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The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Blacko is attracting the early day money.

He seems to be under a lot of posters radar.
 
Added Blacko last night because Hugh Taylor is better than me.
 
Kevloaf said:
Added Blacko last night because Hugh Taylor is better than me.
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Kev, in all honesty just how many bets do you reckon to have struck at the festival, I am really keen to know because i operate at the complete opposite end of the spectrum with very few bets but hard hitting for my level.
 
Blacko put up by quite a few tipsters yesterday.
 
20s into 5s! Aramax and Mick Pastor are value now. Looks like Blacko, Tronador and Palladium are all the rage.
 
Would davy really be on Gordons second string ?
 
Redbridge said:
Kev, in all honesty just how many bets do you reckon to have struck at the festival, I am really keen to know because i operate at the complete opposite end of the spectrum with very few bets but hard hitting for my level.
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In all honesty? How many do I reckon?

It's not a guess, I know exactly... :encouragement:

208 placed for Cheltenham 2020 during 2019
484 placed for Cheltenham 2020 so far during 2020


I'll cover my strategy when I do my analysis, but there are a few races where I end up with the field backed for a guarenteed return, weighted towards the ones I still fancy the most.

The Ballymore, RSA, QMCC are three I've been able to do that with today :)
 
Kevloaf said:
In all honesty? How many do I reckon?

It's not a guess, I know exactly... :encouragement:

208 placed for Cheltenham 2020 during 2019
484 placed for Cheltenham 2020 so far during 2020


I'll cover my strategy when I do my analysis, but there are a few races where I end up with the field backed for a guarenteed return, weighted towards the ones I still fancy the most.

The Ballymore, RSA, QMCC are three I've been able to do that with today :)
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It’s like a ‘trading’ style of operating, isn’t it Kev?
Get everything significant covered and try to turn a profit in each race.
Cashout can help a lot with this way of building a book for a race, which you use well.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
It’s like a ‘trading’ style of operating, isn’t it Kev?
Get everything significant covered and try to turn a profit in each race.
Cashout can help a lot with this way of building a book for a race, which you use well.
Click to expand...

Yeah absolutely, it'd be too difficult to do without cashout now for me. I've gotten so used to it; being able to take plenty of calculated risks that high reward.

I should actually have tried a few more multiples early on like this (I see your Shishkin one clicked - well done) ..... I made a loss on multiples last year so trimmed right back, but in theory I should be able to capitilise in the same way I do race-to-race.

Anwyay, that's more for the summary at the end, not the morning of the best day of the week :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
In all honesty? How many do I reckon?

It's not a guess, I know exactly... :encouragement:

208 placed for Cheltenham 2020 during 2019
484 placed for Cheltenham 2020 so far during 2020


I'll cover my strategy when I do my analysis, but there are a few races where I end up with the field backed for a guarenteed return, weighted towards the ones I still fancy the most.

The Ballymore, RSA, QMCC are three I've been able to do that with today :)
Click to expand...

Kev, wow I can see where your'e coming from and you hit the value so often, I take my hat off to you.

I have to operate in a more restrained manner on the basis of all-in or half all-in just to test my depth of conviction.
 
Stormy Antarctic said:
Has anyone any love for Recent Revelations? I thought Davy rode some super races yesterday but was a bit unlucky. He just looks so confident on any of these handicappers that he rides.
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I've been striking off my suggestions as the winner of the race has never run at Cheltenham before, and he's the one I've settled on.

Plus, y'know, Davy in a handicap
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah absolutely, it'd be too difficult to do without cashout now for me. I've gotten so used to it; being able to take plenty of calculated risks that high reward.

I should actually have tried a few more multiples early on like this (I see your Shishkin one clicked - well done) ..... I made a loss on multiples last year so trimmed right back, but in theory I should be able to capitilise in the same way I do race-to-race.

Anwyay, that's more for the summary at the end, not the morning of the best day of the week :highly_amused:
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Yep, multiples are for the potential big hit, I tend to do £2 units on yankees, and base when to put one on is at the time I see a horse I fancy, at a big price, to build one around.

All four have to be 16/1 or more, antepost, to have a big chance to contract in price, and a big max payout, that’s why I don’t have Envoi Allen (for example) in any of them.

Thank goodness I felt Shishkin at 33/1 was the one, and after placing that bet the four horses ran 7 more times between them, and won them all, which led to massive price collapses on all of them, and an unusually big cashout opportunity before the Festival even started.

Probably unlikely to happen that well again, but with the stakes I put on, it’s doesn’t cost much to have a go. Good to be on-course to cashout on it as soon as Carefully Selected appeared unlikely to progress from third, the few seconds advantage over tv pictures probably made a big difference. :applause:
 
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robith said:
I've been striking off my suggestions as the winner of the race has never run at Cheltenham before, and he's the one I've settled on.

Plus, y'know, Davy in a handicap
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Just watched replays of Recent Revelations last three hurdle races and Stormy Atlantic I reckon you're onto something here.

All three runs were over 2 miles.

The first was on heavy ground at Fairyhouse in November where he started 66-1 in a field of 14 and was way out the back but galloped on strongly to finish fifth, beaten 25 lengths by Cerberus. RR was the only horse who matched the winner's pace over the final furlong.

Then he won a 17-runner Cork maiden in December on soft after the leader Belfast Banter fell at the second last. RR was again finishing strongly and may have won even if BB had stood up. It would certainly have been close.

His final run was on good to yielding at Naas early last month where he faced Aramax on level weights. The pair went clear in the straight and were neck and neck at the last where RR made a slight error and went down by 8 lengths.

Today RR gets 6lbs from Aramax.

But I think the strongest part of the case for RR is that conditions at Cheltenham will again be very testing - even though the going has eased after a dry night - and the stamina horses are likely to prevail.

RR looked a strong finisher in those conditions at Fairyhouse and Cork. Maybe Aramax was just too quick for him on good to yielding. But with the softer ground and weight advantage he should get closer today.

And as Stormy pointed out, Davy can't keep hitting the crossbar - he's going to find the net soon in one of these handicaps.

You can get 22-1 each way 1-5 with the William Hill boost.
 
Clemencia out to 100/1. Massively overpriced e/w 5 places with PP. 90/1 5 places with Bet365 1/4 odds
 
Kevloaf said:
In all honesty? How many do I reckon?

It's not a guess, I know exactly... :encouragement:

208 placed for Cheltenham 2020 during 2019
484 placed for Cheltenham 2020 so far during 2020


I'll cover my strategy when I do my analysis, but there are a few races where I end up with the field backed for a guarenteed return, weighted towards the ones I still fancy the most.

The Ballymore, RSA, QMCC are three I've been able to do that with today :)
Click to expand...

Should start a book (a real one) - Dutching The Festival :victorious:
 
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