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The Lexus Melbourne Cup 2018

BigChaang

BigChaang

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well G'day .,
Tuesday the 6th of November, this year is Melbourne cup day.
(the race is usually run on the first Tuesday of Nov ). My picks are ...
1. Withold @ 14-1 . think a few of us on here have this one ( and at better prices ).
2. Latrobe @ 25-1 . winning trainer last year.( and i backed it ! ).
3. Jaameh @ 33-1 . pure guesswork.
4. Rostropovich @ 50-1 . joey's dad trains this one .
5. Thinkin Big @ 200-1. Trained by Gai waterhouse ( top aussie Trainer) .
Only small bet's for a bit of fun in " The Race that Stop's a Nation "
And finally ., Apologies - it's now the Lexus Melbourne cup , i just saw.
 
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I've got slightly more on Withhold than I'm comfortable with at the moment. It looks unlikely that he'll get in without running in the Geelong Cup next Wednesday but I'd rather they took the gamble of hoping he could sneak in without a run. A tough race less than two weeks before the big day isn't going to help him at all.

Good luck BC:encouragement:
 
Isn't it staggering that Yucatan is fav. I think Kevin Blake summed it up the best when he was saying that horse has been campaigned openly and we have some europeans going over there with CLEARLY something in hand.

The 'European 1-2-3' special or anything around that might be worth looking at when it comes around
 
Kevloaf said:
Isn't it staggering that Yucatan is fav. I think Kevin Blake summed it up the best when he was saying that horse has been campaigned openly and we have some europeans going over there with CLEARLY something in hand.

The 'European 1-2-3' special or anything around that might be worth looking at when it comes around
Click to expand...

I couldn't believe he was fav when I checked earlier. A great shout with the European clean sweep Kev
 
Woud'nt have thought of a European 1'2'3. .- will look out for that :encouragement:
 
Thinkin big won a group 3 today. B365 have it at 50-1 now .coral still 200-1. ,
still be an outsider though i think , for the M.cup.
 
Withhold declared for the Geelong on Wednesday morning. 2/1 is available and, even though this trip is on the short side, he should still swat these aside.

If he doesn't win he is very unlikely to get a run in the Melbourne Cup
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Withhold declared for the Geelong on Wednesday morning. 2/1 is available and, even though this trip is on the short side, he should still swat these aside.

If he doesn't win he is very unlikely to get a run in the Melbourne Cup
Click to expand...

You tempted FM?

I'm on like you for the MC - could win my stake back at least? :)
 
Kevloaf said:
You tempted FM?

I'm on like you for the MC - could win my stake back at least? :)
Click to expand...

Like you, I don't rate the Aussie middle distance horses so I'm tempted to get involved.

I'll be up to watch before work on Wednesday at the very least.
 
I'm a big Withhold fan and I'd be hugely disappointed if he couldn't win this.
 
BigChaang said:
Thinkin big won a group 3 today. B365 have it at 50-1 now .coral still 200-1. ,
still be an outsider though i think , for the M.cup.
Click to expand...

Thinkin Big is 9-4 favourite for the Victorian Derby on saturday , so unlikely to feature in the M.cup .
 
FM, slightly worries (as I am) about this chance of 2nd place being good enough for Withhold at 6am?

They are seemingly going to play a VERY clever game to win or not be far away to only just creep up enough.



If ius giving me a helluva lot of confidence that they think he's got loads in hand though!
 
“We thought we were about 50-50 [to get in the Melbourne Cup] if we didn’t run, so there’s still a chance he’d get in if he doesn’t win, and even if he’s second the prize-money he’d collect would move him up two spaces above some of the other horses on 53kg, but we’re hoping for a very good run and we’d be disappointed if he’s not bang there.”


That has stopped me slightly.... I hope they aren't trying to be too clever!
 
Kevloaf said:
“We thought we were about 50-50 [to get in the Melbourne Cup] if we didn’t run, so there’s still a chance he’d get in if he doesn’t win, and even if he’s second the prize-money he’d collect would move him up two spaces above some of the other horses on 53kg, but we’re hoping for a very good run and we’d be disappointed if he’s not bang there.”


That has stopped me slightly.... I hope they aren't trying to be too clever!
Click to expand...

He's a straightforward ride so I'd imagine he'll be up with the pace and try and stretch them off the bend.

He's up to 33 in the list now and I'm not sure I can see 7 that would drop out, never mind 9. He really needs to win imo.
 
The main worry for me as far as Withold is concerned is the booking of SDS for the ride. I think he's a brilliant jockey but not always the best in a big field, if any other horse infringes on his line he's always the first to snatch up, so you have to hope he finds a clear line, not always easy if you're trying to save ground on that sweeping bend.
 
Well it's fair to say that wasn't the plan. I expected him to travel much better than that but he was being niggled at down the back straight. The Melbourne Cup dream is dead:sorrow:
 
Chapman has just said that he broke a blood vessel.
 
Matt Chapman making himself popular in Oz too this week !!!.
 
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