Supreme Novices 2018

[Scooby91]

Scoobs,
You need one of those to win to get your money back

:highly_amused:

You will be suprised how selective iv been.

Annamix 25/1 20/1 out
Dostal phil 48.0 very likely out.
Lalor 48.0 out
western Ryder 80.0 unlikely.
Black ops 360.0 out


Real steel
Antey
Vision des flos (put him in a 2 mile maiden)
Claimantakin forgan
Mengli khan
Dortmund park
Early doors
Francin

All The above at 3 figures left in.
Delirant avg 68.0

Debuchet any race
Red jack any race
If the cap fits any race
Samcro any racr


If I traded out mengli khan alone id be well In the green with all the rest as free bets. But I don't lay off.

 

[doctorwu]

Scoob,
:highly_amused:
We'll have a better idea of the supreme after the Deloitte, Moscow.

 

[Scooby91]

Scoob,
:highly_amused:
We'll have a better idea of the supreme after the Deloitte, Moscow.

Don't worry I know what I'm doing

Winter soldier next on the hit list as soon as entry.
I'd back Daly tiger at 3 figures.

Nothing else id be worried about.

 

[Robante]

Don't worry I know what I'm doing

Winter soldier next on the hit list as soon as entry.
I'd back Daly tiger at 3 figures.

Nothing else id be worried about.

Slate House and Pym the only two outside of that list I’d give a squeak to. The former should be stepped up in trip (though his form is working out nicely and that might convince them that he’d go ok in a strong run supreme), and Pym will need to be out soon (whispers that he’s taking time to come to hand)

 

[Scooby91]

Slate House and Pym the only two outside of that list I’d give a squeak to. The former should be stepped up in trip (though his form is working out nicely and that might convince them that he’d go ok in a strong run supreme), and Pym will need to be out soon (whispers that he’s taking time to come to hand)

I have slate house for the ballymore.
I honestly would like his chances in a supreme though. But the tizzard's really seem to want him in the ballymore.

It's not whispers on Pym. Henderson has said in his blog plenty of times. Should be out fairly soon though

 

[Robante]

I have slate house for the ballymore.
I honestly would like his chances in a supreme though. But the tizzard's really seem to want him in the ballymore.

It's not whispers on Pym. Henderson has said in his blog plenty of times. Should be out fairly soon though

Samcro really is a dire price. If he's got Slate House, If The Cap Fits, Getabird as competition then he's going to have to be very, very good, and it's a guessing game at the moment to know what he'll find when challenged and off the bridle

 

[Scooby91]

Samcro really is a dire price. If he's got Slate House, If The Cap Fits, Getabird as competition then he's going to have to be very, very good, and it's a guessing game at the moment to know what he'll find when challenged and off the bridle

I won't go into that again. But it will be a whole different ball game to what he has currently faced.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

For what he's achieved so far I think Mengli Khan is a fantastic price still. Of those that have run he has many of the Irish contingent beat through racing against them or form lines. There are obviously a few still to test him, and the UK contenders, but if he was in the Ricci colours or even trained by Henderson over here he would be south of 7/2 probably worse for being in the pink & green colours, based on what he has won.

 

[Robante]

For what he's achieved so far I think Mengli Khan is a fantastic price still. Of those that have run he has many of the Irish contingent beat through racing against them or form lines. There are obviously a few still to test him, and the UK contenders, but if he was in the Ricci colours or even trained by Henderson over here he would be south of 7/2 probably worse for being in the pink & green colours, based on what he has won.

Agree that 7s is more than fair, especially when you factor in that he is likely to improve for the better spring ground - that alone would be a worry for a lot of the other potential runners towards the head of the market

 

[Can't Catch Me]

For what he's achieved so far I think Mengli Khan is a fantastic price still. Of those that have run he has many of the Irish contingent beat through racing against them or form lines. There are obviously a few still to test him, and the UK contenders, but if he was in the Ricci colours or even trained by Henderson over here he would be south of 7/2 probably worse for being in the pink & green colours, based on what he has won.

Couldn’t agree more. Especially when you consider up to half of the next 12 in the betting won’t even go for the race!

Although it’s getting to the stage where I’m getting a bit worried that he’s so big. He’s been really well backed every race this season. Why not antepost like Samcro?

 

[Scooby91]

Agree that 7s is more than fair, especially when you factor in that he is likely to improve for the better spring ground - that alone would be a worry for a lot of the other potential runners towards the head of the market

Atleast mengli has achieved something there, he has some nice horses behind him.

Prime example
Demon D'AUNOU
Comes out wins on the bit as he liked, looks a machine.
Races against 2 nice horses next time out.
Its classed as he's disappointed, not ran his race.
He could well have improved from his 1st run, and bumped into 2 much better horses.

Same for palmers hill / dame de compagnie./ makitorix / le richebourg
It all looks easy until your taken out of your comfort zone. And you find out what they have in the tank.

 

[archie]

I imagine the MK odds are very simply explained by there not being much money for him at that price.

You can't crib his form this season but the fact remains that he isn't bred like a Supreme winner and connections are not usually associated with Supreme runners.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm not convinced MK will improve on better ground like Gordon has suggested. By all accounts he's a massive horse... spring ground a slight worry perhaps?

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm not convinced MK will improve on better ground like Gordon has suggested. By all accounts he's a massive horse... spring ground a slight worry perhaps?

My main concern, despite harping on about his current price, is the spring ground. His flat form on good or anything near good is hardly inspiring. Fear he may get outpaced, but he stays all the way to the line and travels well in the races we have seen so far, so who knows.

 

[Scooby91]

My main concern, despite harping on about his current price, is the spring ground. His flat form on good or anything near good is hardly inspiring. Fear he may get outpaced, but he stays all the way to the line and travels well in the races we have seen so far, so who knows.

Iv alwys believed good to soft in NH is closer to soft on the flat
And soft in NH is close to heavy ground on the flat.
If that makes sense??????

Dual purpose trainers always mentioning it.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I'm not convinced MK will improve on better ground like Gordon has suggested. By all accounts he's a massive horse... spring ground a slight worry perhaps?

Certainly a worry for me too. Especially on breeding. Although it was pretty decent ground when he won first time up at Navan this season and he seemed to travel really well that day. Still think the runner up may prove to be a decent horse as well.

 

[Robante]

He doesn't seem at all ground dependent i'd conclude, which is something that you couldn't say with confidence for a lot of the others aimed at this race. Decent form on all ground from the all weather at Kempton through to heavy ground at Navan suggests it all comes alike to him, just think he's a quality horse

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm certainly no expert on it, just would factor it in if he contracts in price again over Christmas on soft ground. Not like I'll be likely to go in again though anyway at this state

 

[Scooby91]

I'm certainly no expert on it, just would factor it in if he contracts in price again over Christmas on soft ground. Not like I'll be likely to go in again though anyway at this state

Lydia hislop just put mengli khan and supasundae up as her tips on the popular "road to Cheltenham" blog.
Nightmare when I'm trying to get a price on supasundae

 

[Robante]

I'm certainly no expert on it, just would factor it in if he contracts in price again over Christmas on soft ground. Not like I'll be likely to go in again though anyway at this state

Knowing the way this race is panning out for me by Christmas there will probably be 3 or 4 more that i haven't got covered that have come out and romped home first time by a combined 100+ lengths to consider :highly_amused: