 is tight that doesn't mean 15/8 for the 2nd fav is good value?

I'm convinced you'd be able to find a better 15/8 shot any day :p





Good luck though pal, I'm not on anything and my 'tip' isn't even running so I'll back down. :highly_amused:
 
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Kevloaf said:
-Other than it being unknown, the additional step up is hard to knock her with. Guineas winners do fine in Oaks/Derby's and her breeding wouldn't worry you? In fact, I've backed her for the St Leger.:highly_amused:
-It may look weak, but she won it really well, and Frankly Darling's form isn't exactly red hot is it? She beat a couple of Aidan's 1.75L?
-Beaten in half her starts, being trained by Aidan O'Brien? There literally cannot be another trainer who has a better and more proven record with his fillies and mares that have busy schedules?! She is definitely a better horse this year than last year and I wouldn't assume she's a flash-in-the-pan.
-While 11/10 is tight that doesn't mean 15/8 for the 2nd fav is good value?

I'm convinced you'd be able to find a better 15/8 shot any day :p





Good luck though pal, I'm not on anything and my 'tip' isn't even running so I'll back down. :highly_amused:
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Well she’s 15/8 now but she was 9/4 when I posted to be fair.

The 1 and 3/4 length win at Ascot was definitely more impressive than that official margin suggests. In fact, if Frankly Darling wasn’t a Gosden horse, I’d be backing her for the Arc. However, being in the same yard as enable means I’m not too sure that they’d run her this year. Perhaps one for the 2021 Arc but that does seem a long way a way considering she’s not even won the Oaks (YET).
 
I don't see where the pace is going to come from and it could easily turn out to be a case of speed over stamina which would suit the front three. Hopefully, one of the outsiders will take a chance but it is doubtful. I could even see Dettori on the front end setting a dawdle.

As regards Frankly Darling other than being a little keen early she had the perfect trip in the Ribblesdale. Kicking from the front end off a slow pace. If anything you would be looking to upgrade the second but whichever way you want to look at it that race was more about speed than stamina.
 
If Frankie Detorri wasn't so annoyingly good, Ennistymon (7/1) and Passion (25/1) would be pretty good each way bets (and the outsider of the whole field Bharani Star, although I'd be less excited by her)

At the prices you'd think Frankly Darling has absolutely slaughtered the two Aidan O'Brien horses mentioned above... she might be way better than them but I have to agree the ride she got was absolutely ideal and I wouldn't be amazed if that isn't a fair reflection of all the horses abilities.


The problem is there is nothing to stop that happening again. You'd be confident Frankie gets first run again. I can't back Frankly Darling at near 2/1 though when I know people have 50/1. I just can't :highly_amused: Good luck to everyone on her.


Love brings in a completlely different formline but I couldn't be backing her at the price she is - there are better even money shots every week than Love in this. I'll kind of cheer her on though as I'm on for the St Leger... but I would back Frankly Darling over he if I had to be on one of the two.


I haven't got a clue how good Gold Wand is, been aware of her since debut and won on reappearance but I wasn't blown away with that run and could have taken much bigger prices and haven't so I doubt I will.

Queen Daenerys doesn't interest me at all. I backed Trefoil in the face that Run Wild won and they both had no chance and Run Wild is unlikely to be the best of the Gosden fillies so I can ignore her. Tiempa Vuela beaten in that same race so no interest.





Pffft. Frankie, on a Frankel, called Frankly Darling - wins this and then rides The Derby favourite... the King.

Might just put the mug double on and stop wasting my time :highly_amused:
 
I think Bharani Star is overpriced myself Kev, IF that Frankly Darling form stands up. Barely much between her and Passion, got 66's and still 50's available, double (in a place) and three times the price of Passion.

Big question mark is it could be likely that if the top 2 perform to their expected levels they will all be vying for just one place. Guess I'm hoping for Love to flop, despite finding this unlikely :highly_amused:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I think Bharani Star is overpriced myself Kev, IF that Frankly Darling form stands up. Barely much between her and Passion, got 66's and still 50's available, double (in a place) and three times the price of Passion.

Big question mark is it could be likely that if the top 2 perform to their expected levels they will all be vying for just one place. Guess I'm hoping for Love to flop, despite finding this unlikely :highly_amused:
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Yeah, I think she got a very fortunate passage so was closer to Passion that she'd be if all things were equal... At 50's I'm not in any rush now... probably be 80/1 at some point between now and then and I'll have another think
 
Is there a chance that FD goes off favourite? They continue to get closer in the market.
 
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