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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

Still think it is way too early to be so confident in the novice races. I think one thing most agree on is whatever race Envoi Allen goes for it looks like he will win (similar to Samcros novice hurdle year).

Obviously we can only judge what we have seen to date but given that Elliott always sends his horses out earlier than Mullins it is always worth waiting. As Scooby said the prices for KD last season held at a decent price for some time prior to him running and after he had ran.

We also haven’t had too much of note to run in the UK as yet, couple from smaller yards have looked pretty good but I’m sure Henderson Nicholls and possibly even Tizzard will have 1 or 2 that will make an impression when they are seen.
 
Craigy14 said:
Still think it is way too early to be so confident in the novice races. I think one thing most agree on is whatever race Envoi Allen goes for it looks like he will win (similar to Samcros novice hurdle year).

Obviously we can only judge what we have seen to date but given that Elliott always sends his horses out earlier than Mullins it is always worth waiting. As Scooby said the prices for KD last season held at a decent price for some time prior to him running and after he had ran.

We also haven’t had too much of note to run in the UK as yet, couple from smaller yards have looked pretty good but I’m sure Henderson Nicholls and possibly even Tizzard will have 1 or 2 that will make an impression when they are seen.
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Prices are mental this season. Win your maiden hurdle impressively and before you know it your 10/1 <

Unexcepted
Andy dufresne

Are priced like they've already won there respective graded races.

Thyme hill is well found in the bartlett market now too. Which although he looks the ideal type, theres nothing much had there chance yet. And is a grave yard for favs.
 
Scooby91 said:
Prices are mental this season. Win your maiden hurdle impressively and before you know it your 10/1 <

Unexcepted
Andy dufresne

Are priced like they've already won there respective graded races.

Thyme hill is well found in the bartlett market now too. Which although he looks the ideal type, theres nothing much had there chance yet. And is a grave yard for favs.
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Prices have been mental for a few seasons now IMO.

I think it's a sign of the times, we have to take what is available or not at all, because the prices definitely don't last long (like they used to), but then again, the two you mentioned above are still bigger after one run than Samcro was and what Envoi Allen was this season.

I guess you have to weigh up what is about in terms of opposition, what is due to come out, when it's due to come out etc.... (all easier said than done), could wait for an entry and then back also.

Cash out helps in a big way, because you can risk backing pre-race and if it flops take a small loss.

With regards to Supreme horses, we probably have around a month before we know where we stand with regards to the talent out there, once January comes I'd be surprised if we find the Supreme winner that hasn't already had his/her seasonal debut.
 
Thing is as well on the day whichever race Envoi Allen doesn’t go for will have a large field and some great value. If he goes Supreme a lot will go for the Ballymore instead and vice versa
 
Its a good point about prices with the cash out, a lot of the risk is taken out of the usual antepost bet so the price reflects this. The problem is its the big firms that have the cash out and lots of us cant bet with them, once one firm goes short its not long before most follow suit.
 
Given Envoi Allen's prominence in the betting for both Novice races, surely Blue Sari is the one currently over priced.

The closest any horse has got to Envoi Allen in a competitive race, Blue Sari will look to go back in trip, from what WPM said after his race. Also entered in the PP Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas.

He can jump a hurdle, we've seen that enough, and although it was a close finish on hurdles debut, it was over 2m 4f, which possibly was a stretch too far for his first time out this season.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Given Envoi Allen's prominence in the betting for both Novice races, surely Blue Sari is the one currently over priced.

The closest any horse has got to Envoi Allen in a competitive race, Blue Sari will look to go back in trip, from what WPM said after his race. Also entered in the PP Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas.

He can jump a hurdle, we've seen that enough, and although it was a close finish on hurdles debut, it was over 2m 4f, which possibly was a stretch too far for his first time out this season.
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Completely agree.
 
Scooby91 said:
Prices are mental this season. Win your maiden hurdle impressively and before you know it your 10/1 <

Unexcepted
Andy dufresne

Are priced like they've already won there respective graded races.

Thyme hill is well found in the bartlett market now too. Which although he looks the ideal type, theres nothing much had there chance yet. And is a grave yard for favs.
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Couldn’t agree anymore mate, seems to have been a lot worse this year.

I do hope there are some from the UK that get us excited, seems to be most of note are from Ireland and the big 2 which makes trying to get a good price pretty hard unless you take a stab like so many have done with Fly Smart prior to them running. Soon as anything runs unless your watching and online to back during the race you’ve no chance.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Ballymore I have him down for
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any particular reason ?
Breeding is quite speedy. same dad as Envoi Allen, but dams sire only a 10f horse, unlike Envoi who was 2m plus.
entered in future champions over 2 mile at xmas too.
Of all JP's, aside from Unexcepted, his breeding suggests 2 would be fine.

I've backed for both, but only recently for the 2 mile to be fair.
 
quevega said:
any particular reason ?
Breeding is quite speedy. same dad as Envoi Allen, but dams sire only a 10f horse, unlike Envoi who was 2m plus.
entered in future champions over 2 mile at xmas too.
Of all JP's, aside from Unexcepted, his breeding suggests 2 would be fine.

I've backed for both, but only recently for the 2 mile to be fair.
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Well I fully expect Envoi Allen to take up his option of the Ballymore also, so it's in keeping with him I guess that that is where I expect Elixir D'ainay to go also.

Yea, had a look at the Future Champions race, there seems a lot that definitely don't look like 2milers that are entered in that, so don't take that as it is tbh
 
Any thought's on Front view for this race - Joseph o brien . / J.p ??.
 
BigChaang said:
Any thought's on Front view for this race - Joseph o brien . / J.p ??.
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Muddled form lines. Deep breath........Beat Entoucas in receipt of 3lbs who in turn lost to Thatsy. Thatsy lost to Latest Exhibition who was comprehensively beaten by Abacadabras easily who travelled on the snaff. Front Views best performance was 7 lengths behind EA in receipt of 3lbs and EA was hard held at the time. Using Envoi Allen as a yardstick I think its fair to assume Abacadabras is a much better bet at 10's than Front View is at 20's. I'd caveat that with Front View is only 4 so could improve massively but thats the way I'd view it so far.
 
That's Exactly how i saw it Charlie !! , :triumphant::highly_amused: , And yet another excellent.
mention of Snaff:triumphant:.
 
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